Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 3 Preview
November 7, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The first MHSAA football finalists of this fall will celebrate this weekend, as four 8-player Semifinals will determine which teams move on to Marquette’s Superior Dome a week from Saturday.
And 64 11-player teams have completed half of the “Drive for Detroit,” with this weekend’s Regional Finals setting up next weekend’s Semifinals and opportunities to visit Ford Field for extended Thanksgiving.
Below are the matchups in all 10 divisions this weekend, with a quick look at one from each 11-player bracket and all four 8-player Semifinals. We suggest seeing them live, of course. But we have more opportunities to watch online as well.
This week’s FOX Sports Detroit Prep Zone matchups are Dearborn Fordson at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley and Clarkston at Lapeer in Division 1, and Warren DeLaSalle at Port Huron Northern in Division 2. Those all will stream free of charge on FOXSportsDetroit.com and on the FOX Sports app. At least five more games will be viewable on MHSAA.tv, either live with subscription or free after 72 hours.
Games are Friday unless noted. “Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid.
Division 1
Dearborn Fordson (10-1) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (11-0)
The Tractors showed they’re capable of beating anyone with last week’s 41-14 stunner of Detroit Cass Tech. Fordson is scoring 38 points per game while playing seven against playoff teams, and is a three-point Week 6 loss to Belleville from being undefeated. Chippewa Valley is the next giant up, coming off a 51-10 rematch win over Macomb Dakota and giving up only 15 points per game despite also playing seven against playoff qualifiers.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Clarkston (9-2) at Lapeer (11-0), West Bloomfield (9-2) at Belleville (11-0). SATURDAY Rockford (7-4) at Saline (10-1).
Division 2
Portage Northern (9-2) at Muskegon Mona Shores (10-1)
The Huskies have won seven straight games and last week celebrated their first District title. The defense has shined; Northern is giving up 12 points per game and allowed more than 21 once, in a Week 4 loss to East Lansing. The Sailors beat Jenison last week for the second time this season, extending the margin from seven points in the first meeting to 39 in the rematch. Averaging 44 points per game, they may present the toughest offensive challenge the Huskies have faced.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Livonia Franklin (7-4) at Birmingham Groves (9-2), Midland (8-3) at Walled Lake Western (8-3), Warren DeLaSalle (9-2) at Port Huron Northern (10-1).
Division 3
Cedar Springs (10-1) vs. Muskegon (11-0) at Grand Haven
After eliminating Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold co-champs East Grand Rapids and Grand Rapids Christian the last two weeks, Muskegon takes on O-K White winner Cedar Springs. The Red Hawks last week won their first District title since 2000 and boast a defense giving up 10.5 points per game. The opportunity to make history in this one is even greater – the reigning Division 3 champ Big Reds have won 25 straight games and scored at least 42 points nine weeks running.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Parma Western (10-1) at Zeeland East (10-1), Detroit Martin Luther King (9-2) at Allen Park (9-2). SATURDAY Farmington (8-3) vs. DeWitt (11-0) at Lansing Catholic.
Division 4
Escanaba (9-2) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-1), Saturday
Grand Rapids Catholic Central has fared well against the Eskymos the last two seasons, winning their 2016 Regional Final 34-0 and last season’s Semifinal 24-0 on the way to claiming Division 4 championships both years. But Escanaba can find encouragement in a couple of places. The 24 points in last year’s meeting were the fewest GRCC scored in the playoffs. And four of the Escanaba offense’s six highest-scoring games this fall have come over the last five weeks.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY St. Clair (9-2) at Williamston (9-2). SATURDAY Holland Christian (8-3) at Edwardsburg (11-0), Chelsea (8-3) at Farmington Hills Harrison (8-3).
Division 5
Reed City (11-0) at Saginaw Swan Valley (11-0), Saturday
Reed City is playing in a Regional Final for the fourth time in five seasons, and as an undefeated team for the second time in three. Adding to that familiarity with the big stage is a familiar foe – Swan Valley defeated the Coyotes last year 29-14 in a Semifinal. Reed City has lost only three regular season games this decade, but there’s definitely something different this fall – notably a defense that is giving up 6.2 points per game. That unit will be key against a Vikings team scoring 43 points per and giving up only 8.9.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Detroit Denby (9-2) at Marine City (9-2). SATURDAY Hudsonville Unity Christian (9-2) vs. Kalamazoo United (11-0) at Vicksburg, Frankenmuth (9-2) at Portland (11-0).
Division 6
Montague (9-2) at Schoolcraft (9-2)
The Eagles are playing for their first trip to the Semifinals since 2001, and have been in the mix making the Regional Final in 2013 and suffering their only losses of the season in District Finals in 2012 and 2016. Schoolcraft has played eight games against playoff teams this fall and still is averaging 45 points per game. Montague, playing in its second straight Regional Final, is averaging 44 points per contest with seven against playoff teams – and losses to only undefeated Division 5 contenders Reed City and Portland. Schoolcraft’s defeats also came to Division 5 playoff teams; Kalamazoo United is still alive.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Kingsley at Traverse City St. Francis (11-0), Blissfield (7-4) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-0). SATURDAY Montrose (9-2) at Flint Hamady (11-0).
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia (11-0) vs. New Lothrop (10-1) at Chesaning
An interesting note about P-W’s back-to-back Division 7 championship runs the last two seasons: Of six playoff games not including Semifinals, only three were played at home. The Pirates had to win District and Regional titles on the road last season, and beat the Hornets 35-14 to clinch the former. New Lothrop beat the first (Cass City) and second-place (Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker) teams from the Greater Thumb Conference West the last two weeks to set up this rematch.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Roscommon (10-1) at Lake City (11-0), Riverview Gabriel Richard (7-4) at Madison Heights Madison (11-0). SATURDAY Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (9-2) at Cassopolis (11-0).
Division 8
Breckenridge (11-0) at Ishpeming (11-0), Saturday
The Huskies will head north seeking their first Regional title and hoping a defense giving up just 4.3 points per game can lock down an Ishpeming offense scoring 42. Breckenridge also made the Regional Final last season, in Division 7, losing to Lake City by just two points. The Hematites shut out 2017 semifinalist Iron River West Iron County for the second time in five weeks to win the District title.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Flint Beecher (8-3) at Harbor Beach (10-1). SATURDAY Mendon (7-4) at Holton (7-4), Detroit Southeastern (8-3) vs. Reading (11-0) at Hillsdale High School.
8-Player Division 1
SEMIFINALS
AuGres-Sims (11-0) at Pickford (11-0), Saturday
Before last week, these teams stacked up even more similarly than their records might indicate – Pickford’s six-point win over Suttons Bay in their Regional Final was its first close game since Week 3, and AuGres-Sims hasn’t allowed an opponent to get closer than 38 points all fall. Quarterback Caden Zeien has thrown for 1,928 yards and 34 touchdowns with only one interception for AuGres-Sims (plus run for 673 yards and 10 TDs), while his Pickford counterpart James Storey has thrown for 1,527 yards and 28 touchdowns and run for 782 yards and 15 scores. The Panthers also made the Semifinals the last two years and this will be their fifth time total trying to make the MHSAA Finals for the first time. For the Wolverines, this Semifinal is a first.
Colon (10-1) at Morrice (11-0)
Morrice is coming off its first Regional title since 1996 – although the Orioles did give up their first points since mid-September last week to Wyoming Tri-unity Christian in a 44-14 win. They are allowing 5.4 per game points overall while gaining nearly 360 yards in total offense. Colon’s lone defeat was to Tri-unity, 22-14 three weeks ago, but the Magi rebounded quickly to make their first Semifinal. Quarterback Hunter Nowak leads the Orioles' attack with 1,757 yards and 30 touchdowns rushing and 517 yards passing. Colon boasts a pair of 1,000 backs in Brandon Crawford (1,607 yards, 21 TDs) and quarterback Philip Alva (1,035/16 rushing, 461/8 passing).
8-Player Division 2
SEMIFINALS
Cedarville (7-4) at Rapid River (8-3)
Three of seven Great Lakes Conference East teams are still alive for MHSAA championships, and these two met in Week 7 with Rapid River claiming a 28-20 win to help lock up third place in the league. Rapid River downed reigning 8-player Division 2 champ Crystal Falls Forest Park last week and will be aware of the possibilities of a rematch disappointment – the Rockets opened these playoffs by beating Engadine by two after losing to the Eagles by 18 only two weeks prior. Cedarville is rolling again, having won its two playoff games by a combined 88-6 score, and led by quarterback Tristan Masuga (1,730 yards/21 TDs passing).
Portland St. Patrick (7-4) at Onekama (9-2), Saturday
The Shamrocks seemed all but forgotten a month ago and tied for fifth in the Southern Central Athletic Association A. But with four straight wins they’re back in the Semifinals for the second straight season and looking to get back to Superior Dome after finishing runner-up in Division 2 a year ago. Onekama, meanwhile, will be playing in its first Semifinal to continue an impressive five-year climb. The Portagers are giving up only 7.4 points per game and lost this fall only to Division 1 playoff teams Tri-unity and Suttons Bay – by a combined seven points. They've run for nearly 1,900 yards over nine games (two wins were forfeits) with Aaron Powers averaging 11.5 yards per carry and Ben Acton 8.9.
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PHOTO: A Reed City ball carrier breaks through an opening during the Coyotes’ 38-7 District Final win over Clare last week. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)