Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Memphis Tastes Victory, Plays for More

By Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com

September 12, 2018

Winning was such an unfamiliar feeling for the Memphis varsity football team that when the Yellowjackets picked up a victory in Week 1, coach Pat Connell had to give some of his players a push when it came to enjoying it.

“We call (the victory formation), they take a knee and nobody knows what to do,” Connell said. “The kids on the field are starting to celebrate, and I looked at the kids behind me and said, ‘Hey, this is when you celebrate.’”

Memphis’ 14-12 win against Burton Bentley on Aug. 23 snapped a 26-game losing streak for the Yellowjackets, who hadn’t been victorious since Week 1 of the 2015 season. It was a cathartic moment for the players, coaching staff, school and community – one that won’t soon be forgotten.

“Honestly, I’d say it was the best feeling I’ve ever felt on that field,” senior wingback and defensive tackle Cole Myers said. “My entire time playing football at my school, we hadn’t gotten a win in the last two to three years. It felt like the turning point of our program.”

One win was great, and something Memphis desperately needed. But while everyone involved in the Memphis program knows things are looking up, they also know there is plenty of work still to be done to turn things completely around. That was evident in 44-0 and 42-0 losses to Ubly and Brown City, respectively, in the following weeks.

But it’s work the coaches and players are now willing to put in.

“I enjoyed it; it was nice to have my first Memphis football win,” senior quarterback and safety Cale Shivers said. “I’ve played football my whole life and been on winning teams my whole life, so I know that if we want to win more games, we have to keep working.”

When Connell and his staff took over, Memphis had just finished its first 0-9 season in 2016, which came on the heels of back-to-back 1-8 seasons.

During those struggles, numbers had gotten so low for the Yellowjackets that there were talks of prematurely ending a season -- not to end the losing, but to keep kids safe.

To build the program, Connell first needed players, and to get players, he needed to be recruiting in the hallways. Unfortunately for him, he teaches at Port Huron Northern, a good 30-minute drive from Memphis, as does his assistant Casey Kucsera. Assistant coach Pete Fox teaches at St. Clair, which is closer, but clearly not in the building.

“That first year when we took over in April or May, we were trying to get any kids, but it was a slow process,” Connell said. “We were taking personal days to set up in the school to go meet kids.”

The idea of simply playing a junior varsity schedule was brought up, but Connell said that if there was just one senior who wanted to play, the Yellowjackets would play as a varsity team so that player could have that experience. They wound up with 10, and while it was another 0-9 season, that fall was a building block.

“That first year was just about making it fun,” Connell said. “It isn’t us coming in to yell and scream at you; we want you to come out and enjoy football. It was opening the weight room, and sometimes kids would stumble in, and we were developing that trust. Then the word started getting out.”

When comparing 0-9 seasons, it can be hard to find tangible improvement. But Memphis scored more points (60-39) and allowed fewer (427-538) while playing a similar schedule in 2017.

Most importantly, though, the players were noticing that things were different.

“Kids didn’t really see the progression until other coaches and players from teams were saying, ‘Even though you guys lost, we can tell you really look like a football team now,’’ Shivers said. “And we were hearing from the public that we actually looked good out there.”

Despite not winning a game, Memphis did pick up some momentum.

“When I first got out to Memphis, I would ask kids, ‘Are you interested in playing football?’ and it was, ‘I don’t know, maybe,’” said Connell, who is up to 28 players on his roster. “This offseason, it was, ‘Are you playing,’ and they were like, ‘Yes sir, I’m playing.’ We had like 20 kids who were all in on football. Now, that didn’t mean that they realized they had to be there three days a week in the winter lifting, but they were excited.”

The excitement grew after the opening win against Burton Bentley, a game that was filled with drama. After Memphis took a 14-12 lead on Shivers’ second touchdown pass of the evening and his ensuing 2-point conversion run, it had a chance to ice the game by running out the clock with a few first downs. Before that could happen, however, the lights -- which were set on a timer -- went out in the stadium.

When they came back on about 20 minutes later, Burton Bentley forced a Memphis punt to give itself one more chance.

Fortunately for the Yellowjackets, that drive ended with a turnover, and Memphis was able to run a play out of the victory formation for the first time in three years.

“I wouldn’t even call it remembering how to win,” Myers said. “Because I’ve never been on a winning team for football. It was something new.”

The feeling, Myers said, made him want to win more. And while Weeks 2 and 3 were a return to Earth for the Yellowjackets, those defeats haven’t dampened their spirits or their outlook. Connell knows there is still plenty of work to be done in the weight room and on the field to have his team competing with its Greater Thumb Conference East opponents.

But his players believe in what he and his staff are doing, and they are now starting to believe in themselves.

“It might take a couple more wins before people (in the school) start realizing this is a different program from past years,” Myers said. “(A successful season would be) to put in everything that we possibly can and have more wins than losses at this point. I would say five to six wins would be what I would hope out of this season.”

Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Memphis players huddle up before a game this season. (Middle) The Yellowjackets defense held Burton Bentley to 12 points. (Photos courtesy of the Memphis football program.)