Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Grayling QB Takes Over at Crunch Time
October 27, 2017
By Dennis Chase
Special for Second Half
GRAYLING – For the Grayling Vikings, it was Just-in time.
Propelled by senior quarterback Justin Nicholas, Grayling pulled out victories the last two weeks to secure an eighth MHSAA football playoff berth in the last nine years.
All the first-year starter at quarterback did was complete a staggering 66 of 120 passes for 995 yards and 15 touchdowns over the final eight quarters of the regular season to keep the 6-3 Vikings alive. Grayling travels to 8-1 Reed City tonight for a first-round Division 5 playoff game.
“We knew he had a golden arm,” Grayling coach Tim Sanchez said of Nicholas. “He just needed some reps, some time behind center. For quarterbacks, that first season can be tough. It doesn’t always come easy.
“But,” he added, “Justin’s made it look that way.”
In a wild 58-46 comeback win over Benzie Central in Week 8, Nicholas nearly set several MHSAA records by finishing 39 of 72 for 623 yards and eight scores. The 623 yards? Second to Omar Salih of Detroit Cesar Chavez Academy (674 yards in 2013). His 72 attempts? Second to Grayling’s Jimmy Osga (74 in 2008). His 39 completions? Two off the mark held by Osga, Jenison’s Steve Brander and Detroit Central’s Robert Hunt. The eight touchdowns? Second to Salih (nine in 2013).
It all came as a shock to Nicholas, who was more worried about a win than his stats that night. The Vikings trailed Benzie 46-30 after three quarters.
It was his older brother Darin, who was listening to the game on radio while watching from the stands, who alerted him afterwards.
“It’s still kind of surreal - 623 yards, that’s like video game stats,” Nicholas said. “When I came off the field, my brother said to me, ‘How does it feel to be in the record books?’ I kind of looked at him, not fully aware of what he was talking about. Then he said, ‘You just passed for more than 600 yards.’ I said, ‘C’mon, quit messing with me.’”
He wasn’t messing.
This past Friday, needing that all-important sixth win, Nicholas responded by completing 27 of 48 passes for 372 yards and seven more touchdowns in a 50-33 road triumph over Kalkaska.
“It was either win or go home,” Nicholas said. “We needed those last two games (to qualify), and I didn’t want to let anyone down.”
Grayling started the season 4-0, then lost three in a row to playoff-bound Boyne City (9-0), Traverse City St. Francis (8-1) and Elk Rapids (7-2). In the Week 6 loss to St. Francis, the 6-foot, 230-pound Nicholas suffered a severe ankle sprain during the first half that ended his night. In addition, his go-to receiver, Nick Hunter, broke his right arm in the contest. Up to that point in the season, the junior receiver had hauled in more than 40 passes for close to 600 yards and six touchdowns.
The following Monday, Hunter’s older brother, Chris, another top receiver, started experiencing some pain. He confided in Nicholas, one of his best friends.
“Justin had an appendix scare earlier in the season, just before the Boyne game, and I was telling him my symptoms,” Hunter recalled. “He said, ‘Dude, that’s not good.’ I was like, ‘Nah, it’s probably just cramps.’”
Soon, Hunter said he could barely move. He ended up in the emergency room and had surgery the following morning to have his appendix removed.
Just like that, the spread-oriented Vikings had a quarterback with a bum ankle and were minus their two leading receivers.
But Nicholas did not intend to sit, even though he knew rest would be best.
“I wasn’t going to let my team down,” he said. “If I’m capable of playing, I’m going to play.”
That’s what he told Sanchez at the Sunday film session following the St. Francis loss.
“I said, ‘I don’t know about that,’” Sanchez said. “(His ankle) looked bad. In fact, I thought he broke it at first. But, he said, ‘Nope, I’m playing.’ It was literally a game-time decision.”
Nicholas did not practice all week and with personnel changes at the receiving positions the Vikings struggled in a homecoming loss to Elk Rapids.
“The chemistry was not there,” Sanchez said.
Grayling also missed Nicholas’s ability to run the ball. He had rushed for nearly 400 yards and 11 touchdowns prior to the injury. That put even more emphasis on the passing game.
The backup quarterback, Logan Joseph, became Nicholas’s No. 1 target. In the last three games of the regular season, Joseph caught 34 passes for nearly 500 yards and five touchdowns.
Still, the Vikings were on the verge of a fourth consecutive loss in Week 8 when Benzie Central had them on the ropes.
“We were down two scores starting the fourth quarter,” Sanchez said. “A lot of kids/adults put their heads down when adversity hits. But Justin wasn’t done. He led us to four straight touchdowns to keep us alive. That was huge. He carried us.”
Chris Hunter was watching it play out from the sidelines. He sensed the urgency in the fourth quarter when the situation appeared dire.
“I remember looking at Justin and saying, ‘Dude, we’ve got three losses already. This is the season,’’ Hunter said. “He said, ‘I can do it. We’re going to win this game. And he went out and did it.’”
Two weeks after his surgery, Chris Hunter returned to action in the regular season finale at Kalkaska. He caught three passes for 67 yards and three touchdowns. The Vikings were back in the playoffs.
“When we won at Kingsford (in last year’s playoffs), that was hands down the most memorable game of our careers,”’ Hunter said. “We wanted another chance to do it again, make another little playoff run.”
For Nicholas, it was icing on the cake. This is his third year on varsity. Although he started at quarterback as a freshman on the JV team, the Vikings were set at that position with Cam Summers, a three-year starter, who earned all-state honors and played in the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association All-Star game last summer.
Nicholas found other ways to contribute. He played running back, linebacker, safety, defensive end.
“He was our best defensive lineman last year,” Sanchez said. “We played him there this year until he got hurt. He’s a tough, smart kid.”
Concordia University offered him a scholarship to play defensive end after he camped there this summer.
But with Summers graduating, Nicholas slid into the quarterback role and assumed a leadership position, something he had dreamed about since he was a ball boy in elementary school.
“Justin was behind a very good player (Summers), but he never complained,” Sanchez said. “He understood Cam was the guy. So he said, ‘Where else can I play? Where else can I help the team’?
“With Cam gone, Justin seized the opportunity this year.”
Through nine games, Nicholas is 216 of 379 for 2,965 yards and 28 touchdowns.
“I knew he had it in him, but I’d be lying if I told you I knew he would pass for 3,000 yards and almost 30 touchdowns,” Sanchez said. “It would be unfair to expect that from somebody.”
Unless you’re Justin Nicholas.
“It’s kind of our thing at Grayling,” Nicholas said. “We’ll throw the ball until you make us stop.”
Nicholas can rattle off the names of all the Grayling quarterbacks that preceded him – several are in the MHSAA record book.
“I thought those guys were gods,” the 17-year-old said. “I thought, I can’t wait to be there one day and get my chance.”
When it came, he was ready.
“He’s a great kid, a great teammate,” Hunter said. “He’s had a terrific year, maybe one of the top-five years in Michigan.”
Dennis Chase worked 32 years as a sportswriter at the Traverse City Record-Eagle, including as sports editor from 2000-14. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Grayling quarterback Justin Nicholas surveys his options during a Week 1 win over Roscommon. (Middle) Nicholas prepares to run against Kalkaska last week. (Below) Nicholas unloads a pass during the Week 3 victory over Kingsley. (Photos courtesy of the Grayling football program.)