Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 9 Preview

October 19, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Maybe because it still feels like summer some days downstate, but it seems like we’ve gotten to Week 9 of the football season more quickly this fall.

So let’s get right into it. Playoff fields will be announced at 7 p.m. Sunday on FOX Sports Detroit PLUS. But there is still much to be decided. There are 80 automatic playoff bids still available in 11-player – this observer’s guess is that 55 will be filled by weekend’s conclusion – and a handful of league titles remain up for grabs.

Our “Drive for Detroit” preview below might look like it’s not hitting on some of the best games in your area this weekend, but that’s by design – today’s report, powered by MI Student Aid, is focused on those final league-deciding battles, some key rivalries, but for the most part picks out games that could have the most bearing on who continues on into next week.

There were 20 games statewide Thursday, and those results like all this weekend can be found on the MHSAA Score Center. Click to monitor records and playoff points for all 614 football teams in Michigan this weekend as the field of 288 continues to take its final shape. Click for more information on the “Sunday Selection Show” and a list of games that will be broadcast live tonight on MHSAA.tv.

Bay & Thumb

Clare (7-1) at Beaverton (8-0), Friday

This has been Beaverton’s season, starting with wins over Breckenridge and Harbor Beach – the only losses for those teams as both have gone on to win league titles – and continuing through a dominant run over the first six games of the Jack Pine Conference schedule. The Beavers tonight can clinch their first league championship since 1989, but the greatest obstacle of all stands in the way. Clare also is 6-0 in the league, having lost only to still-undefeated Ithaca on opening night, and has won or shared nine of the last 10 Jack Pine titles. The winner tonight claims the whole thing.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Williamston (5-3) at Lake Fenton (7-1), Midland (7-1) at Midland Dow (7-1), Flint Carman-Ainsworth (5-3) at Lapeer (5-3), Croswell-Lexington (5-3) at Goodrich (7-1).

Greater Detroit

Detroit East English (8-0) vs. Detroit Martin Luther King (7-1) at Ford Field, Friday

This Detroit Public School League A Final might be the most important game between King and East English since East English was formed out of the former Crockett and Finney high schools in 2012. King is a regular in this league finale but usually faces Detroit Cass Tech, which instead it defeated in last week’s semifinal 17-7. After falling to East English in their first meeting ever in 2012, the Crusaders have won the last seven games between the two – including taking two from the Bulldogs in back-to-back weeks in 2016 by a combined 10 points.  

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Madison Heights Lamphere (5-3) at Madison Heights Madison (8-0), Canton (7-1) at Livonia Churchill (7-1), SATURDAY Dearborn Divine Child (7-1) vs. Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard (7-1) at Ford Field, Warren DeLaSalle (6-2) vs. Detroit Catholic Central (5-3) at Ford Field.

Mid-Michigan

Okemos (5-3) at East Lansing (6-2), Friday

The Trojans started this season 1-2 taking losses to Dearborn Divine Child and Grand Ledge, which are a combined 14-2. Riding a defense that has given up a combined 28 points over the last four weeks, East Lansing battled through most of the rest of the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue and is headed to the playoffs for the second straight season thanks in part to three wins by five points or fewer. Okemos started 4-0 but then lost three straight before getting back on the positive side last week against Holt. This season has been a success regardless, with more wins than the last two combined, but the Chiefs would love to beat an old rival to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Saranac (5-3) at Blanchard Montabella (4-4), Ionia (4-4) at Lake Odessa Lakewood (7-1), Marshall (4-4) at Portland (7-1), St. Louis (5-3) at Breckenridge (7-1).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Traverse City St. Francis (8-0) at Boyne City (8-0), Friday

The matchup has become one of the best small-school games statewide each season. It’s decided the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends championship the last three years with one of the two teams then going on to at least the Division 6 Regional Finals each of those seasons. Like last year, these teams meet tonight both undefeated in league play. St. Francis handed Boyne City a 22-0 defeat in 2016 and also gave the Ramblers their only losses of 2015 – the first in Week 5 and the final in a Regional rematch. Boyne City is banking this time will look more like the three straight wins in this series from 2012-14, and the Ramblers look that caliber giving up no more than 13 points in a game so far. Then again, the Gladiators have given up 45 points total this fall and haven’t lost a regular-season game since that 2014 Boyne City loss.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Harbor Springs (4-4) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (5-3), Grayling (5-3) at Kalkaska (4-4), Evart (4-4) at Maple City Glen Lake (5-2), Oscoda (5-3) at Tawas (2-5).

Southeast & Border

Reading (7-1) at Michigan Center (7-1), Friday

The champions of the Big 8 and Cascades conferences meet in Week 9, and it’s a crowning regular-season achievement for a Reading team that had won six games combined over the last two seasons and earned its first league title since 2012. It’s a great opportunity as well for Michigan Center, which shared the Cascades title with Napoleon and Addison – the Cardinals’ first piece of a championship since sharing in 2013. To the victor tonight goes a little more pride, and also possibly enough points to earn a home playoff game.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Hudson (7-1) at Blissfied (5-3), Brooklyn Columbia Central (6-2) at Hillsdale (4-4), Milan (5-3) at Ypsilanti Lincoln (6-2), Morenci (5-3) at Petersburg-Summerfield (6-2).

Southwest Corridor

Three Rivers (7-1) at Vicksburg (6-2), Friday

Technically, the Wolverine B Conference can still finish with three teams sharing the title. It would take, in part, co-leader Edwardsburg falling to two-win Sturgis. So while that seems less likely to occur, Three Rivers faces a much tougher task to hold on to its share of the prize. The Wildcats find themselves tied for first because of a three-point win over the Eddies two weeks ago, and can keep what would be a first league title since 2009. But Three Rivers beat third-place Vicksburg by only a point last year after losing three straight to the Bulldogs. And with that slim chance at a three-way title still alive, the Wildcats are sure to see Vicksburg’s best again.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Kalamazoo United (6-2) at Schoolcraft (5-3), Paw Paw (4-4) at Dowagiac (5-3), Coloma (5-3) at Watervliet (8-0), Climax-Scotts (6-2) at Athens (5-3).

Upper Peninsula

Escanaba (7-1) at Kingsford (6-1), Friday

Escanaba won two weeks ago a game that lined up like a meeting of the two best teams in the Upper Peninsula, handing the only loss to then-undefeated Gladstone. But Kingsford has belonged in that conversation too, and tonight’s game has the same feel – and with the winner claiming the outright Great Northern Conference championship. Kingsford’s only loss was on opening night to Menasha, Wis., which has gone on to go 8-1. The Flivvers actually have been a little better against their league opponents too, scoring three more points than Escanaba and giving up 48 fewer – not to mention they have three straight losses to the Eskymos they’d love to avenge.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Gladstone (7-1) at Calumet (5-3), Bark River-Harris (4-4) at Munising (4-3), Negaunee (4-4) at Ishpeming Westwood (7-1), Menominee (5-3) at Marquette (4-4).

West Michigan

Zeeland West (6-2) at Zeeland East (8-0), Friday

This matchup between schools literally next door to each other is always one of the most anticipated on the west side of the state. But it means more again as both are undefeated in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green and with the possibility they could see each other in the playoffs at some point as well. The Chix have put up 41 or more points in every game – their most impressive offensive output this decade. West has won their last three meetings, and its two defeats this fall – to Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids West Catholic, a combined 13-3 – no doubt prepared the Dux for games of this caliber.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Grand Rapids South Christian (7-1) at East Grand Rapids (8-0), Grandville (6-2) at Holland West Ottawa (7-1), Lake City (8-0) at Morley Stanwood (7-1), Montague (8-0) at Muskegon Catholic Central (7-0).

8-Player

Bay City All Saints (6-2) at Kinde-North Huron (7-1), Friday

A lot of the hype this season deservedly has gone to teams playing – and succeeding – in their first seasons of 8-player football, and All Saints is part of that group. The Cougars were 3-6 last fall in 11-player and had one winning season over their last six before making the switch. Kinde-North Huron, meanwhile, has played 8-player since 2012 – and it’s having its most successful regular season since 2007. Both are undefeated in the North Central Thumb League Stripes division, with the winner tonight taking the outright championship.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Battle Creek St. Philip (5-3) at Bellevue (7-1), Stephenson (7-1) at Powers North Central (5-2), Suttons Bay (5-3) at Mesick (5-3), Webberville (5-3) at Morrice (7-1).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Zeeland East (yellow helmets) downed Saginaw Swan Valley on opening night and will face arguably its toughest opponent since in rival Zeeland West this weekend. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)