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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 5 in Review

September 25, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

If there was a theme that emerged across much of the state during Week 5 in Michigan high school football, it boiled down to this: Not so fast. 

Not so fast, teams appearing to break away from the pack.

Not so fast, new contenders on the block who have won big but still have big opponents to play.

Not so fast, those counting out those old favorites because they’ve fallen early to teams on the rise.

And not so fast, if you’re thinking a slow start is sure to be followed by a disappointing finish.

We’ve passed the midpoint of the regular season, but this week’s Drive for Detroit review – powered by MI Student Aid – saw a number of teams show there’s plenty yet to prove and decide over the next month.  

Bay & Thumb

Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 20, Cass City 14

This could be the eventual decider in the Greater Thumb Conference West as Laker handed Cass City (4-1) its first loss this season while beating the Red Hawks for the seventh straight year. The Lakers (4-1), perfect since falling to still-undefeated Hudson on opening night, held on as Cass City finished the game four yards from tying the score. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune (and check out the video below from Thumb Tailgater Sports).

Also noted:

New Lothrop 56, Flint Hamady 34 – Make that 66 wins in its last 67 regular-season games for New Lothrop (5-0), although Hamady (3-2) scored more than any opponent had on the Hornets in any game since 2014.

Midland 42, Bay City Central 35 – Midland (4-1) earned a solid win in a matchup of teams in first place in their respective Saginaw Valley League divisions; the Chemics are co-leaders in the Blue, and Central (3-2) is one of two atop the Red.

Lake Fenton 24, Byron 6 – The Blue Devils (4-1) held on to a slim lead over Montrose in the Genesee Area Conference Red while sending Byron (3-2) to fourth place in what continues to be a tight league race.

Frankenmuth 47, Bridgeport 42 – The Eagles (5-0) trailed by 21 during the second half before coming back to beat a Bridgeport team that at 3-2 has more wins already than it finished with in any of the last three seasons.

Greater Detroit

West Bloomfield 17, Rochester Adams 16

Over two weeks West Bloomfield broke open the Oakland Activities Association Red title chase, handing Adams its first loss after doing the same to Clarkston in Week 4. Quarterback Bryce Veasley threw two touchdown passes including a 99-yarder to Tre Mosley, and the Lakers (3-2) stopped an Adams two-point conversion attempt after the Highlanders (4-1) scored during the final minutes. Click for more from the Oakland Press (and see highlights from State Champs! Sports Network).

Also noted:

Madison Heights Madison 28, Marine City 24 – A contender in the Macomb Area Conference Silver, Madison (5-0) got a major playoff points boost from handing MAC Gold co-leader Marine City (4-1) its first loss.

Detroit Mumford 13, Detroit Cody 7 – Mumford (4-1) kept just ahead of Cass Tech with one more league win in the Detroit Public School League Green title hunt, and likely will cheer for Cody (3-2) to beat the Technicians this week.

Birmingham Groves 32, Farmington Hills Harrison 31 – The reigning champ Falcons (4-1) kept themselves alive in the OAA White, moving into a second place tie now with Harrison (3-2) and Troy one win behind Oak Park.

Clinton Township Clintondale 30, Hazel Park 14 – MAC Bronze leader Clintondale (5-0) eclipsed last year’s win total with an impressive one over the OAA Blue-leading Vikings (3-2), who are already one win better than last year with their most since 2012. 

Mid-Michigan

Portland 35, Lansing Catholic 6

The Raiders, adding this win to another over Williamston in Week 3, own a commanding lead in the Capital Area Activities Association White as they play for a three-peat. Portland (4-1) scored the first 28 points this time and locked down an offense that was averaging 39 points per game entering the night. Lansing Catholic (4-1) is 29-3 during the regular season since the start of 2014 – with all three losses to the Raiders. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Also noted:

Williamston 35, Ionia 34 – The Hornets (3-2) bounced back from painful losses to Portland and Lansing Catholic by edging the Bulldogs (3-2), who similarly have lost two games by a combined nine points.

Clare 42, Harrison 14 – A potential Jack Pine Conference-deciding matchup with Beaverton wouldn’t come until Week 9, but Clare (4-1) took a step toward making it happen by knocking the Hornets (3-2) into a tie for third place.

Laingsburg 33, Fowler 0 – The Wolfpack (4-1) set up this week’s matchup with Pewamo-Westphalia for first place in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference by extending a two-year winning streak over Fowler (2-3) for the first time since 2008-09.

Grand Ledge 28, Okemos 20 – This kept reigning champ Grand Ledge (4-1) tied atop the CAAC Blue with Holt, but also showed that Okemos (4-1) can hang with the league’s best after a fast start against opponents that haven’t had much success this fall.

Northern Lower Peninsula

Boyne City 21, Grayling 6

The Ramblers (5-0) extended their winning streak over Grayling to four straight and in doing so took a sizable step toward making Week 9’s matchup with Traverse City St. Francis a potential decider in the Northern Michigan Football League Legends division. Those two met to decide the title in Week 9 in 2016 and are tied for first place again. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Also noted:

Cheboygan 22, Kalkaska 15 – Also in the NMFL Legends, Cheboygan (2-3) equaled its most wins in a season since 2013 by avenging last year’s 35-0 loss to the Blazers (3-2).

Frankfort 52, Johannesburg-Lewiston 14 – The Panthers (4-1) took their points-per-game average this season to 47 against the rebounding Cardinals (3-2), who will equal last year’s win total with their next victory.

Lake City 20, Beal City 14 – The Trojans (5-0) have now handed losses to two of three teams tied for second in the Highland Conference, while Beal City (3-2) will face those other two over the next two weeks as it looks to stay in contention.

Harbor Springs 20, St. Ignace 16 – The Rams (3-2) downed the reigning league champion Saints (1-4) to maintain first place in the NMFL Legacy.

Southeast & Border

Michigan Center 36, Addison 24

The Cardinals (4-1) dissolved at least some of the excitement surrounding Addison’s best start in more than a decade by creating a three-way tie for first in the Cascades Conference with the Panthers (4-1) and Napoleon (which had beaten Michigan Center in Week 3). Addison and Napoleon already have met as well. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Also noted:

Brighton 30, Livonia Stevenson 10 – The Bulldogs (3-2) kept themselves in contention for at least a shared title in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association Black by handing Stevenson (4-1) its first loss.

Blissfield 25, Brooklyn Columbia Central 14 – After leader Hudson, the Lenawee County Athletic Association is a bit of a jumble with Blissfield (3-2) now in the mix a week after Columbia Central (3-2) looked to be joining.

Jackson 35, Lansing Sexton 28 – The Vikings might be the best 1-4 team in Michigan and showed it against the talented Big Reds (3-2) after earlier absorbing one and two-point losses.

Reading 13, Quincy 12 – The Rangers (4-1) kept themselves tied for first in the Big 8 Conference with Union City; Quincy (3-2) faced them both over the last two weeks.

Southwest Corridor

Watervliet 52, Kalamazoo United 34

Watervliet and quarterback Zach Pickens are putting up huge offensive numbers, and the Panthers (5-0) kept their streak going of scoring at least 50 points in every game this season. This was only the opener of the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley schedule, but Kalamazoo United (4-1) was a strong first test in a league loaded with them. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Also noted:

Coloma 41, Constantine 0 – Staying in the SAC Valley, the Comets (4-1) guaranteed their best finish since 2009 and after losing to Constantine (3-2) by scores of 68-35 and 46-0 over the last two seasons.

Hartford 39, Decatur 38 – The Indians (4-1) have doubled their wins and nearly their points scored as well from 2016 already, with downing Decatur (3-2) their best victory so far.

Three Rivers 14, Paw Paw 0 – The Wildcats (4-1) will get to affect the Wolverine B Conference race as one of four teams in first or second, while Paw Paw (3-2) will need some breaks to get back in the mix.

St. Joseph 42, Mattawan 7 – The Bears (4-1) will need help to win the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West, but can claim a win over the SMAC East-leading Wildcats (3-2). 

Upper Peninsula

Gladstone 20, Ishpeming 8

The Braves (5-0), new to the Mid-Peninsula Conference this season, clinched a share of the league title with this victory; they will face winless Iron Mountain in Week 8 with an opportunity to win the championship outright. Ishpeming scored first, but Gladstone scored the final three touchdowns of the game. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Also noted:

L'Anse 20, Hurley (Wis.) 18 – The Purple Hornets (4-1) held on to a share of the lead in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference by downing another contender in Hurley (4-2).

Hancock 42, Calumet 24 – Staying in the West PAC, the Bulldogs (4-1) could still find their way into the title conversation after moving to 3-1 in the league by downing the Copper Kings (3-2).

Norway 28, Bark River-Harris 14 – Norway (5-0) controlled its destiny to remain in first in Mid-Eastern Conference by handing Bark River-Harris (3-2) a second league loss, then got some help (see below).

Lake Linden-Hubbell 34, Newberry 20 – Lake Linden-Hubbell (1-3) is in playoff mode already as it seeks a fifth straight postseason berth, and the Lakes started to bounce back from a slow start by handing Newberry (3-2) its first M-EC defeat. 

West Michigan

Montague 46, Whitehall 44

The West Michigan Conference has been one of the state’s most exciting the last two weeks, with Whitehall handing reigning champion Muskegon Oakridge a loss in Week 4 only to be edged Friday by Montague (5-0) – which faces Oakridge in Week 7. Whitehall (3-2) came back from 20 points down to make the 111th meeting between the teams a close finish; Montague owns a 61-48-2 edge in the series. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle (and see below for a highlight from FOX 17.)

Also noted:

Hudsonville Unity Christian 35, Comstock Park 32 – The Crusades (3-2) had opened Ottawa-Kent Conference Green play with two defeats, but may have turned things around by downing the O-K Blue co-leading Panthers (4-1).

Grandville 28, East Kentwood 14 – East Kentwood (4-1) arguably had been the most impressive O-K Red team heading into Week 5, but the Falcons will need help to get back in the title hunt as Grandville (4-1) held onto a first-place tie with Holland West Ottawa (Rockford also is without a league loss, but with one fewer game so far).

Grand Rapids Christian 48, Cedar Springs 44 – The Eagles (5-0) scored on a 46-yard touchdown pass from Isaac Dykema to Anthony Ladd with six seconds to play to down the Red Hawks (3-2).

Muskegon Heights Academy 36, Ludington 27 – The Tigers (3-2) hadn’t won more than two games the last two seasons and haven’t won more than three since 2011; they’ll face Muskegon Catholic Central this week with first place in the Lakes 8 Conference on the line after handing the Orioles (2-3) their third league defeat. 

8-Player

Morrice 40, Flint International Academy 28

Morrice (5-0) set itself up for a matchup with undefeated Deckerville this week for first place in the North Central Thumb League Stars division. The Orioles have won all of their games by at least 12 points, but third-place International Academy (4-1) gave them their closest game and gets its chance against Deckerville in Week 7. Click for more from the Owosso Argus-Press. 

Also noted:

Onekama 54, Suttons Bay 18 – The Portagers (5-0) have won all of their games since switching to 8-player this season by at least 24 points and are tied for first in the Midwest Central Michigan Conference, while Suttons Bay (3-2) is among four teams tied for third.

Central Lake 58, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 31 – Central Lake also is a first-year 8-player team and is tied with Onekama for first in the MCMC; Tri-unity fell to 2-3 after facing the co-leaders in back-to-back weeks.

Kingston 64, Lawrence 42 – The Cardinals (3-2) tied their wins total from last season while also sending Lawrence to 3-2.

Stephenson 54, Eben Junction Superior Central 30 – The Eagles (5-0) also have won all of their games this season by 24 points, this time despite giving up a season-high 30 to the Cougars (1-4).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Portland's running game found success in its 35-6 win over Lansing Catholic on Friday. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)