Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Powers North Central Extends Title Legacy
November 18, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
GREENVILLE – Their parents are taking credit for this, and for many reasons, rightfully so.
But the moms and dads who birthed the athletes rolling through Powers North Central’s football and boys basketball programs these last few years never stacked championships like this. For that matter, no class at any Michigan school has accomplished what the Jets seniors added to Friday night.
North Central’s 58-22 win over Deckerville at Legacy Field finished a second straight undefeated 8-player football championship season for the Jets, to go with two straight undefeated Class D championship teams for their boys basketball team – and ignited questions of how a school with only 115 students from a small Upper Peninsula community could come up with such a collection of talent.
Jets assistant coach Gerald Whitens provided his son, star quarterback and hoops guard Jason Whitens, with one explanation.
“Most of our parents went to North Central. It’s coming back around,” Jason Whitens said. “We had a good family group that stayed at Powers North Central, and we just kept filtering through and growing as a group. My dad said he blazed the path for us, and we just made it even bigger. So I have to give him a little credit.”
Added senior running back Bobby Kleiman, whose dad Scott also is a football assistant and played with Gerald Whitens on the school’s 1984 Class D champion basketball team: “(This kind of group) doesn’t come by often, I can tell you that. But we’re blessed to have the kids we have. The timing, everything, it just fell into place. We grew up with each other, we love each other, and it’s just a blessing to have the kids we have.”
That blessing to North Central athletics has been an unmovable obstacle for football opponents the last two seasons.
The Jets finished this run 13-0 to move to 26-0 since switching to 8-player before the start of the 2015 season.
But this most recent win didn’t come as smoothly as the score might indicate – at least during most of one quarter.
The first belonged to North Central, and the 6-foot-4, 210-pound Whitens in particular. In 2015, Kleiman became the first player in the then-five seasons of 8-player football to run for more than 200 yards in an MHSAA Final, finishing with 205. Whitens obliterated that record in the first quarter Friday, running for 231 yards and three touchdowns on only five carries as the Jets opened up a 20-0 lead.
But Deckerville, also undefeated and making its first championship game appearance since winning 8-player in 2012, didn’t fold. In fact, the Eagles (11-1) rode the running of senior tailback Austin Fritch and senior quarterback Brandon Pattullo, who combined for 162 yards rushing and three touchdowns during the second quarter to put the Eagles up suddenly 22-20 with 1:57 to play before the break.
North Central had trailed only once before this season, into the third quarter Week 2 against Crystal Falls Forest Park before coming back to win 60-42.
“We’re not used to other people scoring on us and having close games,” Bobby Kleiman said. “But we played Crystal Falls two weeks ago (a 60-50 Regional Final rematch); they’re an exact replica of this team. We had one of the craziest games ever with them, and they really prepared us for this game.”
Indeed, Whitens scored on a 44-yard run a minute after Deckerville took its lead, and the Jets never trailed again. Kleiman added a 49-yard scoring run less than three minutes into the third quarter, and Whitens added 37 and 2-yard scoring runs and a 71-yard touchdown pass to senior Marcus Krachinski.
Whitens finished with an 8-Player Finals rushing record that may not be broken in some time, 352 yards on only 17 carries (20.7 yards per carry) with six touchdowns. His numbers could’ve been greater, or at least different if for just two plays, both dropped passes that likely would’ve resulted in touchdowns. Still, Whitens completed 6 of his 12 throws for 100 yards despite rain that blew sideways for most of the first three quarters.
Deckerville had given up only 50 points total this season and only 18 during the playoffs despite facing two other undefeated teams.
“We made a nice comeback there, but you’ve still got to keep going, and we weren’t able to make some plays,” Deckerville coach Bill Brown said. “We can’t give up big plays and expect to win. We don’t have a kid like that that can get 80-yard runs every time and score.”
Fritch and Pattullo did both finish with 133 yards rushing, Pattullo on only 12 carries for an average of 11.1 yards per attempt.
Kleiman added 123 yards rushing on 10 carries despite what North Central read as Deckerville aligning to stop him early on. That read led to Whitens’ big first quarter, including a 38-yard run on the first offense play of the game, on the “dart” quarterback keeper play that North Central continued to throw at the Eagles throughout the night.
The addition of Friday’s performance gave Whitens 2,496 yards and 44 touchdowns passing this season, along with 943 yards and 22 touchdowns rushing.
He’s one of 11 seniors who played his last high school football game – and six of those seniors also played in last season’s Class D Basketball Final.
“This is the best class probably ever in the state, to do what they’ve done,” North Central coach Kevin Bellefeuil said. “Two basketball titles, two football titles, and they have to be a favorite to win a third one (in hoops).
“This is a special group of kids. We have the right mix of skill players, offensive linemen, linebackers; we have a little bit of everything.”
And some will take only a short break. Whitens said at first he’d be back to work for basketball Saturday morning. Then he self-corrected – he’ll wait until Monday instead.
“You’re never satisfied with who you were last year, or the day before. You’re always growing to get better each and every day of your life, and that’s how I go about my life,” Whitens said.
“We’ve got our eyes on the ultimate prize. This is our last year, last run at it, and we’re going to enjoy it. … I’m going to get home, join our community, let them bask in the glory with us. And then Monday morning, I’m ready to go.”
The MHSAA Football Finals are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTOS: (Top) Powers North Central quarterback Jason Whitens breaks away for one of his six rushing touchdowns Friday. (Middle) A Deckerville ball carrier works to get free of a North Central defender. (Below) Whitens confers with Jets coach Kevin Bellefeuil. (Photos by John Johnson/MHSAA.)