Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Meet Jared Smith, P-W's Record Setter

November 10, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

WESTPHALIA – Jared Smith saw the parking lot full and cars lining Clintonia Road to the west and Centerline Road south of Pewamo-Westphalia’s stadium Saturday as his Pirates prepared to kick off their District Final against Saugatuck.

He knew once again there was no place else he’d rather be.

And that goes to the core of what Smith would tell anyone who might be curious about the senior back making a run at the MHSAA’s career rushing yards record.

Smith showed a little to the statewide audience with 149 yards and a touchdown in P-W’s 22-16 loss to Ishpeming in last season’s Division 7 Final at Ford Field. But with most of his games over the last three-plus seasons played for a 300-student school on rural fields like his on the Clinton/Ionia County line, there are probably a few more eager to see the back they’ve mostly only read about as he’s made his run at 8,000 yards.

“I guess I’m just a hard-working kid from a small town,” he said Monday in explaining how he’d describe himself to those who haven’t seen him play. “I grew up in a great community that loves football, and they’re always out here supporting it. And I wouldn’t rather be anywhere else.”

Smith heads into the Pirates’ Division 7 Regional Final on Saturday at Traverse City St. Francis with five MHSAA football records and ranking second or third in three other categories, and he will graduate in the spring on a short list of the most accomplished high school backs in Michigan history.

He helped carry the Pirates to the cusp of their first MHSAA title last fall with a  single-season record 3,250 yards and 53 touchdowns – his scores set records both for total touchdowns and total rushing TDs in one season – on 315 carries, which came out to 10.3 yards per carry and a touchdown every sixth time he ran the ball.

This fall, Smith has only 2,318 yards on 197 carries (11.8 per rush) with 34 scores on the ground – giving him an MHSAA-record 119 rushing touchdowns for his career with at least one more game to play. Total over three seasons and parts of a fourth – Smith came up in Week 6 to back up Ross Wolniakowski as a freshman in 2013 – he has run for 7,930 yards, only 501 shy of the career record set by East Grand Rapids’ Kevin Grady, Jr., from 2001-04.

Another big finish would allow fans outside mid-Michigan and those who follow our smallest schools one more glimpse at the player who will end up all over the MHSAA record book. But in the meantime, here’s a primer based on viewpoints from those who have coached the 6-foot, 205-pound hammer, and those who have tried to stop him.

“I tell them that he is the same kid that he was when I brought him up as a freshman,” P-W coach Jeremy Miller said. “He hasn’t changed. His outlook, his work ethic. He’s a tremendous teammate, a tremendous kid to coach. I’ve never had to say two words to him: ‘Hey, knock it off. Be quiet. Pay attention. You’re not working hard.’ So he’s a tremendously gifted athlete, but he has all the intangibles to be every coach’s dream. He really does.”

Smith came up to varsity as a freshman, again mostly as the scout team back, but he picked up 226 yards and four touchdowns to begin his record book march.

He’ll be the first to explain how much of his last three seasons have been a result of a strong cast around him. Anchor Matt Fox was the only member of last season’s offensive line to graduate – leaving now-seniors Dominic Spitzley, Austin Thelen and Devon Pung and junior Isaiah Schafer to form a veteran nucleus. Thelen suffered a season-ending knee injury on the first play of this season, but senior Nick Jandernoa – pulling off the rare double as a cornerback on defense – took Thelen’s spot at offensive guard, while 6-foot-5 senior Nolan Hagen has moved from tight end last year to play the other guard and senior Jason Smith has taken on that tight end spot key to the blocking scheme.

Smith also has benefitted from last season’s starting tight end, junior Bryce Thelen, now playing fullback, and the return of junior quarterback Jimmy Lehman, a threat through the air. Senior Ryan Smith is an option quarterback who switches in and can pull some of the attention away from his lead back.

But if Jared Smith was just a great small-town back, more programs would have one like him – and only a few players at that level the last few years have been comparable.

One is Saugatuck’s Blake Dunn, who Saturday finished his four-year varsity career with 6,954 yards on the ground. The Indians are one of few teams to play P-W close the last two years, falling 38-28 in a 2015 District Final before being edged 25-19 last week – games in which Smith ran for 300 yards and two touchdowns and then 210 yards and two scores, respectively.

“He has great leg strength, great balance, and then on top of that, his vision and his ability to cut back really make him unique,” said Saugatuck coach Bill Dunn, also Blake’s dad, whose team has navigated the Southwestern Athletic Conference the last two years to go a combined 20-2. “What he did last year versus this year was very similar. His running style was very similar. Our preparation was to not let him cut back, but he’s got a very good offensive line, and you have to give credit to those guys as well.

“(But) absolutely, I think he’d do well in any league. Just with his size alone, and the fact that he can run.”

Laingsburg coach Brian Borgman is among those from the Central Michigan Athletic Conference who have appreciated Smith’s work – but won’t miss trying to stop it. The 15-year Wolfpack coach, who played collegiately at Bowling Green, has watched Smith help the Pirates win 14 straight league games and 27 of 28 over the last four seasons.

After this fall’s 40-7 P-W win over Laingsburg – which won eight games for the second straight season – Borgman told Smith, “Congratulations” and also he was glad he wouldn’t have to plan for him again.

“When he was a sophomore, he basically was just an outside runner, able to take the ball to the edge. They didn’t ask him to take it between the tackles much,” Borgman said. “But as he’s matured, as he’s been lifting, with his strength – he’s become a bear to take down. (And) just his confidence. Our game we played in a downpour. They direct snapped to him and we were able to corral him for a quarter and a half, but you never saw him get worried. He kept his cool, kept his poise and eventually ran right past us” for 271 yards and two touchdowns.

“He is by far the most talented player I’ve had to try to defend,” Borgman added. “His special blend of power, speed, vision and balance make him so dangerous. He gives a lot of credit to the O-line in front of him, as well he should, but I’ve seen him turn a blown play into an 80-plus yard TD all by himself. He is a rare talent, and I wish him well in the future.”

That future is something Smith knows he’ll eventually have to figure out and feels a little bit of pressure to get started – but there’s another potential trip to Detroit to plan first.

Despite his success, while also starting at linebacker – and carrying a 3.97 grade-point average – Smith isn’t getting as much college interest as one might expect. He mixes that physical running style with speed; he made the MHSAA Lower Peninsula Division 3 Track & Field Finals in the spring for 300-meter hurdles and as part of the 1,600 relay. But his 4.65-second 40 time isn’t considered “top-end” – “But give him the football and see if you can tackle him,” Miller said.

And Smith learns. He scored the first points of the Division 7 Final and had 100 yards by halftime. But what Smith remembers instead is that he fumbled – a rarity at the time, but Smith hasn’t fumbled once this season.

And he’s only improved as a leader too, driven more by team aspirations than trying to one-up his records or add to the growing pile.

“The biggest motivator for me was coming off that loss at states,” Smith said. “Other than that, I just enjoy coming out here and working.

"(The 2015 Final) was just a game where we could've come out and done a lot of things better. We were so close, and just came up a little short. ... Now that's our ultimate goal. Everyone is working for it." 

Geoff Kimmerly joined the MHSAA as its Media & Content Coordinator in Sept. 2011 after 12 years as Prep Sports Editor of the Lansing State Journal. He has served as Editor of Second Half since its creation in Jan. 2012. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for the Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Ionia, Clinton, Shiawassee, Gratiot, Isabella, Clare and Montcalm counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Pewamo-Westphalia's Jared Smith came into this season with single-season rushing and touchdown records. (Middle) Smith works for yardage against Ishpeming during last season's Division 7 Final. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)