Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive Complete: 2015 Finals in Review

December 2, 2015

Those who watched the MHSAA Football Finals in person, online or on TV on Fox Sports Detroit probably didn’t leave their seats much over Thanksgiving weekend.

Five of eight 11-player Finals were decided by seven points or fewer. Two more were still in question into the fourth quarter. And if you missed the ends of the Division 2 or Division 5 games, get to MHSAA.tv the next time you have a few hours to spare.

Second Half covered all nine championship games including the 8-player Final on Nov. 20, with quick recaps and links to those stories below followed by notations of performances entered into the MHSAA record book and a report on some of the biggest and best stories to emerge from the 2015 Finals.

Finals in Review

Division 1: Romeo 41, Detroit Cass Tech 27

Romeo earned its first championship in its first trip to the MHSAA Finals, completing a playoff run that included victories over recent winners Cass Tech, Detroit Catholic Central and Clarkston. Despite a heroic performance by Technicians back-up quarterback Aaron Jackson, the Bulldogs marched for six touchdowns to remain a few steps ahead throughout. Click to read more.

Division 2: Detroit Martin Luther King 40, Lowell 38

For the second time in MHSAA Football Finals history, a game was decided on the final play of regulation – and in this case King’s final-second touchdown earned national buzz. Quarterback Armani Posey put up a record-setting passing performance, capped by a 40-yard touchdown pass to Donnie Corley on the final play that gave the Crusaders their second title. Click to read more.

Division 3: Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 29, Chelsea 12

The Eaglets won their second straight Division 3 title, this time over first-time finalist Chelsea. St. Mary’s had two runners each gain more than 100 yards and quarterback Brendan Tabone hooked up with receiver K.J. Hamler for a pair of highlight-reel scoring plays. Click to read more.

Division 4: Zeeland West 40, Flint Powers Catholic 14

The Dux won their fourth MHSAA title over the last decade and second in three seasons with the same rushing attack that has brought them great success throughout the run. West ran for 318 yards and scored four of the game’s first five touchdowns in what would be Powers coach Bob Buckel’s final game (he resigned Monday). Click to read more.

Division 5: Grand Rapids West Catholic 40, River Rouge 34

Once of the most offense-driven Finals in MHSAA football history ended with West Catholic winning its third straight championship – but not without repeated comeback attempts by River Rouge and near record-setting quarterback Antoine Burgess. The Falcons defeated three top-10 and two honorable mention teams on the way to the title, while River Rouge was playing in its first football championship game. Click to read more.

Division 6: Ithaca 27, Clinton 20

The Yellowjackets finished their fifth perfect season over the last six and earned another championship after falling in last season’s Final to break a 69-game winning streak. Ithaca won this time against an undefeated Clinton team that also had fallen to the Yellowjackets in the 2013 championship game. Ithaca featured 17 seniors, many of whom had played prominent roles in 2014 as well. Click to read more.

Division 7: Ishpeming 22, Pewamo-Westphalia 16

Ishpeming played in its fourth straight Final and won its third title in that time, coming back from last season’s loss led by returning quarterback Ozzy Corp. The 6-foot-5 senior scored three touchdowns, and the Hematites held MHSAA single-season rushing record-holder Jared Smith to a still-impressive 149 yards and a score. Click to read more.

Division 8: Muskegon Catholic Central 7, Waterford Our Lady 0

These small-school powers played to a near stalemate to kick off the weekend, with MCC’s touchdown with 10:21 to play the difference in earning the Crusaders their third straight MHSAA championship. MCC’s defense also came up with the first shutout against Our Lady since 2011, slowing down one of the state’s most accomplished passing attacks this fall. Click to read more.

8-Player: Powers North Central 58, Battle Creek St. Philip 33

Undefeated St. Philip played North Central closer than any opponent this season, but the Jets took over during the second quarter on the way to their first MHSAA title in this sport and a 13-0 finish. Junior running back Bobby Kleiman scored six times – five rushing and one receiving – and another junior, quarterback Jason Whitens, capped a season that saw him throw 45 touchdown passes without an interception. Click to read more.

Records Report

A number of team and individual entries have been added to the MHSAA Football Finals record book, found by clicking here. A breakdown:

Detroit King’s Armani Posey set the MHSAA Finals record with 383 yards passing, and River Rouge’s Antoine Burgess ended up second after also breaking the previous record with 354 yards. Posey made the completions list with 19 in 27 attempts and tied the passing touchdowns record with five. Burgess missed setting the total offense yards record by only two, tallying 424 with 70 rushing as well, and Posey’s 403 total yards ranks fifth on that list.

Two more quarterbacks also made record lists. Cass Tech’s Aaron Jackson also completed 19 passes in 27 attempts. Ithaca’s Jake Smith made the total yardage list with 126 rushing and 180 passing for 306 total.

River Rouge receiver Aaron Vinson tied for ninth for receiving yardage, gaining 162 on four receptions.

Lowell kicker George Gonzales joined a host of others by making all five of his extra-point attempts.

River Rouge and Grand Rapids West Catholic combined for 929 total yards, the second-most by two teams combined in an MHSAA Final, and Ishpeming and Zeeland West became two of 22 teams that didn’t punt in a championship game.

North Central’s Bobby Kleiman became the first entry in 8-player for rushing yards (205) and touchdowns (five), and his 337 total yards rank fourth. Teammate Jason Whitens’ 294 total yards were the fifth-most in 8-player Finals history. Kleiman also became the first entry for total touchdowns in a game (six) and easily set the record for points scored with 46. North Central and Battle Creek St. Philip combined for a record 952 total yards.

Muskegon Catholic Central moved up to third with 14 MHSAA Finals appearances, only two fewer than record holders Farmington Hills Harrison and Detroit Catholic Central. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s moved up into a tie for fourth on that list with 13 appearances. MCC also moved into a tie for third with 11 titles, behind Harrison’s 13 and Detroit St. Martin dePorres’ 12.

Stories behind the scores

The Play: Corley’s touchdown will be talked about for years to come – and not just by people who saw it live. An MHSAA video shot on Instagram and then posted on Facebook has reached 179,500 fans and been viewed more than 75,000 times, and the Fox Sports Detroit clip can be watched by clicking here. Corley’s grab gave King its only lead of the game.

Filling the trophy case: Six of eight winners this weekend have made quite a home at Ford Field. Grand Rapids West Catholic and Muskegon Catholic Central both won their third straight championships and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s was a repeat winner. Ithaca won its fifth title in six seasons, Ishpeming its third in four years and Zeeland West its second over the last three.

Romeo’s run: Save for a three-point loss to Utica Eisenhower in Week 9, Romeo’s run to its first title was perfect – and regardless, incredibly difficult. First, the Bulldogs downed two-time reigning champion Clarkston (final record 7-3) in the Pre-District, then handed Lapeer (10-1) its only loss. Next was Detroit Catholic Central (9-3), the Division 1 runner-up from 2011-13, followed by undefeated Grand Ledge (12-1). Detroit Cass Tech (11-3) had lost only to King, twice, and was the champion in 2011 and 2012.  

Bringing Mitchell to Detroit: Although St. Ignace’s run ended one win shy of reaching Ford Field, teammate Mitchell Snyder’s memory was everywhere during the Division 8 Final. The Saints, who lost to Muskegon Catholic Central in a Semifinal, had worn stickers on their helmets with the name and number of Snyder, who died in a car crash in October. MCC and Waterford Our Lady both wore the helmet sticks during their game at Ford Field, carrying Snyder’s memory to the final game of the season.

The MHSAA Football Finals are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top middle) River Rouge gets revved up in the Ford Field tunnel before entering the field. (Middle) Detroit King poses for a team photo while celebrating its championship. (Below) Powers North Central hoists its first football title trophy. (For more photos and video, click for the MHSAA Instagram feed.)