Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

St. Mary's Repeats in St. Mary's Fashion

November 28, 2015

By Bill Khan
Special for Second Half

DETROIT — Glamorous moments come rarely for wide receivers in Orchard Lake St. Mary's offense. 

To play receiver for the Eaglets requires patience, a selfless attitude and a player who doesn't mind doing the little things that only get noticed within the inner circle of the team.

Junior K.J. Hamler would be the primary weapon in many offenses, but he knows his role with St. Mary’s — make the blocks that keep the chains moving for a pound-and-ground attack. 

When his number is called, he needs to make the most of it — and he usually does.

Hamler caught four passes for 63 yards and two touchdowns, as the Eaglets repeated as MHSAA Division 3 champions with a 29-12 victory over Chelsea on Saturday at Ford Field. 

He hauled in a 34-yard pass from Brendan Tabone on a go route to give St. Mary's a 15-0 lead with 4:09 left in the first quarter. Hamler’s 16-yard catch-and-run of a screen pass from Tabone made it a 22-6 game with 7:31 to go in the third quarter.

"I'm always prepared for anything," Hamler said. "I know we're a running powerhouse team. I've just got to prepare to block better. As soon as coach (George) Porritt gives our team a chance to pass the ball, I try my best." 

A year ago, Hamler didn't have a catch in the championship game. Tabone had a minimal role as a passer, going 3 for 11 for 31 yards in a 7-0 victory over Muskegon.

St. Mary's ran the ball on its first 15 plays of this game before Tabone got the green light to go deep to Hamler. The Eaglets ran eight more plays before the next pass was called. They finished with 293 rushing yards on 56 carries, while Tabone went 5 for 9 passing for 79 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. 

"I look forward to every pass play, because we don't throw a ton," Tabone said. "We have such great backs. It was really special to be able to have an impact on the game; I'll remember it forever."

Tabone said Hamler has the right mental framework to play wide receiver in St. Mary's offense. 

"K.J.'s such a great guy," he said. "He's selfless. Whenever his number gets called, our eyes light up and we do our best to make a big play when we can."

The flashes of brilliance in the passing game added to a championship performance that was typical for St. Mary's — grind down the opponent with the running game and stifle it with defense. 

Justin Myrick had 108 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries, Troy Marks had 105 yards on 17 carries, Rashawn Allen had 55 yards on 13 carries, and Ryan Johnson had 22 yards on three carries to lead the balanced ground game.

"We have depth in our running backs, so if somebody gets hurt we can put in somebody else," said Myrick, who missed the Semifinal victory over East Grand Rapids with an injured hamstring. 

Brandon Adams, who ran for the only touchdown in last year's championship victory, missed the game because of an injury sustained on his only carry in the Semifinal.

The Eaglets repeated as MHSAA champions for only the second time in 13 Finals appearances. They won back-to-back titles in 1999 and 2000, missing out on their three-peat bid in a 14-7 loss to Chesaning in 2001. 

"At the beginning of the season, we were ranked No. 1 and all that good stuff," said junior linebacker Josh Ross, who had six tackles and an interception. "It was a lot of pressure. We had to come through it. We suffered a bad loss (31-8 to Warren DeLaSalle), which made us bond together as brothers. We came through all that adversity and won the state championship. I couldn't be prouder of our team."

It looked like St. Mary's might run away with it early. The Eaglets were leading 15-0 when they elected to go for a 33-yard field goal on fourth-and-inches from Chelsea's 17-yard line on their third possession. John Kwiecinski missed for only the second time in 10 field goal tries this season, opening the door for the Bulldogs (12-2) to get back in the game. 

It took them only four plays to get into the end zone, as Graham Kuras took a reverse and heaved a 47-yard touchdown pass to Noah vanReesema with 8:22 left in the second quarter. Ralph Holley blocked the extra point, leaving the score at 15-6.

"That's our go-to trick play," Kuras said. "I was looking over for Noah. Usually, he's halfway across the field. This time, he wasn't. I was kind of lost on the play. I saw the safety get drawn up, so I knew he'd be open. I stepped up and threw it. I thought I overthrew it. I saw him step into second gear. That was probably one of the biggest plays in the game. Getting down 15-0 right away, we were kind of low on ourselves. Getting a score like that with the crowd behind us and boosting everyone's confidence was key to this game. Without that, it could've been much worse." 

St. Mary's took that 15-6 lead into halftime, then expanded it to 22-6 on the 16-yard pass to Hamler following a shanked 11-yard punt.

Chelsea was held to only 13 yards rushing on 22 carries, but was able to do some damage through the air. A 14-yard touchdown pass from Jack Bush to Cameron Cooper with 5:07 left in the third quarter got the Bulldogs within 22-12. A 2-point pass that would've made it a one-possession margin was incomplete. 

The response was a vintage St. Mary's drive, a 13-play, 80-yard march made up entirely of running plays. The Eaglets took 6:13 off the clock before Myrick scored on a 3-yard run to make it 29-12 with 8:44 left in the game.

The championship was within St. Mary's grasp once the defense came up with a big goal line stand on the following Chelsea drive. The Bulldogs had first-and-goal at the 3 but ended up with a turnover on downs with 5:39 left. 

Chelsea would never touch the ball again, as St. Mary's ran out the final 5:39 with a 10-play, 48-yard drive.

"That's our football," Porritt said. "That last drive was big-time for us. The last drive and the defensive stop were our M.O. for the year. The defense has come up big in some goal line situations. Our offense running clock and having long sustained drives has been our football strategy all year." 

Bush was 13 for 21 for 145 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He was sacked four times.

While St. Mary's is a regular visitor to the championship game, it was the first time Chelsea made it this far. 

"As sad as it is to be over, I wouldn't want to end it anywhere else with any other guys or any other team," Kuras said. "It was the experience of a lifetime."

Click for the full box score.

The MHSAA Football Finals are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) K.J. Hamler beats the Chelsea defense for one of his two touchdowns Saturday. (Middle) The Eaglets celebrate their second straight Division 3 championship.