Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
King Completes Perfect Run on Final Play
November 27, 2015
By Bill Khan
Special for Second Half
DETROIT — Armani Posey was supposed to be a two-week stopgap at quarterback for Detroit Martin Luther King.
Two weeks turned into 11 weeks, building toward a championship finish for the ages.
In a moment that was “The Catch” and “The Drive” all rolled into one, Posey heaved a 40-yard touchdown pass to senior receiver Donnie Corley on the final play of the game to give King a 40-38 victory over Lowell in the Division 2 title game Friday at Ford Field.
Lowell led 31-13 in the third quarter before Posey responded by throwing four of his record-tying five touchdown passes in the final 15:41 of the game. The final drive began with 37 seconds remaining at King's 3-yard line after a punt out of bounds and a penalty.
It was a scenario tailor-made for John Elway — or Armani Posey.
"What happened today is a memory forever," Posey said. "I dreamed about that and went out there and did it today. I couldn't imagine that type of performance, but we got the job done. Shout-out to the O-line."
When the starter was suspended for two weeks, King coach Dale Harvel was in search of a quarterback for the Week 4 game against Detroit Denby and the week 5 game against eventual Division 1 finalist Detroit Cass Tech. Harvel wanted a mature senior to, at the very least, manage an offense that is loaded with Division I college prospects. Posey turned into much more than a game manager.
"What we found out was he settled down everybody in the offense, because the first week we struggled a little bit against (Warren) DeLaSalle and struggled against East (English) Village," Harvel said. "We were able to win because we were playing good defense. He's been a settling effect on our offense and we couldn't go away from him, because we were in a rhythm with our offense. So, we stuck with him all year."
Posey's first position was quarterback, but that was way back in his elementary school days playing in the Detroit Police Athletic League for the East Side Tigers. One of his teammates back in the day happened to be the young man with whom his legacy will forever be linked.
"He played quarterback when I played for the Tigers," Corley said. "He's always been a good quarterback. I didn't know he was going to play this well. He had five touchdowns for 300 yards today? That's amazing."
After starting the game with three three-and-outs and his team falling behind 17-0, Posey finished 19 for 27 for 383 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. He broke the MHSAA Finals record of 335 yards set by Olivet's Jay Cousineau in the 2010 Division 5 Final. He matched the record of five touchdown passes shared by Macomb Dakota's Mitch Lovett (2007, Division 1) and Cass Tech's Jayru Campbell (2011, Division 1). Posey also ran seven times for 20 yards and a touchdown.
It took a rare defensive stop by King to put Posey and Corley in a position to produce a moment that will be talked about for decades.
Lowell drove from its own 35 to King's 39 before its only negative play of the game, a 2-yard loss on a run by quarterback Ryan Stevens, forced only the second punt of the game for the Red Arrows. Stevens nailed the punt out of bounds at the 5 with 37 seconds left. An illegal procedure penalty on King before the first snap moved it back inside the 3.
"They battled, right down to where we punted the ball down to the 5 with (37) seconds on the clock," Lowell coach Noel Dean said. "I thought that would be a pretty good spot to be in. Credit them — they made the plays at the end."
King made several plays on its way to the end zone.
A 22-yard pass to Lavert Hill, a 10-yard pass to Corley and a 25-yard pass to Dontre Boyd got the ball to the Lowell 40 with 10 seconds left. Boyd had to watch the final play from the sidelines, having injured his shoulder after his catch on a tackle by Alex Anschutz. Boyd had 126 yards on five catches.
"He could've easily dropped the football," Harvel said. "He focused on that football and knew he was going to get hit — a good legal hit. He caught the football and made the play for a first down for us and made the opportunity to throw that pass to Donnie. All of his teammates understand what he sacrificed for his football team out there today."
"To me, that was the biggest play of the game," said Corley, who was about to make the most memorable play of the 2015 season.
King had two shots at the end zone in the final 10 seconds. On the first play, Posey overthrew Ambry Thomas down the left side. Two seconds remained on the clock for a play that would make one team's dreams come true and crush another's.
As King lined up for the final play, Corley was in single coverage on the left side. This was an inviting prospect for the Crusaders, considering Corley is being recruited by Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame and Ohio State.
Corley said the Lowell cornerback called for safety help over the top, but that the safety didn't hear in the instructions.
"When we didn't see the safety move over, I was repeating, 'Throw it to Donnie, throw it to Donnie,'" Harvel said. "Nobody could hear me, but it was comforting to me to say that, even though nobody could hear me."
As Corley ran toward the left side of the end zone, Posey had time to heave the ball to his star receiver. Corley, who has a 37-inch vertical leap, won a jump ball against the corner who appeared to get a hand on the ball, then fell to the ground safely inbounds.
"It was a beautiful ball," said Corley, who caught six passes for 108 yards and two touchdowns. "It couldn't have been any better. He threw it just inbounds and in the back of the end zone. I knew where I was on the field. I couldn't believe it — I'm not gonna lie. We fought back from 17-0 and we won."
It's only the second time that the winning score in an MHSAA championship game took place on the final play. Steve Mann caught a 17-yard touchdown pass from Charlie Johnson to give Detroit Country Day an 18-14 victory over Muskegon Catholic Central in the 1986 Class C title game.
For most of the afternoon, this wasn't a championship game that appeared to be destined for a dramatic finish.
Max Dean's third touchdown run of the game, a 4-yarder with 8:24 left in the third quarter, gave Lowell a 31-13 lead. The Red Arrows had leads of 17-0 and 24-7 in the first half.
A 25-yard touchdown pass from Posey to Corley with 3:41 left in the third quarter and a 41-yard pass from Posey to Thomas got King back in the game, down only 31-26 with 11:44 remaining.
Lowell responded with a 10-play, 73-yard drive that culminated with a 2-yard touchdown run by Stevens with 7:10 remaining.
Aided by a personal foul for facemasking, King crept to within 38-34 on a 2-yard pass from Posey to Hill and a 2-point pass from Posey to Martell Pettaway with 4:42 to go.
Lowell got two first downs on its next possession, forcing the Crusaders to use their remaining timeouts. They were able to manage the clock well on the final drive, particularly when Hill gave up the opportunity for a few more yards to get out of bounds with 28 seconds left on the first play. The clock stopped temporarily when Corley's 10-yard catch got a first down. Boyd was on the field for a couple of minutes after being injured making his 25-yard catch, allowing King to discuss its options and be ready at the line when the clock started running as play resumed.
Corley's catch gave King its second MHSAA championship, matching the achievement of the 2007 team. It was King's fourth victory of three points or fewer in a 14-0 season.
Lowell scored on its first four possessions before taking a knee to end the first half during its fifth, leading 17-0 before King even registered a first down.
After getting first-and-goal at the King 5, Lowell settled for a 21-yard field goal by George Gonzales to open the scoring with 4:52 left in the first quarter.
A 36-yard pass to senior Gabe Steed was the key play on a 10-play, 70-yard scoring drive that ended with a 1-yard run by Dean with 11:03 left in the second quarter.
A 62-yard pass to a wide-open David Kruse on Lowell's third drive set up a 4-yard touchdown run by Stevens with 7:02 left in the first half. At this point, Lowell had a 173-9 advantage in total offense and a 17-0 lead.
It appeared King would suffer its fourth straight three-and-out to start the game when an intentional grounding penalty left the Crusaders facing third-and-20 from their own 25. That's when King's explosive offense finally showed life, as Boyd had a 73-yard catch and run down to the Lowell 2. Two plays later, Posey scored on a 3-yard bootleg to the right, cutting Lowell's lead to 17-7 with 4:21 left in the first half.
Lowell responded immediately, using a 66-yard pass to Sawyer Olesko to set up a 3-yard touchdown run by Dean with 1:53 to go in the first half, making it a 24-7 game.
King tightened the margin before the break, as Hill made an acrobatic 41-yard catch at the Lowell 12, then grabbed a 12-yard touchdown pass from Posey on the next play to cut Lowell's lead to 24-13 with 25 seconds left in the half. The extra point attempt failed.
Lowell (12-2) used some trickery to build its lead to 31-13, with Nathan Stephens taking a short direct snap on a fourth-and-one punt and running 38 yards to the King 5. Two plays later, Dean scored his third touchdown from four yards out with 8:24 left in the third quarter.
Dean finished with 99 yards rushing and three touchdowns on 22 carries. Stevens was 6 for 9 for 186 yards, running 22 times for 66 yards and two touchdowns.
The MHSAA Football Finals are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTOS: (Top) Detroit Martin Luther King’s Donnie Corley pulls down a touchdown pass on the final play of the game to give the Crusaders the lead and win. (Middle) King players celebrate their second MHSAA championship.