Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Playmaking Sargent Powers Chargers

November 25, 2015

By Bill Khan
Special for Second Half


FLINT — Most high school football coaches aren't comfortable having their quarterbacks, no matter how athletic they are, perform double duty by playing defense.

The risk of injury or excessive fatigue is simply too great.

Flint Powers Catholic's Bob Buckel is no different than the majority of his peers.

"I'll be honest, I don't feel comfortable having him on the field all the time," Buckel said of senior quarterback Noah Sargent.

And, yet, having Sargent play defensive back when he isn't running the offense is one of the reasons why Powers (11-2) will play Zeeland West (13-0) for the MHSAA Division 4 championship at 7:30 p.m. Friday at Ford Field.

Sargent's team-high third interception of the season played a major role in Powers' 21-14 come-from-behind victory over Detroit Country Day in the Semifinals last Saturday in a snowstorm at West Bloomfield

He had already ignited a comeback from a 14-0 halftime deficit by tossing a 38-yard touchdown pass to Peyton Beauchamp. Sargent's one-handed interception later in the third quarter at the Country Day 20-yard line set up a 20-yard touchdown run by Reese Morgan.

Showing off one more aspect of his skill set, Sargent scored the winning touchdown on a 2-yard run with 26 seconds left in the game, putting Powers in the MHSAA championship game for the third time in school history. The 2005 team won the Division 4 championship, while the 2011 squad won the Division 5 title.

Putting an exclamation point on his performance, Sargent knocked down Country Day's final desperation pass as time expired.

"Noah understands we don't want him to get killed on defense," Buckel said. "We really try to put him on the best receiver and keep him out of harm's way. I heard someone earlier in the year say, 'When you get to the playoffs, you've got to save him.' I said, 'When you get to the playoffs, you have to play every play like it's your last play.' You throw him out there and hope for the best; the best happened last Saturday."

Sargent has 19 tackles, ranking ninth on the team. He is part of a defense that has allowed only 21 points in four playoff games and posted a school-record six shutouts.

"Coach really only plays me as a cover guy," Sargent said. "He doesn't like to throw me down (near the line). He uses me in coverage on third-and-long situations and passing downs."

As a quarterback, Sargent has displayed the kind of dual-threat capability that was integral to Powers' last MHSAA championship four years ago. Garrett Pougnet ran for 159 yards and two touchdowns and threw for 258 yards and four touchdowns in Powers' 56-26 rout of Lansing Catholic in the 2011 title game.

Sargent is Powers' leading rusher, in addition to its leading passer. He's run 134 times for 1,026 yards and 15 touchdowns, including an 83-yard scramble on third down for a touchdown in the playoff opener at Goodrich. He's 104 for 181 for 1,563 yards, 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Five of those touchdown passes came in a 41-0 victory over Goodrich, as he had a hand in all six touchdowns.

"We knew Sargent was the show," Goodrich coach Tom Alward said. "They've got good receivers, but Sargent's the one that makes them go."

Sargent is the son of Mike Sargent, an all-state linebacker at Powers in 1983 and a tight end on Michigan State's 1988 Rose Bowl championship team. Both of Sargent's parents went to Powers, and Noah attends his parents' alma mater with his sister, Nikole, who was the MHSAA Lower Peninsula Division 2 shot put champion as a junior last spring. 

"He's a good leader," said senior tight end Nick Thompson, Powers' leading receiver with 27 catches for 448 yards and seven touchdowns. "He's humble. He's not selfish. He has the aspects of a good leader. You can see it on the field, obviously, and at practice. We trust him."

Sargent isn't the only Charger with a rich Powers pedigree.

Running back Reese Morgan and receiver Matt Wiskur had brothers on the 2011 championship team. Brooks Morgan was a starting receiver, while Ethan Wiskur was a starting defensive back who had an interception in the 2011 title game.

Watching in the stands as middle school students, the younger Morgan and Wiskur brothers had all the incentive they needed heading into high school.

"That's my main motivation," said Wiskur, who has 23 catches for 383 yards and five touchdowns. "They're the strongest team I've ever seen. They had great leaders. They were 5-4 going into the playoffs. They knew they were going to win states the whole time. They were confident in themselves, and they lived up to that."

A similarity between the 2011 and 2015 teams is their slow starts. Powers was on the brink of playoff elimination after six games, starting out 2-4 in Buckel's first season at the helm. This year's team lost its opener, 27-11, to a Flushing team that went 3-5 the rest of the way. The Chargers were 3-2 before winning their last eight games.

"I remember they didn't have a very good start, but they had a lot of heart and they made a big run in the playoffs and kind of shocked everyone," said Morgan, who has run 146 times for 987 yards and 10 touchdowns while catching 27 passes for 317 yards and two scores.

"The talent on that team was incredible. We have the same chance they did of winning."

When Powers steps foot onto the turf at Ford Field on Friday, the current team will play under the watchful eye of youngsters who hope to one day have the same experience.

"Any high schooler wants to leave a legacy when they leave," Sargent said. "Our whole team is trying to make a mark on Powers history."

Bill Khan served as a sportswriter at The Flint Journal from 1981-2011 and currently contributes to the State Champs! Sports Network. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Powers Catholic quarterback Noah Sargent drops back to pass against Midland Dow this season. (Middle) Sargent unloads a throw during the 35-30 loss, but has led the Chargers to an 11-2 record this fall. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)