Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: 11-Player Semis in Review

November 23, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Winter Storm Bella received some of the headlines entering this weekend's MHSAA 11-player Football Semifinals.

But the teams that took the field in mostly snowy conditions earned the rest, with three clinching championship game berths for the first time and seven more undefeated teams keeping perfect records intact. 

See below for a few highlights from all 16 Semifinals. There's plenty more to come this week, including previews of each championship game and coverage of each Friday and Saturday. 

Division 1

Romeo 48, Grand Ledge 21 – This officially can be coined the best season in Romeo history with its first MHSAA Finals berth to go with a school record for wins and a Macomb Area Conference White title. The Bulldogs (12-1) didn’t take their first lead until Jackson Butcher caught a 62-yard touchdown pass from Paul Hurley with 2:19 to go in the first half, but they then scored the last three touchdowns of the game to pull away. Hurley completed 8 of 10 passes for 133 yards and two scores, and Butcher caught five for 103 yards. Ba Blamo went over 1,000 rushing yards for the season with 172 plus two scores for Grand Ledge (12-1), which finished its deepest run since 2000. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.

Detroit Cass Tech 48, Canton 41

The Technicians (11-2) got up 14 points during the first half and then held off a comeback attempt by Canton to make the Division 1 Final for the first time since 2012. Sophomore Aaron Jackson, filling in for injured quarterback Rodney Hall, completed 4 of 5 passes for 216 yards and two touchdowns and ran for a third score, while junior Donovan Johnson ran for 154 yards and two scores and junior Timothy Cheatham gained 91 yards and two scores. Canton (10-3), in its first Semifinal since 2006, was paced by Marcus Sanders’ 298 yards rushing and three touchdowns on the ground – including one with 38 seconds to play that pulled the Chiefs to within seven of the lead. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Division 2

Lowell 49, Walled Lake Western 34

The Red Arrows (12-1) avenged a 42-40 opening night loss to Walled Lake Western to earn a trip to Ford Field for the first time since 2011. Quarterback Ryan Stevens continued his sharp play with three touchdowns passing and three more rushing to give him 47 combined this season. Walled Lake Western (12-1), pursuing its first Finals berth since 1999, led 10-7 after the first quarter and got back within four heading into the fourth before Lowell scored three times over the final 12 minutes. Quarterback Kyle Thomas ran for two scores and threw for a third. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Detroit Martin Luther King 40, Livonia Franklin 6

King (13-0) moved one more step closer to a perfect run by taking a 20-0 advantage after the first quarter and following senior quarterback Armani Posey and his three touchdown passes to a lead Franklin never threatened. The Crusaders will play in an MHSAA Final for the first time since winning in 2007. Franklin, making its deepest postseason run since 1975, the first year of the MHSAA playoffs, finished 9-4 – its best record since 2005. The Patriots were only 2-7 a year ago, their fourth straight sub.-500 finish. Click for more from MLive-Detroit.

Division 3

Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 14, East Grand Rapids 7

These two perennial powers have now met six times over the last decade, including three times in MHSAA Finals – but this was the first victory for St. Mary’s (11-1). The reigning Division 3 champion got its final edge on a 70-yard touchdown run by Ryan Johnson to open the second half and will play in its fifth championship game in six seasons. This was East Grand Rapids’ first Semifinal since 2011; the Pioneers (9-4) scored on their first possession but didn’t reach the end zone again the rest of the way. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Chelsea 35, Coldwater 7

The winner was guaranteed the first MHSAA Finals appearance in school history, and Chelsea took hold early jumping to a 28-0 first-half lead. Junior quarterback Jake Bush threw three touchdowns passes and ran for a fourth score as the Bulldogs (12-1) set a team record for wins in earning a first trip to Ford Field. Coldwater ended its deepest playoff run and winningest season but continued an impressive run that’s seen the team go from 1-8 in 2011 and 2012, to 5-5 with its first playoff berth in 2013, to 8-2 in 2014 and 12-1 this fall. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.

Division 4

Zeeland West 46, Ada Forest Hills Eastern 8

West’s rumbling run-heavy offense is perfect for days like snowy Saturday, and the Dux (13-0) piled up nearly 400 yards in earning a return to Ford Field after falling in the Semifinal a year ago. West’s defense also played a starring role, allowing single-digit points for the fifth time in six games. Forest Hills Eastern hadn’t been held to fewer than 13 points since 2012. The Hawks did end their best season at 11-2 after four straight sub-.500 finishes including 4-5 each of the last two years. Click for more from the Holland Sentinel.

Flint Powers Catholic 21, Detroit Country Day 14

The Chargers (11-2) will return to Ford Field for the second time in five seasons after quarterback Noah Sargent scored with 26 seconds to play to give them their first lead. The dual threat standout threw for 97 yards and a touchdown and ran for 88 in addition to his go-ahead score. Country Day (11-2), playing for its first Finals berth since 2012, took a 14-0 lead into the second half. Junior Steve Mann threw for 108 yards and a touchdown for the Yellowjackets. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Division 5

Grand Rapids West Catholic 42, Lansing Catholic 13

West Catholic (11-2) will play in its fifth Final in six years after winning this rematch of last season’s championship game. Any ideas that the Falcons were in demise after a 1-2 start clearly were exaggerated; they’ve beaten four opponents during the playoffs that entered a combined 39-3. The Cougars scored first, but West Catholic scored three times during the second quarter; for the game, sophomore quarterback Gaetano Vallone ran for two touchdowns and threw for two more. Lansing Catholic (11-2) had been held under 20 points only one other time since opening night 2013. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

River Rouge 28, Ida 26

River Rouge (12-1) turned its first Semifinal appearance into its first championship game berth by holding off a late comeback attempt by Ida and stopping a 2-point conversion try that would’ve tied the score during the final seconds of regulation. River Rouge built a two-score lead during the first half, but the teams were tied 20-20 when quarterback Antoine Burgess found Alexander Carter for a go-ahead scoring pass and then added the eventual game-winning points on the conversion. Ida finished 12-1 after also playing in its first Semifinal. Click for more from the Southgate News-Herald.

Division 6

Clinton 42, Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 20

Clinton’s opponents were a combined 37-5 entering the playoffs, and beating previously-undefeated NorthPointe Christian earned the Redskins (13-0) a rematch of the 2013 Division 6 Final against Ithaca. Clinton’s running attack was nearly unstoppable; Noah Poore ran for 248 yards and two touchdowns, and Mathew Sexton ran for 182 yards and two scores. NorthPointe (12-1) saw its season end in the Semifinals for the second straight season and is 23-3 combined over the last two. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Ithaca 28, Traverse City St. Francis 19

Ithaca will play in its sixth straight Division 6 Final after coming back from a slow start to outscore St. Francis 22-6 over the final three quarters. Quarterback Jake Smith threw for 180 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 147 yards and two more scores for the Yellowjackets (13-0), who held St. Francis to eight first downs and took advantage of four turnovers. The Gladiators (12-1) scored immediately on a 95-yard return of the opening kickoff by Joe Trucco and still led 19-15 with just under 11 minutes to play. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

Division 7

Ishpeming 22, New Lothrop 14

The Hematites (12-0) will play in the Division 7 Final for the fourth straight season and for their third title in that time after winning this matchup of undefeated teams. The only game played inside this weekend – at Northern Michigan University’s Superior Dome – still looked like it was in the snow thanks to strong defenses on both sides. Ishpeming quarterback Ozzy Corp ran for 88 yards and two touchdowns and threw a scoring pass, and New Lothrop quarterback Erik Birchmeier threw for 132 yards and ran for a score as neither offense gained 200 total yards. The Hornets finished 12-1 after a sixth-straight perfect regular season. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.

Pewamo-Westphalia 30, Detroit Loyola 0

Pewamo-Westphalia (13-0) will this time move on after this rematch of last season’s Semifinal that sent Loyola to Ford Field to win its first MHSAA title. The Pirates followed the snowy footsteps of running back Jared Smith, who rushed for 193 yards and two touchdowns – adding to his MHSAA single-season record for rushing scores of 52 and giving him the MHSAA record for rushing yards in a season with 3,094. The Pirates also handed Loyola (10-2) its first shutout since 2011. P-W played in a Final once before, in 2011, and Loyola played in the last three in Division 7. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Division 8

Muskegon Catholic Central 33, St. Ignace 20

The Crusaders (11-2) will play for a third straight MHSAA championship after building a 20-0 lead as two running backs went over 100 yards – Walker Christoffersen had 192 and a touchdown and LaTommy Scot ran for 102 and scored both rushing and receiving. St. Ignace scored all 20 of its points during the fourth quarter with Andrew Goldthorpe running for a touchdown and catching a pass for another. The Saints (11-2) were playing in their third Semifinal in five seasons. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Waterford Our Lady 36, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 20

The Lakers (13-0) will play for an MHSAA title for the first time since claiming Division 8 in 2002. Our Lady led only 22-14 heading into the fourth quarter before breaking away. Quarterback Clay Senerius threw two touchdown passes to bring his total to 34 this season. Whiteford (10-3) played in its first Semifinal and had more than 300 yards of total offense, but couldn’t keep pace during the fourth quarter and missed on a couple of scoring opportunities deep in Lakers territory. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

PHOTO: Clinton trudged through the snow to defeat Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian in a Division 6 Semifinal. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)