Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
A Game for Every Fan: 11-Player Semis
November 20, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Rain, sleet, or a few inches inches of snow, we expect to know our 16 11-player football finalists by the end of Saturday afternoon.
But even fans of the college football games being played this weekend should make sure to have MHSAA.tv and FoxSportsDetroit.com playing on their computers, tablets or smartphones, as the 16 MHSAA Semifinals should produce at least a few classics.
See below for a brief breakdown of all 16 games, and watch all 16 live by clicking the links above beginning at 1 p.m.
Division 1
Romeo (11-1) vs. Grand Ledge (12-0) at Brighton
The Comets are attempting to make their first MHSAA Final since winning Division 1 in 2000 and after scoring 33 unanswered fourth-quarter points last week to beat Rockford. Grand Ledge has nearly 3,800 yards of offense this fall, with senior running backs Ba Blamo (993 yards/18 touchdowns rushing) and Caden Evert (543/15) carrying much of the load but sophomore quarterback Nolan Bird (1,445 yards/15 TDs passing) also progressing quickly. This is Romeo’s first Semifinal since 1992, and has come after advancing through arguably the toughest road in the tournament – reigning champion Clarkston, undefeated Lapeer and Detroit Catholic Central. Senior quarterback Paul Hurley completed more than two-thirds of his passes for 953 yards and 18 touchdowns through the regular season, and senior Bradley Tanner had scored 19 touchdowns through nine games.
Detroit Cass Tech (10-2) vs. Canton (10-2) at Troy Athens
Playing its sixth straight Semifinal, Cass Tech is looking to get back to the Division 1 championship game for the first time since 2012. The Technicians’ only losses were to Division 2 contender Detroit Martin Luther King – although this game certainly will be a test with play-making quarterback Rodney Hall reportedly out Saturday with an ankle injury. Canton might be a surprise to make it this far, but left no doubt in downing undefeated and 2014 runner-up Saline 27-7 in the Regional Final. The Chiefs have reached this round for the first time since 2006 after rebounding from a pair of consecutive losses midseason and on a rushing attack that has gained 4,388 yards – including 2,184 with 27 touchdowns by junior Markus Sanders.
Division 2
Walled Lake Western (12-0) vs. Lowell (11-1) at Alma College
These two met in one of the most exciting games of opening weekend, with Walled Lake Western coming away with a 42-40 victory. The Warriors are trying to reach their first MHSAA Final since 1999 and will follow senior quarterback Kyle Thomas, who has thrown for 2,154 yards and 24 touchdowns and run for 743 yards and 10 scores. Lowell hasn’t lost again, instead rolling up more than 5,500 yards in total offense with no other opponent coming within 14 points. The Red Arrows too are led by a dynamic dual-threat quarterback; senior Ryan Stevens has thrown for 2,230 yards and 28 TDs and run for 872 yards and 13 scores.
Detroit Martin Luther King (12-0) vs. Livonia Franklin (9-3) at Dearborn
King is playing in its third MHSAA Semifinal in five seasons, but looking to return to Finals weekend for the first time since the perfect run in 2007. The Crusaders are loaded with offensive standouts who have drawn statewide attention all season – notably, senior running back Martell Pettaway (1,180 yards/14 touchdowns rushing through nine games), senior quarterback Armani Posey (1,319 yards/12 TDs passing) and senior receiver Donnie Corley (858 yards/9 TDs receiving). Franklin was on no one’s Semifinal radar after a 2-3 start, but has won seven straight to make its first Semifinal since winning the first Class A title in 1975. Senior quarterback Denzel Adams (1,623 yards/23 touchdowns) and junior running back Jacob Clark (1,446 yards/15 TDs) have combined for more than 3,000 of the team’s 4,545 yards on the ground, and Adams also has thrown for 1,029 yards and 13 scores.
Division 3
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (10-1) vs. East Grand Rapids (9-3) at Howell
Reigning champion St. Mary’s is playing to make its fifth MHSAA Final in six seasons and has outscored its first three playoff opponents by a combined 160-35. Running back Justin Myrick (1,049 yards/13 touchdowns rushing) and quarterback Brendan Tabone (1,020 yards/5 TDs passing) have led the way for the second straight season. East Grand Rapids hasn’t played a game of this magnitude since ending a string of six straight Semifinals in 2011. The Pioneers haven’t given up a point in two weeks and only 14 over the last month, and on offense ride the legs of senior running Bryce Henkey (1,152 yards/20 touchdowns rushing through the District Final).
Chelsea (11-1) vs. Coldwater (12-0) at Jackson
This will be the first Semifinal for an otherwise annually successful Chelsea program. The Bulldogs can make their first championship game and break the team record for wins with one more. They had a string of five straight shutouts during the first half of this season and have given up only 34 points total during the playoffs. Junior quarterback Jack Bush has thrown for 1,603 yards and 14 touchdowns and run for eight more scores. Coldwater also is playing in its first Semifinal – it made the playoffs for the first time only two seasons ago – and hasn’t let an opponent within 14 points since Week 2. The Cardinals have thrown for only 250 yards – because they’ve run for 4,261, with junior Sam DeMeester (1,154 yards/14 TDs), senior Spencer Burns (1,120 yards/17 TDs) and senior Luke Beckhusen (1,107 yards/12 TDs) all crossing the 1,000-yard rushing milestone.
Division 4
Zeeland West (12-0) vs. Ada Forest Hills Eastern (11-1) at East Kentwood
West has won 36 of its last 37 games, with that lone defeat in a Semifinal a year ago. The secret to the Dux’ success hasn’t been a surprise for a while; they run, run and run some more. Senior fullback Darius Perisee leads the rush this time with 1,796 yards and 28 touchdowns. Forest Hills Eastern is a field goal from perfection during its most successful season, which will now include its first Semifinal. The Hawks take a more balanced approach on offense, led by senior quarterback Jack Clark (1,932 yards/22 touchdowns passing, 752 yards/19 touchdowns rushing).
Detroit Country Day (11-1) vs. Flint Powers Catholic (10-2) at West Bloomfield
Country Day is playing in its third Semifinal in four seasons and seeking to return to Ford Field for the first time since 2012. The Yellowjackets’ only loss was Week 2 to Detroit U-D Jesuit; they’ve given up only 45 points total over the last 10 weeks and 75 for the season. Junior quarterback Steve Mann is the player to watch on offense, with 1,369 yards and 18 touchdowns through the air and six more scores on the ground. Powers is trying to get back to Ford Field for the first time since 2011 led by a similarly stellar defense giving up only nine points per game. Like that championship team, the Chargers are keyed on offense by a dangerous dual threat quarterback in senior Noah Sargent, who has run for 941 yards and 14 touchdowns and thrown for 1,466 yards and 17 scores.
Division 5
Lansing Catholic (11-1) vs. Grand Rapids West Catholic (10-2) at Greenville
This is a rematch of last season’s MHSAA Division 5 Final, a 24-20 West Catholic win. The Falcons have played in four of the last five championship games and five straight Semifinals. This year’s leaders have different names, but similar impact. Senior Denny Alt has run for 1,291 yards and 17 touchdowns, and sophomore Gaetano Vallone stepped in at quarterback and has thrown for 2,347 yards and 26 scores while running for 738 yards and 10 TDs. A return to Ford Field would be Lansing Catholic’s third in five seasons, and senior quarterback Tony Poljan would love another chance to lead his team to the school’s first title since 1985; he’s thrown for 1,746 yards and 14 touchdowns and run for 1,156 yards and 24 scores.
River Rouge (11-1) vs. Ida (12-0) at Novi
River Rouge will play in its first Semifinal, the next step of a successful run of six straight playoff appearances. The Panthers are four points from perfection this fall and have tied a team record for wins led by a pair of 1,000-yard rushers including senior quarterback Antoine Burgess (1,040 yards/11 touchdowns rushing, 1,270 yards/24 TDs passing). Ida also will play in its first Semifinal after winning 10 of 12 games by at least 10 points. The Bluestreaks have thrown only 36 passes because they’ve run for 4,247 yards. Senior Eric Bugg has 1,865 yards and 32 touchdowns on the ground, and junior Nick Levicki has totaled 1,328 yards and 17 scores.
Division 6
Ithaca (12-0) vs. Traverse City St. Francis (12-0) at Clare
The senior-laden Yellowjackets have been playing all season for an opportunity to return to Ford Field after watching their 69-game winning streak come to an end in last season’s Final. Ithaca’s roster is loaded with players who have started at least two seasons including senior quarterback Jake Smith, who has run for 1,485 yards and 29 touchdowns and thrown for 1,162 yards and 22 scores. St. Francis is back in the Semifinals for the first time since 2009. The Gladiators have given up only 75 points against a strong schedule, a solid complement to an offense that’s run for 3753 yards and 61 touchdowns led by senior Joe Trucco (1,207 yards).
Clinton (12-0) vs. Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (12-0) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
Clinton’s lineup of defeated playoff opponents rivals Romeo’s in Division 1 – reigning champion Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, plus Madison Heights Madison and Jackson Lumen Christi. The Redskins are looking to reach Ford Field for the second time in three seasons. Senior running back/linebacker Mathew Sexton has run for 2,065 yards and 33 touchdowns and also scored twice each on kickoff and punt returns. NorthPointe Christian has made its second straight Semifinal after surviving two straight games decided by three points or fewer. The Mustangs will attempt to lock down Clinton like it did their opponents Weeks 2-9, when they didn’t give up more than eight points in a game.
Division 7
New Lothrop (12-0) vs. Ishpeming (11-0) at Northern Michigan University
Ishpeming is trying to add to its streak of three straight MHSAA Finals appearances, while New Lothrop is trying to get back for the first time since 2006 after one of the most impressive regular-season runs in MHSAA history. The Hornets haven’t lost a regular-season game since 2009, but also haven’t made it past the Semifinals during that run. Junior quarterback Erik Birchmeier leads the way with 1,330 yards and 24 touchdowns rushing and 905 yards and 12 touchdowns passing. Ishpeming fell in last season’s Final after two straight wins in 2012 and 2013, but senior quarterback Ozzy Corp is back for another try and has thrown for 1,047 yards and seven scores while also leading the team in rushing with 644 yards and seven scores. The defense has been arguably the most impressive of the tean's recent run, giving up only 85 points in 11 games.
Detroit Loyola (10-2) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (12-0) at Fenton
Loyola is playing to make its fourth straight MHSAA Final as well, and also with a different cast than in past seasons. The Bulldogs have thrown only 75 passes this season because they’ve run for 3,870 yards; three players could end up over 1,000 yards rushing, although leading rusher and freshman fullback D’Anthony Robinson was injured Week 9 and isn’t expected to return Saturday. Senior quarterback Blaine Woodland has run for 891 yards and 19 touchdowns and averages 13.9 yards per carry. Pewamo-Westphalia’s famed rushing attack will face its toughest test as it runs to return to Ford Field for the first time since 2011. Junior Jared Smith broke the MHSAA single-season rushing touchdown record last week and now has 50 this fall, and with 2,908 yards needs only 55 more to break the single-season rushing record.
Division 8
Muskegon Catholic Central (9-2) vs. St. Ignace (11-1) at Traverse City’s Thirlby Field
MCC’s two-season title streak looked to be over after graduating a number of significant contributors in the spring. Instead, the Crusaders will play in their fourth straight Semifinal. Junior LaTommy Scott is the program’s next great running back; he’s gained 1,089 yards and 16 touchdowns. St. Ignace is playing in its third Semifinal in five seasons hoping to make its first championship game since 1985. The Saints have gained nearly 4,700 yards keyed by senior quarterback Gage Kreski. He’s run for 851 yards and 13 touchdowns and thrown for 1,235 and 16.
Ottawa Lake Whiteford (10-2) vs. Waterford Our Lady (12-0) at Hazel Park
Whiteford has reached 10 wins and a Semifinal for the first time by avenging a regular-season loss, then beating a second rival from its conference, and then downing undefeated Climax-Scotts. A cast of running backs has contributed to more than 3,000 yards rushing, while sophomore quarterback Thomas Eitniear has thrown for 1,030 yards and 14 scores. Our Lady has returned to the form of its successful past with its first Semifinal berth since 2006. Seniors Clay and Devin Senerius are a dynamite receiving combo; Clay has thrown for 2,688 yards and 32 scores, and Devin has caught 61 passes for 1,213 yards and 11 scores.
PHOTO: Walled Lake Western quarterback Kyle Thomas (5) runs toward the end zone during last week's Regional Final win over Midland Dow. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)