Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Playoffs R3 in Review

November 16, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

And then, once again, there were 34. 

Two undefeated 8-player finalists emerged from last week's Semifinals, while a number of moments were celebrated from another round of trophy-raising performances by 32 teams in 11-player Regional Finals. 

8-Player

Powers North Central 70, Cedarville 6 – The first-year 8-player Jets will try to add a first football championship to their boys basketball title from the winter after besting last season’s runner-up, Cedarville (9-3). North Central (12-0) fell just 1.5 points shy of its previous 71.5 points per game average as it continued to dominate on both sides of the field. Click for more from the Sault Ste. Marie Evening News.

Battle Creek St. Philip 52, Deckerville 24 – The Tigers (12-0) also earned their first championship game berth in 8-player, to go with a perfect run to the Class D title in 11-player in 1985. Running back Brayden Darr scored seven touchdowns for the second straight game as St. Philip won its first meeting ever against the 2012 champion Eagles, who finished this fall 10-2. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Division 1

Grand Ledge 36, Rockford 16

Rockford looked like it would be moving on with a 16-3 lead after three quarters. But the Comets unloaded 33 straight points over the final 12 minutes to advance to their first MHSAA Semifinal since the 2000 Division 1 championship run. Grand Ledge never has been 12-0 before now; Rockford completed its 21st straight playoff appearance at 8-4. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Also noted:

Romeo 40, Detroit Catholic Central 29 – Romeo’s first Regional title since 1992 came as the Bulldogs (11-2) set a program record for wins with yet another impressive playoff victory to go with those over Clarkston and Lapeer; DCC finished 9-3, a nice bounce-back from 4-5 in 2014.

Canton 27, Saline 7 – It sounds odd to say a win by Canton (10-2) would count as an upset, but that’s how highly Saline (11-1) has been regarded since making the Division 1 Final a year ago.

Detroit Cass Tech 16, Macomb Dakota 10 – The Technicians (10-2) scored 16 straight points after getting down 10, and neither team scored during the second half as Dakota (9-3) was eliminated by Cass Tech for the second time in three seasons. 

Division 2

Lowell 36, Muskegon 7

This is as impressive a playoff win by Lowell as any since also beating the Big Reds by the same score during the 2011 run to Ford Field. Muskegon (9-3) entered after handing first and only losses, on the road, to both Traverse City Central and Muskegon Mona Shores. But the Red Arrows (11-1) dominated this one from the start and held the Muskegon offense to 151 yards and well below its average of 39 points per game. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted:

Walled Lake Western 35, Midland Dow 14 – Western (12-0) piled up 424 yards of offense in ending the season for Dow (10-2) and moving on to its second Semifinal in five seasons.  

Livonia Franklin 38, Berkley 6 – Franklin (9-3) was only 2-7 a year ago, but has advanced past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2007 and will play its first Semifinal since becoming the first MHSAA Class A champion in 1975, when the playoffs started with Semifinals; Berkley’s 9-3 final record was its best since 2010 and tied the program record for wins.  

Detroit Martin Luther King 26, Detroit East English 12 – For the second time this fall, King (12-0) held off a challenge from Detroit Public School League rival East English (9-3) after also beating the Bulldogs 20-15 during Week 3.

Division 3

Coldwater 20, St. Joseph 6

Another week into the postseason and Coldwater’s wins keep getting more impressive. The undefeated Cardinals’ unprecedented run now includes a first Regional title to go with a program-record 12 wins. Coldwater scored 20 straight points to upend St. Joseph, which saw its best run since 2008 come to an end with a 10-2 record. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Also noted:

East Grand Rapids 35, Mount Pleasant 0 – The Pioneers (9-3) stormed into their first Semifinal since 2011 with a second straight shutout and fourth in six weeks while ending Mount Pleasant’s season also at 9-3.

Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 56, St. Johns 14 – For the fifth time in six seasons, St. Mary’s (10-1) has at least 10 wins, and for the sixth time in seventh seasons will play in a Semifinal; St. Johns (8-4) ended in the Regional Finals for the second time in four seasons.

Chelsea 35, Allen Park 12 – The Bulldogs (11-1) tied their program record for wins with their first Regional title, and against an Allen Park team (10-2) that has earned its most victories since 2006 and had won nine straight.

Division 4

Zeeland West 28, Hudsonville Unity Christian 21

Probably because statewide expectations are always high, Zeeland West hasn’t gotten a ton of attention as it’s rolled along to a fourth Semifinal appearance in five seasons. But this one was interesting throughout. Unity Christian gave the Dux (12-0) their closest game since Week 4 and finished its longest playoff run at 8-4. West had beaten Unity Christian 52-6 in Week 9. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted:

Ada Forest Hills Eastern 34, Remus Chippewa Hills 7 – The Hawks’ history-making run isn’t all about offense; Forest Hills Eastern (11-1) won its first Regional title with perhaps its best defensive game and has given up only 34 points over three during the playoffs; Chippewa Hills finished its longest playoff run at 9-3.

Flint Powers Catholic 28, Richmond 7 – Aside from Richmond’s lone score, it was playoffs as usual for the Chargers (10-2), who have now outscored three opponents by a combined 110-7; Richmond finished 10-2 for the second straight season after also winning a second straight District title.

Detroit Country Day 20, Milan 13 – This had to qualify as a major scare for the Yellowjackets (11-1), whose only close losses were to a pair of larger opponents from the Detroit Catholic League Central; Milan can celebrate a nice turnaround finishing 9-3 after going 4-5 a year ago.  

Division 5

Grand Rapids West Catholic 24, Menominee 14

For the sixth straight season, West Catholic (10-2) ended Menominee’s with a loss – this time the Maroons’ only loss of 2015. West Catholic scored only 24 points –  but held Menominee (11-1) to its fewest since beating the Maroons in the 2013 Division 5 Final. Menominee was averaging 44 points per game heading into the weekend. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted:

Lansing Catholic 25, Freeland 22 – The Cougars (11-1) also handed Freeland (11-1) its first and only loss with a fourth-quarter comeback that featured a defensive touchdown and earned Lansing Catholic a rematch of last season’s championship game, against West Catholic.

Ida 43, Buchanan 20 – The Bluestreaks (12-0) continued their best season, handing Buchanan (11-1) its first and only loss, and impressing against a Bucks defense that hadn’t given up more than 38 points and had given up more than 20 only twice.

River Rouge 51, Algonac 25 – Did you know River Rouge has won at least 10 games three of the last four seasons? The unheralded Panthers won their first Regional title and have outscored three playoff opponents 167-25, with Algonac (10-2) scoring the only points as it finished its best season ever.

Division 6

Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 35, Constantine 34 (OT)

NorthPointe Christian (12-0) set a program record for wins and advanced to the Semifinals for the second straight year in ending arguably the most surprising playoff run regardless of division. Constantine had reached the postseason with an at-large bid and then eliminated previously-undefeated Schoolcraft and one-loss Watervliet. But NorthPointe stopped Constantine (7-5) on a 2-point conversion try after both teams scored in overtime. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted:

Ithaca 34, Laingsburg 10 – The reigning runner-up Yellowjackets (12-0) ended the longest run ever for Laingsburg (8-4), with quarterback Jake Smith throwing two touchdown passes and running for two scores.  

Traverse City St. Francis 12, Boyne City 0 – The Gladiators (12-0) upended their rival for the second time this season to return to the Semifinals for the first time since 2011; Boyne City ended its second straight season of double-digit wins at 10-2.

Clinton 49, Jackson Lumen Christi 20 – The Redskins (12-0) arguably have been the most impressive team in the playoffs, adding Lumen Christi (8-4) to a list of defeated opponents including Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central and Madison Heights Madison. 

Division 7

New Lothrop 34, Sandusky 15

New Lothrop drew even with its 2011 team that also started 12-0 to advance to the Semifinals, earning its third Regional title over the last five seasons. The Hornets scored all of their points during the first half in handing the first and only loss to Sandusky, which finished its best season ever at 11-1 and did hold New Lothrop to its season low in points. Click for more from the Owosso Argus-Press.

Also noted:

Ishpeming 40, McBain 2 – The Hematites (11-0) won a fourth straight Regional title scoring their most points since September and with a defense that stopped McBain’s best season since 2011 at 8-4.

Pewamo-Westphalia 40, Cassopolis 3 – The Pirates (12-0) earned a berth in the Semifinals for the fourth time in five seasons, and junior running back Jared Smith set an MHSAA record with his 50th rushing touchdown and moved into second for yards in a season with 2,901 total; Cassopolis finished its best season since 2007 at 9-2.

Detroit Loyola 50, Dansville 0 – Loyola’s offense gets the attention, and with good reason, but the Bulldogs (10-2) held Dansville (10-2) to 25 total yards in ending the Aggies’ longest playoff run. 

Division 8

Ottawa Lake Whiteford 48, Climax-Scotts 14

This was the upset of the Regional round, but not as huge as it might appear on paper. Climax-Scotts (11-1) was a league champion and undefeated, and had beaten playoff regulars Pittsford and Mendon the first two weeks of the postseason. But Whiteford (10-2) is one of two Tri-County Conference teams in the Semifinals joining Division 6 Clinton and set a program record for wins in a season with this one. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Also noted:

St. Ignace 22, Crystal Falls Forest Park 8 – The Saints (11-1) jumped to a two-score lead and hung on for their second Regional title in four seasons while ending Forest Park’s last run as an 11-player team (at least for the time being, as it will move to 8-player next year) at 7-4.

Muskegon Catholic Central 22, Frankfort 12 – MCC (10-2) held on for its closest playoff win since 2012 against a Frankfort team that posted its best finish since 2009, at 9-3, and led by five going into the fourth quarter.   

Waterford Our Lady 32, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 6 – The Lakers (12-0) have added a first Regional title since 2006 to their long history of accomplishments, while the Cardinals (10-2) ended their best two-season run after making the Semifinals a year ago.  

PHOTO: Grand Ledge players hoist their Division 1 Regional title trophy Friday after defeating Rockford. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)