Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
A Game for Every Fan: Playoffs Week 3
November 12, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Through the rain, and fog, and in some places up north a few flakes of snow, we see the MHSAA Football Finals finally approaching – even if predicting which teams will be playing is still no easy task.
Plenty of opponents facing off this weekend have seen each other at this late date before. For a handful of others, this has been a wild first-time ride.
Here’s a look at what might be the most intriguing of this weekend’s 11-player Regional Finals, plus a longer glance at both 8-player Semifinals. All games are tonight unless noted.
Division 1
Detroit Cass Tech (9-2) at Macomb Dakota (9-2)
It’s hard to believe Macomb Dakota hasn’t played in an MHSAA championship game since 2007, but the 2010 and previously-undefeated 2013 teams both saw their seasons end in Regional Finals against Cass Tech. The Technicians, led by standout quarterback Rodney Hall, have lost only to Detroit Martin Luther King this season, twice. They are playing to make a third straight Semifinal – and get a shot at getting back to the championship game for the first time since 2012.
Other Regional Finals: Rockford (8-3) at Grand Ledge (11-0), Detroit Catholic Central (9-2) at Romeo (10-1), Canton (9-2) at Saline (10-0).
Division 2
Muskegon (9-2) at Lowell (10-1)
Muskegon’s path has been such that every week’s game has been one of the state’s most anticipated. After eliminating previously undefeated Traverse City Central and Muskegon Mona Shores in the District, the Big Reds must hit the road again to take on a Lowell team that is only two three-point losses from perfection. Not that this is an unfamiliar position for either program – although they didn’t meet last year, Lowell and Muskegon ran across each other in the playoffs six straight seasons from 2008-13.
Other Regional Finals: Midland Dow (10-1) at Walled Lake Western (11-0), Livonia Franklin (8-3) at Berkley (9-2), Detroit East English (9-2) at Detroit Martin Luther King (11-0), Saturday.
Division 3
Coldwater (11-0) at St. Joseph (10-1)
This trip into uncharted waters keeps getting longer for the Cardinals, who won their first playoff game ever two weeks ago. Although this level of the tournament is new, St. Joseph isn’t a completely unfamiliar opponent – the Bears beat Coldwater on opening night 2013. St. Joseph has downed league champions three of its last four games and is seeking its first Regional title since 2007.
Other Regional Finals: Chelsea (10-1) at Allen Park (10-1), East Grand Rapids (8-3) at Mount Pleasant (9-2), Saturday; St. Johns (8-3) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (9-1), Saturday.
Division 4
Flint Powers Catholic (9-2) at Richmond (10-1)
The first game between these schools features two programs looking to get over the Regional hump. Powers has fallen in two Regional Finals in three seasons since winning Division 5 in 2011. Richmond lost in the Regional Final last year after falling in District Finals both of the two seasons prior; the Blue Devils are trying to make their first Semifinal since 2003. After winning its playoff games by a combined eight points, Richmond will have to contend with a Chargers defense that hasn’t given up a point in these playoffs and has six shutouts total in 11 games.
Other Regional Finals: Remus Chippewa Hills (9-2) at Ada Forest Hills Eastern (10-1), Hudsonville Unity Christian (8-3) at Zeeland West (11-0), Milan (9-2) at Detroit Country Day (10-1), Saturday.
Division 5
Grand Rapids West Catholic (9-2) at Menominee (11-0), Saturday
This has become an annual game at some stage of the playoffs. Saturday will mark the sixth straight postseason meeting between these two, including Semifinals last season, 2010 and 2012 and the 2013 Division 5 Final. The Maroons usually can take advantage of opponents not familiar with their single-wing offense, but West Catholic should be plenty familiar; what Menominee can boast this time is its most impressive defense since the back-to-back undefeated seasons of 2006 and 2007.
Other Regional Finals: Lansing Catholic (10-1) at Freeland (11-0), Buchanan (11-0) at Ida (11-0), Algonac (10-1) at River Rouge (10-1).
Division 6
Boyne City (10-1) at Traverse City St. Francis (11-0)
The first battle between these rivals this season wasn’t much of one by the end, with St. from running back Malik Smith, and fumbled three times – which makes it feel like this rematch will be much closer if the Ramblers keep mistakes to a minimum. It’s fair to say St. Francis creates its own opportunities, though; the Gladiators have five shutouts in 11 games.
Other Regional Finals: Laingsburg (8-3) at Ithaca (11-0), Jackson Lumen Christi (8-3) at Clinton (11-0), Constantine (7-4) at Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (11-0), Saturday.
Division 7
Sandusky (11-0) at New Lothrop (11-0)
Sandusky is stacking accomplishments like no football team at the school before. The Redskins have more than nine wins for the first time and won a District title for the first time, and now will take on the powerhouse Hornets for the first time. Few teams in Michigan have put together a run over the last six seasons like New Lothrop, which is 65-5 during that span. But the Hornets have been stopped short of the MHSAA championship game all of those seasons, and surely would like a first Finals appearance since 2006 to add to its recent local dominance.
Other Regional Finals: Cassopolis (9-2) at Pewamo-Westphalia (11-0), Dansville (10-1) at Detroit Loyola (9-2), McBain (8-3) at Ishpeming (10-0).
Division 8
Crystal Falls Forest Park (7-3) at St. Ignace (10-1)
In pursuit of its third Regional title in five seasons – and really, in pursuit of its first MHSAA Final appearance since 1985 – St. Ignace has shown well against the toughest competition of its season. Three of the last four games, all four against playoff teams, have been decided by eight points or fewer, and the Saints came back from a second trip to rival Johannesburg-Lewiston last week with a second win over the Cardinals. Forest Park has no losses left to avenge after winning rematches the last two weeks against the two in-state teams it fell to during the regular season. But the Trojans did fall to St. Ignace in their last meeting, a 2011 Regional Final.
Other Regional Finals: Ottawa Lake Whiteford (9-2) at Climax-Scotts (11-0), Saturday; Muskegon Catholic Central (8-2) at Frankfort (9-2), Saturday; Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (10-1) at Waterford Our Lady (11-0), Saturday.
8-Player
Cedarville (9-2) at Powers North Central (11-0)
North Central is led by a talented quarterback making the entire state take notice – junior Jason Whitens is up to 41 touchdown passes without an interception to go with his 10 scores on the ground, and junior running back Bobby Kleiman has run for 17 touchdowns and caught 14 of Whitens’ scoring tosses. But Cedarville doesn’t give up too many scores. The Trojans handed Owendale-Gagetown and Posen their only losses of the season the last two weeks, giving up only 48 points total over those two games – a respectable total in the wide-open 8-player format.
Deckerville (10-1) vs. Battle Creek St. Philip (11-0), Saturday at Battle Creek Central
St. Philip got past rival Lawrence one final time last week, but the path to Legacy Field remains blocked by another past champion. Deckerville avenged its lone loss of the season by doubling up Morrice last week and has run over opponents for nearly 3,400 yards, with senior Jared Philpot and juniors Austin Fritch and Brandon Pattullo combining for 2,300 yards and 37 touchdowns on the ground. The Eagles have thrown only 48 times, but St. Philip is much more balanced. The Tigers have nearly the same rushing and passing yardage totals this season – within 77 yards – with senior Brendan Gausselin throwing 35 touchdown passes and senior Brayden Darr running for 23 scores and catching 14 touchdown passes.
PHOTO: Traverse City St. Francis, here against Elk Rapids, is 11-0 for the first time since its undefeated season of 2009. (Photo courtesy of St. Francis athletic department.)