Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
'New' Algonac Energized by Turnaround
October 27, 2015
By Bill Khan
Special for Second Half
ALGONAC — Algonac has been home for A.J. Garshott since he was 5 years old.
Yet, it's like he's living in an entirely new town this fall.
"I honestly have never seen Algonac like this in my entire life," the Muskrats' senior quarterback said. "It's completely different. You drive through town and every sign has stuff about our football team on it. There's signs in every yard. The fan base is unreal, how many people come to our games now. Last year, there'd be half the bleachers full. Now it's only standing room."
Football can have that impact on a small community.
"It's been overwhelming, to be quite honest, with the number of people who have gotten together, maybe because of the football team," Algonac coach Scott Barnhart said. "But they've renewed their enthusiasm for the community. The atmosphere around here is electric. Every business in town has 'Go Muskrats' up on their sign. I've been introduced to people who have come out and watched the team play who haven't been to a game in years. That's a great feeling for our kids and their parents. The people out there come away with a good feeling about the education their kids are getting here in town. It all feeds on itself."
The heightened sense of pride in this town which sits along the St. Clair River across from Canada stems from one of the most remarkable turnarounds experienced by any football program in the state.
Algonac is one of 38 teams during the 41-year MHSAA playoff era to win at least eight regular-season games one year after losing at least eight games. Hesperia also had a remarkable turnaround this season, going from 1-8 to 9-0. (See all 38 teams below.)
The 2014 season was all too typical for Algonac, as the Muskrats stumbled to a 1-8 record. It was the 19th time in the last 22 years that Algonac had a losing record, the only exceptions being a three-year run from 2004-06 in which the school had its only two playoff appearances and went 19-10.
It took only one night to let Algonac and the entire Port Huron area know that these were not your father's or your big brother's Muskrats.
Algonac opened the season with a 19-18 victory over Marine City, taking the lead with 36 seconds left on a 19-yard pass from Garshott to Luke Stephenson and sealing the deal with Joe McKee's second interception of the game.
Marine City was a huge hurdle for the Muskrats to clear. Algonac had lost 15 straight times to the Mariners, last winning 12-0 in 1986. Marine City, the 2013 MHSAA Division 4 champion, would bounce back to qualify for the playoffs for the 18th straight year.
"That was a huge confidence booster," Garshott said. "They've been the best team in the area. Coming out, they were thinking we were the old Algonac and we came out on top. It was a really cool feeling, especially to throw a touchdown with (36) seconds left."
"It was huge to come out in Week 1 and compete with a team as good as Marine City," senior defensive end Mason Ruhlman said. "We not only compete with them, but beat them. It was an unreal feeling."
For the Muskrats, the victory was an affirmation that all of their hard work in the offseason would pay off.
"We definitely saw improvements over the summer," Ruhlman said. "Guys were working out. The numbers were a lot better. We actually had guys showing up. In the weight room, we had 25 guys coming, compared to last year we had seven or eight guys."
Beating Marine City would've been the highlight of the season for past Algonac teams, but the Muskrats had much more in store for their fans as the season unfolded.
With consecutive shutouts over Imlay City, Armada and Yale in Weeks 3-5, the Muskrats had three straight shutouts for the first time since opening 1968 with three in a row. Algonac hadn't posted back-to-back shutouts since 1991.
Following a 28-0 shutout over Yale, the competition got tougher over the next three weeks. Algonac was down 21-7 in the second quarter against Croswell-Lexington, an eventual playoff qualifier, before scoring the final four touchdowns in a 33-21 victory. The following week, the Muskrats fell behind 7-0 in the first quarter against another playoff qualifier, Almont, before shutting out the Raiders the rest of the way in a 21-7 victory.
Algonac went into Week 8 with a perfect season and outright Blue Water Area Conference title on the line, but lost 15-14 to a Richmond team that finished the regular season with an 8-1 record. Richmond took a 15-14 lead on a 92-yard kickoff return by D'Sean Hamilton before halftime. The teams played a scoreless second half, with Algonac's fourth turnover of the game ending a promising drive late in the fourth quarter.

"It was just terrible," Ruhlman said. "We worked so hard, then it came down to the wire and we just didn't come out on top. We battled and showed a lot of good things in that game as a team. We had a lot of guys battle through some stuff. There were positive notes in that game."
By beating Brown City, 50-27, last Friday, the Muskrats had eight regular-season victories for the first time since the 1972 team went 8-0. Algonac was 8-3 in 2004, winning a playoff game against New Haven.
The Muskrats will open the MHSAA Division 5 playoffs at home at 7 p.m. Friday against Clinton Township Clintondale. If Algonac wins, it will have a rematch with Marine City or Almont in the district final.
The Muskrats have been looking forward to the playoff atmosphere since clinching a berth with three regular-season games remaining.
"It's been 10 years since they've been in the playoffs, and we won our first league title since 1972," Barnhart said. "We stopped to smell the roses briefly and talked to the kids about that. They and their parents all have questions about the playoffs and how this business works with points and matchups. We took a little bit of time to talk through that with people. Then we had to stop and get business taken care of."
How did a team that finished so badly a year ago become so dominant this season?
First off, there were some extenuating circumstances that contributed heavily to that 1-8 record in 2014.
The Muskrats started eight sophomores last season. They lost their leading receiver, rusher and tackler to lengthy injuries. One key player from this year's team was ineligible last year, while another who "was making some poor decisions" has turned things around to be a key part of this year's success. Garshott got a year of experience as a starting quarterback as a junior.
"You tally all of those things together and we were not as bad a team last year," Barnhart said. "The leadership this year has been phenomenal. I do think that has made a huge difference.
"The kids have been very confident in what they've done to prepare. I don't mean it to sound like an arrogant statement, even though it kinda does, but if you ask any coach going into a season, there's great enthusiasm and excitement of the unknown. If you do it right, I don't think it should surprise you very much."
Algonac has outscored opponents 321-95, breaking the school scoring record of 300 points set in 11 games by the 2004 team. The average of 10.6 points allowed is Algonac's lowest since the 1972 unbeaten team allowed 6.4 points per game.
Garshott is 68 for 135 passing for 1,175 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has run for eight touchdowns. His leading receiver is senior Owen Kaatz, who has 25 catches for 526 yards and five touchdowns.
Junior Joe McKee has run 79 times for 406 yards and seven touchdowns, to go with 12 catches for 163 yards and a touchdown.
The defense has not only shut down opponents, but has scored four touchdowns and a safety. Ruhlman has returned two fumbles for touchdowns.
Sophomore middle linebacker Luke Stephenson has a team-high 65 tackles. More impressively, he is one of the team's four captains along with seniors Ruhlman, Garshott and linebacker Tom Goldenbogen.
"I've never had a sophomore captain before and don't think I ever will," Barnhart said. "He's got all the intangibles. It's attitude, discipline, work ethic, all of those things you want your captains to have. We've had seniors with all of those things that just don't have their teammates respond to them. It's an intangible thing to see how kids respond to some of the would-be leaders on your team."
Goldenbogen has 61 tackles. Sophomore Nick Folkerts has three interceptions.
"It was rough last year," Ruhlman said. "We didn't really have anything to look forward to. It was still awesome to be playing football, but it's completely different this year knowing we're going to the playoffs."
Teams winning at least eight regular-season games the year after losing at least eight games during playoff era (since 1975):
Grand Rapids Union, 1974-75, 1-8 to 9-0 (missed playoffs)
Richland Gull Lake, 1974-75, 1-8 to 8-1 (missed playoffs)
Essexville-Garber, 1976-77, 1-8 to 8-1 (8-2 including playoffs)
Cheboygan Catholic, 1977-78, 1-8 to 8-1 (missed playoffs)
Woodhaven, 1977-78, 0-9 to 8-1 (missed playoffs)
St. Joseph, 1979-80, 1-8 to 9-0 (9-1 including playoffs)
Chelsea, 1980-81, 1-8 to 8-1 (missed playoffs)
Kalkaska, 1980-81, 0-8 to 9-0 (missed playoffs)
Schoolcraft, 1981-82, 1-8 to 8-1 (missed playoffs)
Morenci, 1985-86, 1-8 to 8-1 (missed playoffs)
Dansville, 1988-89, 1-8 to 8-1 (missed playoffs)
Richland Gull Lake, 1988-89, 1-8 to 8-1 (missed playoffs)
Waterford Kettering, 1993-94, 1-8 to 8-1 (8-2 including playoffs)
Galesburg-Augusta, 1994-95, 1-8 to 8-1 (8-2 including playoffs)
Pellston, 1994-95, 0-8-1 to 8-1 (missed playoffs)
Ortonville Brandon, 1995-96, 1-8 to 9-0 (9-1 including playoffs)
St. Ignace, 1995-96, 1-8 to 8-1 (10-2 including playoffs)
Chesaning, 1996-97, 1-8 to 8-1 (9-2 including playoffs)
Ypsilanti, 1996-97, 1-8 to 8-1 (9-2 including playoffs)
Hale, 1998-99, 1-8 to 8-1 (8-2 including playoffs)
Birch Run, 1999-2000, 1-8 to 8-1 (8-2 including playoffs)
Farmington, 2001-02, 0-9 to 8-1 (10-2 including playoffs)
Leroy-Pine River, 2003-04, 0-9 to 8-1 (8-2 including playoffs)
Southfield, 2003-04, 1-8 to 9-0 (9-1 including playoffs)
Dearborn Heights Robichaud, 2006-07, 0-9 to 8-1 (9-2 including playoffs)
Battle Creek St. Philip, 2007-08, 1-8 to 9-0 (9-1 including playoffs)
Inkster, 2007-08, 1-8 to 8-1 (12-2 including playoffs)
Livonia Clarenceville, 2007-08, 1-8 to 8-1 (9-2 including playoffs)
Mason, 2007-08, 1-8 to 8-1 (9-2 including playoffs)
Ecorse, 2008-09, 1-8 to 8-1 (8-2 including playoffs)
Stockbridge, 2008-09, 1-8 to 8-1 (9-2 including playoffs)
Bellaire, 2009-10, 0-9 in 11-player to 9-0 in 8-player (9-1 including playoffs)
Springport, 2009-10, 1-8 to 9-0 (9-1 including playoffs)
Detroit Douglass, 2010-11, 1-8 to 8-1 (9-2 including playoffs)
Detroit University Prep, 2011-12, 1-8 to 8-1 (8-2 including playoffs)
Milan, 2011-12, 1-8 to 9-0 (10-1 including playoffs)
Algonac, 2014-15, 1-8 to 8-1 (qualified for playoffs)
Hesperia, 2014-15, 1-8 to 9-0 (qualified for playoffs)
Bill Khan served as a sportswriter at The Flint Journal from 1981-2011 and currently contributes to the State Champs! Sports Network. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Algonac quarterback A.J. Garshott follows his blockers on a run during last week's win over Brown City. (Middle) Senior defensive end Mason Ruhlman (21) has returned two fumble recoveries for touchdowns this fall. (Photos courtesy of Algonac football.)