Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '17

October 22, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Special for Second Half

We haven’t had Michigan high school football teams travel by boat to their playoff games, nor fly like the birds over places like Saginaw Bay and the northern stretch of Lake Michigan.

But phrases like “use the lake” and “follow the highway” dominated this year’s playoff mapping process, which once again saw members of the MHSAA staff and representatives of the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association draw into Districts and Regionals nearly 300 dots for our 10-division tournament that kicks off this weekend.

At the end of Saturday – around 9:48 p.m., to be nearly exact – there were 223 automatic qualifiers for the 256-team 11-player tournament, plus 32 for 8-player. By midnight, we had our entire playoff field more or less figured. Sunday at the MHSAA started before sunrise with double, triple and quadruple-checking, before a committee of 12 met to draw the tournament, go over all of each other’s work again, and then get everything ready to be presented online at MHSAA.com and broadcast across the state Sunday night on FOX Sports Detroit.

So much more than that goes into the football playoffs, of course. Athletic directors are scheduling games years in advance, and we start loading schedules into our system in late April. We monitor every game played every week by 614 Michigan varsity teams, plus this season 48 of our schools’ non-Michigan opponents located in five states and Ontario. Now we’re on to lining up everything that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal hosts and continuing our work with Northern Michigan University and Ford Field’s staffs to prepare for the 8 and 11-player Finals.

But we’re also the first to say that all of that is background noise to what we all look forward to most – five weeks of the best games our state has to offer again this fall.

As we’ve done the past six seasons, we’re explaining below our most difficult decisions in placing 288 playoff qualifiers in this Mapnalysis 2017 breakdown. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2017.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season. This fall, a second division of 8-player football was introduced, and we will celebrate 10 champions for the first time.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 223 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 33 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those five we added 10 teams from Class A and nine each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus this year two representatives from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is similar but changed this fall with the additional division. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2017

Let’s start with Congratulations: First to Detroit Western and St. Louis, which qualified for the MHSAA Playoffs for the first time. Then to seven more headed back for the first time in a while: Athens (first berth since 2000), Bridgeport (1999), Flat Rock (1990), Hancock (2006), Royal Oak (2006), Salem (1991) and Vermontville Maple Valley (2005). A total of 21 programs added to totals of more than 25 playoff berths, led by Beal City now with 35, Crystal Falls Forest Park and Farmington Hills Harrison with 33, Mendon with 32, Traverse City St. Francis with 31 and Frankfort with 30. Rockford earned its 23rd straight playoff berth, tying the record set by Felch North Dickinson from 1991-2013, and Menominee earned its 22nd straight to tie Traverse City St. Francis (1990-2011) for third on the list. Of our current 614 football varsities, all but 16 have made the playoffs at least once.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Cedarville will host Rudyard in an 8-player Division 1 game this week although both teams finished with the same playoff point average – Cedarville broke the tie with its 46-28 win over the Bulldogs in Week 1, which is a good thing because their opponents had matching 38-43 records this fall. 

Many ways, no great way to slice it: The map in 11-player Division 2 was among our first tough challenges Sunday. Our most northern District seemed to make sense right away – keeping Traverse City West and Traverse City Central together with Midland and Midland Dow. From there, it’s not a pretty picture. We looked at three ways of splitting up the Detroit-area schools. We have five teams on the Grand Rapids/Muskegon/Kalamazoo side of the Lower Peninsula, but Lowell being eastern-most got sent to a District with three Flint-area schools. The 11-player Division 3 map provided a similar quandary – DeWitt, East Lansing and Haslett are packed nicely just north of Lansing, but an uneven seven schools on the western side of the Lower Peninsula meant DeWitt getting grouped with three closer to Grand Rapids with East Lansing and Haslett heading south to join Parma Western and Tecumseh. Bay City Central is the lone qualifier in this division from the Bay City/Saginaw/Midland area and also had to go somewhere – and in this case it made more sense to send it south along I-75 then across to Grand Rapids.

It’s a highway thing: In both Division 4 and Division 6 of 11-player, we have one Upper Peninsula school joining the rest from downstate. In Calumet’s case in Division 6, there are opponents in the northern Lower Peninsula to slot against, but Escanaba in Division 4 left us again relying on I-75. The trip from Escanaba to Flint Powers Catholic – the southernmost team in that four-team District – seems like a longer haul than sending Escanaba instead southwest to Whitehall. But a trip to Powers is estimated to be an hour shorter than from Escanaba to Whitehall, again because of the main highway.

Use the lake: At least three of our 11-player divisions – 1, 2 and 5 – have a District that rides close to the southeastern region of the Lower Peninsula up from Macomb County into Port Huron. While those thin Districts seem a little odd in shape, they make sense by normal traffic flow up from Lake St. Clair toward the Lake Huron coast. That helps explain why Port Huron Northern is with Roseville, Warren DeLaSalle and Ferndale instead of taking Lowell’s spot with Fenton, Flushing and Flint Carman-Ainsworth.

Worst map ever: At least in my seven years of being a part of the process. I’m speaking of the 11-player map in Division 8, which saw us with six Upper Peninsula schools, but then three Lower Peninsula schools grouped together just below Mackinac Bridge. One of these three had to go with another group, which is how we ended up with Frankfort joining Munising, Newberry and Gaylord St. Mary (Johannesburg-Lewiston and Hillman ended up with AuGres-Sims and Lincoln Alcona.). Then there are the pair of triangles in the southwest Lower Peninsula with Muskegon Catholic Central and Fulton-Middleton a good deal north of their District opponents, but with no other way to group those teams since the other six are all along I-94 or just south. It’s not pretty, but splitting MCC and Fulton up and sending them south was the best of the options we developed.

At the end of the day …

So here’s the fun part. We draw the maps without knowing who is where – and then we take a look at the matchups as they’re being prepared for TV and online.

It’s hard to pick out only a handful to mention at this time, but here’s one guess at a few that will create a buzz this week:

• In Division 1, Holland West Ottawa hosts Grandville after beating the Bulldogs 34-18 in Week 9 to earn an outright Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title; a Grandville win would’ve given championship shares to both and Rockford.

• Also in Division 1, Bloomfield Hills travels to West Bloomfield after beating the Lakers 28-24 in Week 2; West Bloomfield hasn’t lost again.

• In Division 3, Zeeland West and Zeeland East face off again after East downed West 28-8 on Friday to win the O-K Green championship.

• Also in Division 3, DeWitt hosts Grand Rapids Christian after rattling off eight straight wins – the Panthers’ only loss was to Christian 38-30 on opening night.

• Rivals Wyoming Kelloggsville and Godwin Heights meet in Division 4 after Kelloggsville beat Godwin by a point in Week 6 on the way to winning the O-K Silver title. Three Rivers and Vicksburg also will meet for the second straight week, this time in a Division 4 game; Vicksburg beat Three Rivers on Friday to deny the Wildcats a share of the Wolverine B Conference title. Harbor Beach claimed the Greater Thumb Conference East title by downing Ubly 26-14 in the league finale in Week 8, and they’ll meet again this week in Division 8.

• The best rivalry in 8-player last year was Powers North Central versus Crystal Falls Forest Park, and they’ll meet to start this postseason with the reigning champion Jets hitting the road looking to avenge a 66-58 loss to the Trojans in Week 2.

We know every game over the next five weeks will be memorable, at least for those on the field and the communities cheering them on. With our maps drawn, we look forward watching championship roads get blazed – and we’ll be waiting where they end at NMU and Ford Field.  

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 4 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula shows how I-75 served as a guide for putting Escanaba in a District that includes Flint Powers Catholic.

Drive for Detroit: Week 4 in Review

September 21, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

If Week 4 was an indication, there will be a few new leaders of their packs by the end of this football regular season. 

This weekend's highlights included the end of one of the most impressive league winning streaks in the state, a few more headlining upsets and the emergence of a handful of other teams that haven't made the "Drive" in a few seasons. 

Bay & Thumb

Midland 21, Mount Pleasant 14

Five of the last six meetings between these Saginaw Valley League Red rivals have been decided by eight points or fewer, with Midland running its streak to three straight over the Oilers. Both are considered playoff contenders this fall, lining up potentially in Division 2 – and if that happens, it’s a strong possibility they could meet again. The Chemics (4-0) also equaled last season’s win total, while Mount Pleasant fell to 3-1. Click for more from the Midland Daily News.

Also noted:

Sanford Meridian 32, Clare 10 – After falling to Clare (1-3) by only two points a year ago, Meridian (4-0) this time ended the Pioneers’ 33-game Jack Pine Conference winning streak that went back to 2010.

Flint Beecher 26, Goodrich 9 – The reigning champion Bucs (4-0) are in the Genesee Area Conference Red driver’s seat again after downing last season’s league runner-up, Goodrich (2-2).

Flint Powers Catholic 10, Davison 0 – After falling to Flushing on opening night, the Chargers (3-1) have given up seven points total in three games, with Davison (2-2) the second to be held scoreless.

Ubly 36, Marlette 12 – The Bearcats equaled their win totals of each of the last two seasons in moving to 3-1 for the first time since 2011, while beating Marlette (3-1) for the first time since 2012.

Greater Detroit

Warren DeLaSalle 30, Birmingham Brother Rice 6

Reigning Division 2 champion DeLaSalle (3-1) had fallen to Brother Rice by seven points or fewer both of the last two seasons, but got past the Warriors for the first time since 2011 to start the Detroit Catholic League schedule off with a key victory. The Warriors (1-3) had three losses combined from 2012-14, but also opened this fall with three tough out-of-state opponents. Click for more from MLive-Detroit.

Also noted:

Lincoln Park 18, Wyandotte Roosevelt 15 – The Railsplitters (3-1) are for real, this week equaling last season’s win total to tie for their best finish already since 2005, while downing annual Downriver League contender Roosevelt (3-1).

St. Clair Shores South Lake 34, Clinton Township Clintondale 8 – The Cavaliers (4-0) continued their nice comeback from 2-7 a year ago and can now circle Oct. 16 against Madison Heights Madison as the possible decider in the Macomb Area Conference Silver, although Clintondale (3-1) remains in the chase facing Madison the week before.

Dearborn Heights Robichaud 49, Redford Thurston 21 – Playoff regular Thurston (2-2) presented a new league challenge to Robichaud (4-0), but not enough as the Bulldogs moved to 2-0 in the Western Wayne Athletic Conference Blue.

Plymouth 24, Livonia Churchill 16 – The Wildcats (3-1) owed this rival some big payback after last season’s 42-0 loss to the Chargers (2-2) that broke a string of three straight games between the two decided by a touchdown or less.

Mid-Michigan

Portland 28, Lansing Catholic 6

Consider Portland’s comeback complete. Not only the Raiders beat their third 2014 playoff team already this fall, and not only did they equal last season’s win total after just four games. But Portland (4-0) also took a major step ahead in the Capital Area Activities Conference White, downing the reigning Division 5 runner-up and holding the usually high-powered Cougars (3-1) to their fewest points since 2009. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Also noted:

Brighton 35, Grand Blanc 12 – The Bulldogs (4-0) also equaled their win total from last season, beating Grand Blanc (3-1) during the regular season for the first time in their seven recent meetings as part of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association.

St. Johns 34, Haslett 32 – The Redwings (3-1) just keep looking more impressive and held off a late charge by Haslett (3-1) to become DeWitt’s biggest obstacle in the CAAC Red.

Lake Odessa Lakewood 61, Stockbridge 42 – There were few defensive stops as Lakewood (4-0) not only equaled its 2014 win total but pulled into lead position ahead of the Panthers (3-1) in the Greater Lansing Activities Conference.

Jackson 35, Lansing Sexton 34 – The Vikings (3-1) bounced back from last week’s seven-point loss by beating Sexton (0-4) for the first time since 2006; the Big Reds’ defeats this season are by a combined 24 points.  

Northern Lower Peninsula

Alpena 21, Cadillac 18

Alpena (2-2) has had its share of football struggles over the last decade, but is showing signs of a team on the rise – including this first win over Cadillac since 2007. The Wildcats opened with two losses by 14 and then nine points, respectively, but are 2-0 in the Big North Conference for the first time since their last playoff season of 2004. Cadillac (0-4) owns two three-point losses this season, contributing to its toughest start since 2003 – but could make a run to the finish and hope to reach the postseason at 5-4. Click for more from the Alpena News.

Also noted:

Boyne City 55, Kingsley 28 – The Ramblers (4-0) gave up their most points this season but also scored their most since Week 9 of 2014 against a Kingsley team (2-2) that hadn’t given up more than 14.

Grayling 48, Charlevoix 36 – The Vikings (3-1) pulled within a win of matching last season’s success by extending their streak over the Red Rayders (2-2) to seven straight.

Hillman 22, Rogers City 6 – While never in the same division of the North Star League, this two have played each other for 12 consecutive years; the Tigers (3-1) made it five in a row over Rogers City (2-2), which opened the series with seven straight wins.

Traverse City Central 28, Whitehall 21 – The Trojans (4-0) continued their surge, following up a close win over rival West last week with an impressive victory over previously-undefeated Whitehall (3-1). 

Southeast & Border

Brooklyn Columbia Central 21, Hudson 0

The Golden Eagles (4-0) have made a 180-degree turn from last season’s 0-6 start, which included a 43-7 loss to Hudson. Columbia Central won a combined seven games over the last three seasons but looks like the favorite in the Lenawee County Athletic Association after downing the reigning champion Tigers (2-2) and also 2014 runner-up Hillsdale in Week 3. Click for more from the Brooklyn Exponent.

Also noted:

Manchester 23, Grass Lake 13 – The Dutchmen (3-1) have taken control of this Cascades Conference rivalry with three straight wins over the Warriors (2-2).

Petersburg-Summerfield 38, Ottawa Lake-Whiteford 18 – The Bulldogs (3-1) succeeded in bouncing back quickly after losing last week to Morenci, and now will root for Whiteford (3-1) to beat Morenci in Week 7.

Monroe 41, Ann Arbor Skyline 6 – The Southeastern Conference Red is loaded this fall, making this a key win for the Trojans (3-1) over improved Skyline (2-2).

Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 27, New Boston Huron 7 – The Falcons (4-0) could be headed for a second straight Huron League title after beating New Boston Huron (2-2), last season’s runner-up.

Southwest Corridor

Berrien Springs 7, Cassopolis 0

This matchup of former Lakeland Conference rivals might turn out to be a meeting between eventual Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference champions. Berrien Springs scored near the end of the first quarter, and hung on through a weather delay to hand Cassopolis (3-1) its first loss. The Shamrocks (4-0) are one of four teams in the BCS White, while the Rangers are one of four in the BCS Red and frontrunners in that league thanks to a Week 2 win over Mendon. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Also noted:

Stevensville Lakeshore 28, St. Joseph 14 – Lakeshore (3-1) remains in the Southwest Michigan Athletic Conference West race thanks to this win, necessary after a one-point loss to Portage Central in Week 3; St. Joseph (3-1) gets Portage Central in Week 9.  

Hartford 32, Gobles 29 – The Indians (1-3) struggled at the start this season, but handed Gobles (3-1) its first loss of the fall.

Edwardsburg 26, Paw Paw 6 – The new-look Wolverine B Conference is filled with contenders, but Edwardsburg (4-0) remains at the top after downing playoff regular Paw Paw (2-2).

Battle Creek Lakeview 48, Mattawan 14 – After two straight losses and with two tough league crossovers ahead, the Spartans (2-2) needed a stand against a Mattawan team (2-2) in a similar spot.

Upper Peninsula

Newberry 31, Munising 14

It's early, of course. But at 3-1 and with a win over Munising, Newberry could be setting up for its best season in more than a decade. The Indians will have a tough time winning the Mid-Eastern Conference after losing to Bark River-Harris in Week 3, but are two wins off last season’s total and haven’t won six games since 2005. The Mustangs (3-1), last season’s Division 8 runners-up, had won 17 straight regular-season games and can create an interesting scenario at the top of the league standings when they face Bark River-Harris in Week 7.

Also noted:

Marquette 28, Escanaba 21 – The Redmen (1-3) loaded their nonleague slate and got off to a tough start, but are in first in the Great Northern Upper Peninsula Conference with Escanaba (2-2) dropping its second straight.

Crystal Falls Forest Park 28, Felch North Dickinson 20 – The Trojans (2-2) have had three games decided by eight points or fewer, and this was the first in their favor; it also dropped the Nordics to 1-3.

Negaunee 28, Iron Mountain 14 – Negaunee (4-0) avenged a three-point loss to the Mountaineers (2-2) from last season to move to 2-0 in the Mid-Peninsula Conference.

Ishpeming 46, Ishpeming Westwood 6 – The Hematites (4-0) continue to own this rivalry with 20 straight wins over the Patriots (2-2). 

West Michigan

Zeeland West 38, Comstock Park 28

This was one of the most challenging wins of the Dux’ 20-game regular-season winning streak, and certainly a different story than last season’s 57-7 win over Comstock Park. The Panthers (3-1) jumped out to a two-touchdown lead before the punishing running game and defense caught stride for West (4-0). Both are favorites in their divisions of the Ottawa-Kent Conference, with play beginning this week. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted:

Muskegon Mona Shores 30, Caledonia 7 – The offense gets the praise, but the defense definitely was most impressive in this one for the Sailors (4-0), who have given up only 31 points this season; Caledonia (2-2) hadn’t scored in single digits since its last meeting with Mona Shores a year ago.  

Muskegon 56, East Grand Rapids 28 – The Big Reds (3-1) got four touchdowns from quarterback Kalil Pimpleton after the teams were tied 21-21, and the Pioneers (3-1) were unable to keep pace.  

Grand Rapids Christian 24, Zeeland East 20 – While nonleague, this was key for the Eagles (3-1) with the Chix (3-1) one of a number of tough teams dotting the final two thirds of the schedule.

Grand Rapids West Catholic 45, Hudsonville Unity Christian 28 – Handing the Crusaders (3-1) their first loss should provide a nice confidence boost for a West Catholic team (2-2) that had won 23 straight games before dropping two of three to start this fall. 

8-Player

Cedarville 18, Onaway 12

Few have given Cedarville (3-1) a regular-season challenge during the 8-player era, but Onaway (2-2) didn’t make the move to 8-player until this season – and was a solid 4-5 a year ago playing 11-player in the Ski Valley Conference. Onaway’s other loss this season was to Rapid River – which gave Cedarville its only defeat.

Also noted:

Posen 42, Bellaire 6 – The Vikings (4-0) are looking like contenders in Bridge Alliance Conference after arguably their most impressive win since also beating Bellaire (2-2) in 2013.

Burton Madison 38, Akron-Fairgrove 16 – Madison (2-1), in only its eighth game every of 8-player, handed a first loss this season to the much more experienced Vikings (3-1).

PHOTO: Montrose, on defense, stopped Durand 69-0 on Friday to bounce back from two straight losses and improve to 2-2.