Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2023 Playoff Week 1 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 26, 2023
Part of the enchantment of high school sports is the relatively small window athletes receive to play them. Most get four seasons – and most football players just two on the varsity team under the frequently and fondly-referenced “Friday night lights.”
That enchantment makes it impossible to undersell the anticipation as another MHSAA Football Playoffs – the 49th – begin tonight.
It will be the first playoffs for thousands of players and the start of the last playoffs for thousands more as 11-Player District Semifinals and 8-Player Regional Semifinals kick off with 128 games, and 16 more Saturday.
The mini heat wave finishing its run through Michigan is another reason to check out a first-round game in person. But if you’re not heading out, you still can watch nearly all of them – as of Thursday evening, 122 of this weekend’s 144 playoff games will be broadcast live on MHSAA.tv, viewable with subscription. Keep up with scores as well and Round 2 matchups as they’re determined on the Football Playoff Scoreboard.
Here are just a handful of the intriguing matchups as this postseason gets underway. Games are Friday unless noted.
11-Player Division 1
Rochester Adams (6-3) at West Bloomfield (7-2) - WATCH
These two rank among the most successful playoff teams in the state over the last three seasons, with West Bloomfield a combined 8-2 in the postseason with a Division 1 championship in 2020, and Adams a combined 7-2 (not counting a COVID-related forfeit in 2020) with a runner-up finish in 2021 after the Highlanders defeated the Lakers 14-13 in a Regional Final during that run. This fall West Bloomfield was third and Adams fourth in the Oakland Activities Association Red, thanks in part to the Lakers' 36-32 win in their Week 5 meeting. West Bloomfield also handed Southfield Arts & Technology its only defeat, 31-20 in Week 8.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Detroit Catholic Central (7-2) at Novi (7-2) - WATCH, St. Clair Shores Lakeview (7-2) at Macomb Dakota (7-2) - WATCH, Detroit Cass Tech (6-3) at Westland John Glenn (7-2) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 2
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (7-2) at Muskegon Mona Shores (6-3) - WATCH
This is also a rematch, as Mona Shores opened the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green schedule with a 28-10 win over Reeths-Puffer – and in fact, the Rockets are seeking their first win over Shores since 2016. But this also has been Reeths-Puffer’s winningest season since 2013, and they enter this opener coming off impressive back-to-back victories over Zeeland East 35-21 and Zeeland West 14-12, the latter avenging a 2022 defeat. Shores also defeated West, 14-6 two weeks ago, but was edged by East 21-20 in the regular-season finale.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Portage Northern (8-1) at Caledonia (7-2) - WATCH, Birmingham Groves (6-3) at Birmingham Seaholm (8-1) - WATCH, Dexter (6-3) at Allen Park (8-1) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 3
Zeeland East (6-3) at Zeeland West (6-3) - WATCH
Zeeland West has won its last six meetings with its neighbor, including once in the playoffs, since East swept a pair in 2018. The Dux claimed this season’s first matchup 36-13. But that shouldn’t be an indication a repeat is a sure thing. As noted above, East is coming off a one-point win over Mona Shores – avenging a 42-7 loss from a year ago and breaking a two-game losing streak to the Sailors since they rejoined the same league in 2020. West meanwhile has lost three straight games, but those beg for context as well – those defeats came to Muskegon High, Mona Shores and Reeths-Puffer, and all by eight points or fewer. Muskegon is the only team to score more than 14 points on the Dux, and the Big Reds put up just 22 in their six-point Week 7 win.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Battle Creek Harper Creek (6-3) at Parma Western (8-1), Fenton (6-3) at DeWitt (6-2) - WATCH, Detroit Martin Luther King (4-5) at Port Huron (7-2) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 4
Lansing Sexton (8-1) at Portland (9-0)
This is a rematch of the Week 8 decider for the Capital Area Activities Conference White title, and Portland’s 41-0 win over then-undefeated Sexton further emphasized the mightiness of the Raiders’ defense this year – they’ve given up just 47 points and also shut out Berrien Springs last week. Portland is up to No. 3 in the final coaches poll and enters having won District titles in Division 5 the last two seasons (and its Regional two years ago) and with a combined 29-5 record going back to the start of 2021. But Sexton, enjoying its best season since 2017, is ranked No. 10 and certainly has the ability to flip things if it can build up some success on offense and keep Portland’s off the field.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Big Rapids (8-1) at Spring Lake (7-2), Wayland (6-3) at Grand Rapids South Christian (6-3) - WATCH, Croswell-Lexington (7-2) at Harper Woods (6-3).
11-Player Division 5
Gladwin (7-2) at Ogemaw Heights (8-1) - WATCH
The only loss of Ogemaw Heights’ most successful regular season since 2009 came in the opener on the road at reigning Division 5 champion Gladwin, 42-28. The Falcons get the Flying Gs at home this time, and have given up just under 10 points per game on average since that defeat. Ogemaw Heights has downed five playoff teams over those eight games including previously-undefeated Almont 21-7 last week. About 40 miles southeast, Gladwin impressively ran its Jack Pine Conference winning streak to 19 games and three straight championships, and those defeats came last week to Frankenmuth and Week 7 to Pontiac Notre Dame Prep – which are 16-1 between them.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Berrien Springs (5-3) at South Haven (6-3) - WATCH, Flint Hamady (8-0) at Corunna (9-0) - WATCH, Detroit Denby (8-1) at Detroit Southeastern (6-3).
11-Player Division 6
Detroit Old Redford (8-1) at Detroit Edison (6-3), Saturday
Old Redford has built its most successful regular season, and the climb has been stunning. The Ravens didn’t play a game in 2020 or 2021, then went 4-5 last year before doubling their victories this fall – with their only loss in the season opener to playoff team Dearborn Heights Robichaud. Old Redford won the Charter School Conference Silver but should get one of its toughest challenges in Edison, which spent more than a month in the coaches poll top 10 and reached No. 6 on the list on the way to earning six wins for the third time in four seasons and after going just 2-7 a year ago. Edison tied for second in the Charter School Conference Gold behind undefeated Warren Michigan Collegiate.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kent City (7-2) 39.000 at Hart (8-1) - WATCH, Lake City (6-3) at Manistee (7-2) - WATCH, Buchanan (6-3) at Kalamazoo United (5-4).
11-Player Division 7
Traverse City St. Francis (4-4) at Charlevoix (8-1) - WATCH
This is another fascinating rematch. These two didn’t play in the same league this fall, but they did open against each other with St. Francis winning 41-40 while filling in almost an entirely new starting lineup. The Gladiators were coming off finishing Division 7 runner-up a year ago and had to navigate six more eventual playoff qualifiers – but reached the postseason again, and now a large group of new contributors at the start of the year have a season of experience against strong competition. Charlevoix bounced back and didn’t lose again – or let anyone closer than 13 points on the way to winning a league title and reaching eight wins for the fourth-straight season.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Schoolcraft (7-2) at Lawton (8-1) - WATCH, Sandusky (6-3) at Cass City (7-2) - WATCH, Manchester (7-2) at Napoleon (8-1).
11-Player Division 8
Fowler (8-1) at Ithaca (9-0) - WATCH
The Division 8 bracket is loaded. Six teams are undefeated and five more have lost only once, and this game matches one from each group. Ithaca is playing in Division 8 for the first time and brings a streak of 15 straight league championships, Division 7 District titles two of the last three seasons and a current team that is outscoring its opponents on average 50-5 with shutouts in five of its last six games. But Fowler has seen this caliber of competition. The Eagles’ lone loss was 27-14 to Division 7 contender Pewamo-Westphalia in Week 6, and the Pirates are the only team to score on Fowler since Sept. 1. The Eagles have given up only 53 points this season with six shutouts, and five of those shutouts were of playoff teams including Frankfort, Laingsburg and McBain since the P-W loss.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hudson (7-2) at Addison (9-0) - WATCH, Frankfort (7-2) at Beal City (8-1) - WATCH, Mount Clemens (5-4) at Riverview Gabriel Richard (5-4) - WATCH.
8-Player Division 1
Mendon (7-2) at Gobles (7-2) - WATCH
Gobles made the switch to 8-player in 2021 and has strung together two straight seven-win seasons, with this fall’s coming against a schedule featuring five teams with winning records. Mendon wasn’t on this year’s slate after a league change, but they’ll meet again after the Hornets won their matchup a year ago 36-6. Gobles has scored 53 points in all of its wins and has its 2022 points total by more than 100. Mendon, last season’s Division 2 runner-up, remains similarly able to match points with most and lost only to still-undefeated Climax-Scotts and Adrian Lenawee Christian.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Alcona (8-1) at Indian River Inland Lakes (8-1) - WATCH, Newberry (7-2) at Norway (7-2) - WATCH. SATURDAY Carson City-Crystal (8-1) at Brown City (9-0) - WATCH.
8-Player Division 2
Crystal Falls Forest Park (7-2) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (6-3), Saturday - WATCH
For more than a decade, this was a notable regular-season finale in the 11-player Great Western Conference, with these two meeting again in the playoffs six times between 2004-15. Forest Park switched to 8-player in 2016, Lake Linden-Hubbell in 2020, and this is the third season in a row they’ll meet in the regular season and playoffs. Forest Park won the Week 6 matchup this fall 36-28, but also won last year’s regular-season matchup 22-14 before the Lakes flipped things in the Regional Semifinal 44-12.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Bay City All Saints (7-2) at Marion (8-0) - WATCH. SATURDAY Au Gres-Sims (7-2) at Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (8-1) - WATCH, Powers North Central (7-2) at Posen (8-0).
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PHOTO DeWitt's Elliott Larner (3) unloads a pass during a Week 9 win over Lansing Waverly. (Photo by TCP-Photography.)