Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2023 Week 7 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 5, 2023
It’s league title time as we dive into the final third of the 2023 football regular season.
Of 45 matchups highlighted below, nearly two-thirds could lead to either a conference championship being celebrated this weekend or impact a title race to be won over the next two.
Thursday’s rain is expected to continue in some parts of our state, but if you don’t attend in person most of the games below will be viewable on MHSAA.tv – click the “Watch” links to go directly to those broadcasts. Games below are Friday unless noted, and rankings are by the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association.
Bay & Thumb
Freeland (6-0) at Frankenmuth (5-1) - WATCH
For the third-straight season, the winner of this game will earn a league championship – this time, a share of the Tri-Valley Conference Red, as both teams still will have a league game to play Week 8 as well. The Eagles did see their 24-game regular-season winning streak end in their opener against Goodrich in August, but they haven’t lost a league game since 2014 – and have strung together four straight wins over Freeland, including 21-0 a year ago. After edging Clare 29-26 in their opener, the Falcons have dazzled offensively this fall, surpassing 50 points in all five of their league games.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (4-2) at Cass City (5-1) - WATCH, Durand (3-3) at Chesaning (5-1) - WATCH, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (5-0) at Gladwin (6-0), Ithaca (6-0) at Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (5-1).
Greater Detroit
Walled Lake Western (6-0) at Milford (5-1) - WATCH
Walled Lake Western is attempting to finish what would be a second-straight perfect run through the Lakes Valley Conference. The Warriors have won 17 straight league games and have two left this fall – with their most recent league loss to Milford in 2021. Waterford Mott got within 15 of Western in this year’s season opener, but no one else has been within 30 points. Milford has had closer results – a 26-23 loss to Dearborn Divine Child and three wins by eight or fewer points. But the defense has been stunning – giving up just 20 points over five league games – and it will provide an intriguing matchup with a Warriors offense averaging 50 ppg.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Lake Orion (6-0) at Clarkston (4-2) - WATCH, Romeo (3-3) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (4-2) - WATCH, Grosse Pointe South (5-1) at St. Clair Shores Lakeview (5-1) - WATCH, Macomb Dakota (5-1) at Utica Eisenhower (5-1) - WATCH.
Mid-Michigan
Charlotte (5-1) at Portland (6-0)
The Raiders could be closing in on a seventh Capital Area Activities Conference White title over the last eight seasons – but the next two weeks should be their most challenging of this run. The circled matchup is next week with also-undefeated Lansing Sexton. But to reach that winner-take-all, Portland must be careful with Charlotte. The Orioles have continued their resurgence into a third-straight season, and their only regular-season loss a year ago was 40-13 to the Raiders. They did fall to Sexton 28-0 three weeks ago, but can mash up this league race if they can slow a Portland team that’s won all of its games by at least four touchdowns this fall.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Williamston (4-2) at Haslett (4-2), St. Johns (3-3) at Mason (6-0), New Lothrop (5-1) at Ovid-Elsie (3-3), Bath (3-3) at Saranac (4-2)
Northern Lower Peninsula
Kingsley (5-1) at Ogemaw Heights (5-1) - WATCH
The Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders division has been mostly a two-team race the last five seasons between Kingsley and Traverse City St. Francis. But Ogemaw Heights began pushing into contention last year and tonight will play Kingsley for an outright league title. The Falcons have given up only 59 points over their last five games after a 42-28 loss to still-undefeated Gladwin in Week 1. They’ve also gone 0-5 against Kingsley since joining the NMFL, but got within 30-20 a year ago. Kingsley’s lone loss this season also was to a still-undefeated opponent, Gaylord, and that was by just three points.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Fowler (5-1) at Frankfort (6-0), Kalkaska (3-3) at Grayling (3-3) - WATCH, Oscoda (3-3) at Benzie Central (3-3) - WATCH. SATURDAY Jackson Lumen Christi (6-0) at Traverse City St. Francis (3-3) - WATCH.
Southeast & Border
Napoleon (6-0) at Michigan Center (5-1) - WATCH
Napoleon has won 16 straight regular-season games and can earn a share of the Cascades Conference East title tonight after winning the formerly one-division league last season on the way to the Division 7 Semifinals. The Pirates are 18-1 since missing the 2021 playoffs despite finishing 6-3. Michigan Center is quite a story as well. The Cardinals finished 4-5 a year ago and lost four Cascades games, but all by seven points or fewer – including by only two, 29-27, to the Pirates. Michigan Center fell to Jackson Lumen Christi to start this fall, but has not lost since and last week avenged a 2022 defeat to Grass Lake. The Cardinals too would earn a share of the East title with a win in this one.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Jackson (4-2) at Chelsea (5-1) - WATCH, Union City (5-1) at Petersburg Summerfield (4-2) - WATCH, Grass Lake (4-2) at Manchester (5-1) - WATCH, Hastings (4-2) at Parma Western (6-0).
Southwest Corridor
Portage Northern (6-0) at Portage Central (5-1) - WATCH
This annual rivalry game will mean as much as ever with these two entering both undefeated in Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference play at this late of a date for the first time in decades. The lone loss this season between them was Central’s to Division 3 No. 3 Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central in Week 2, and the Mustangs do own a win over Division 2 No. 10 East Lansing. Northern has won four of the last five of these matchups, however, including 25-22 a year ago.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Battle Creek Pennfield (3-3) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (4-2), Schoolcraft (5-1) at Lawton (5-1) - WATCH, Cassopolis (3-3) at White Pigeon (6-0) - WATCH. SATURDAY Kalamazoo United (4-2) at Constantine (5-1).
Upper Peninsula
Negaunee (5-1) at Menominee (6-0)
Menominee passed its first major Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper test last week, getting by Gladstone 44-26. Next up is the reigning champion, and the Miners’ lone defeat this fall was to Gladstone 42-14 in Week 2. Although the Maroons were still playing in the Great Northern Conference last season, these two did face off, with Negaunee a 44-0 Division 6 District Final winner on the way to Ford Field. The Miners’ defense has strengthened substantially since that Gladstone loss at the start of September – they’ve allowed just 35 points over their last four games – but the challenge will be on as Menominee is averaging 50 points per game in league play and had given up just six total before last week.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Petoskey (4-2) at Marquette (3-2) - WATCH, Houghton (2-4) at Gladstone (4-2) - WATCH. SATURDAY Lakeview (2-4) at Manistique (3-3) - WATCH, Bark River-Harris (3-3) at West Iron County (1-4) - WATCH.
West Michigan
Howard City Tri County (6-0) at Big Rapids (5-1) - WATCH
While the Ottawa-Kent Conference divisions are still sorting themselves out a bit more with some major matchups this weekend (see below), the Central State Activities Association Gold will be decided at least in part tonight with these two undefeated in league play and this Big Rapids’ league finale. This matchup helped decide the Gold title last year as well; Big Rapids’ 27-26 win resulted in a three-way shared championship between these two and Reed City. This meeting could be close again and similarly low-scoring – Big Rapids is giving up 12 per game in league play, and Tri County is allowing just less than 13.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids Catholic Central (5-1) at Ada Forest Hills Eastern (5-1) - WATCH, Grand Rapids West Catholic (6-0) at Allendale (5-1), Grandville (5-1) at Caledonia (5-1), Muskegon (4-2) at Zeeland West (6-0) - WATCH.
8-Player
Climax-Scotts (6-0) at Mendon (5-1) - WATCH
Mendon has had little time to rebound from last week’s 73-20 loss to Adrian Lenawee Christian, with the Southern Central Athletic Association West title to be decided at least in part tonight as the winner of this matchup locks up a share of the league title. Climax-Scotts is seeking its first conference championship in 8-player and has finished a runner-up twice over four seasons. This will also be the first time these two are facing off in league play in this format, although the Hornets won a Division 2 playoff matchup 44-18 last October.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Alcona (5-1) at Au Gres-Sims (6-0) - WATCH, Gobles (5-1) at Bridgman (6-0), Grandville Calvin Christian (4-2) at Marcellus (5-1) - WATCH, Pickford (6-0) at Norway (5-1) - WATCH.
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PHOTO Ada Forest Hills Eastern, on defense, takes on Grand Rapids Catholic Central this week coming off a 28-14 win over Wayland. (Photo by Michigan Sports Photo.)