Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2023 Week 3 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 7, 2023
After two weeks of high anticipation to begin this football season, we’ve moved into the grind as several leagues begin play this weekend and contenders hope to take the first steps toward potentially celebrating a local championship next month.
It’s also not too late to bounce back from a tough start. Of 288 Michigan varsity teams that opened with losses during Week 1, 129 rebounded to win in Week 2. We’ll likely see many more find their footing over the next two days.
The majority of games across the state this weekend will be broadcast on MHSAA.tv and viewable with subscription, with results updated as those games conclude on the MHSAA Scores page.
Here’s a look at some of the matchups that may end up mattering most as this season rumbles on:
Bay & Thumb
Goodrich (2-0) at Lake Fenton (2-0)
With impressive wins over Frankenmuth and Linden over the last two weeks, Goodrich is off to an even more notable start than last season when it finished Division 4 runner-up. This one kicks off Flint Metro League Stars play with a rematch of the Martians’ only close league game from a year ago – they edged Lake Fenton 14-7 to lock up the outright title. The Blue Devils have outscored their first two opponents this season by a combined 93-6 as they look to rebound from last year’s 3-6 finish.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Croswell-Lexington (2-0) at Armada (1-1), Freeland (2-0) at Essexville Garber (2-0), Saginaw Heritage (2-0) at Grand Blanc (1-1), Bad Axe (1-1) at Harbor Beach (2-0).
Greater Detroit
Detroit Pershing (2-0) at Detroit Denby (2-0)
With Cass Tech, Martin Luther King and lately Central getting most of the pub, Denby’s success over the last decade often isn’t noted enough; the Tars have nine winning seasons and eight playoff appearances over the last 10 years. They’ve also shut out their first two opponents this fall as they begin Detroit Public School League Gold play. Pershing, meanwhile, is 2-0 for the first time since 2012 and last week defeated Madison Heights Bishop Foley to avenge a 41-point loss in 2022.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Rochester Adams (2-0) at Clarkston (0-2), New Lothrop (1-1) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (1-1), Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (1-1) at Utica Eisenhower (2-0). SATURDAY Detroit Country Day (1-1) at Warren Michigan Collegiate (2-0).
Mid-Michigan
Pewamo-Westphalia (1-1) at Laingsburg (2-0)
The Wolfpack’s drive this season certainly must be substantial after just missing the playoffs last year despite a 6-3 record. Paced by senior Jack Borgman, Laingsburg opened by avenging last season’s loss to Durand and will now seek to defeat the Pirates for the first time since 2009 after missing by just seven points a year ago. P-W bounced back from a three-point loss to North Muskegon in its opener to shut out Bath last week.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Northville (2-0) at Brighton (1-1), Lansing Catholic (1-1) at Charlotte (2-0), Grand Ledge (2-0) at Holt (1-1), Olivet (0-2) at Lansing Sexton (2-0).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Marquette (1-1) at Gaylord (2-0), Saturday
League realignments over the last few years have led to some different trips for teams in the northern half of the Lower Peninsula – see Traverse City Central welcoming Davison in the Saginaw Valley League this weekend and this Marquette drive along with Sault Ste. Marie’s to Cadillac in the newest version of the Big North Conference. Gaylord is 2-0 for the second-straight season, but last year saw that momentum paused with a 17-14 Week 3 loss to Marquette. Marquette is coming off a 49-0 win over Alpena after falling to the Wildcats by two a year ago.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Frankfort (2-0) at Benzie Central (1-1), Sault Ste. Marie (2-0) at Cadillac (1-1), Boyne City (2-0) at Charlevoix (1-1), Davison (2-0) at Traverse City Central (1-1).
Southeast & Border
Carleton Airport (2-0) at Flat Rock (2-0)
The Huron League and Carleton Airport headlines this section of the state for the second week in a row, this time after the Jets avenged their 2022 loss to league champion Riverview with a 48-27 win. Flat Rock gave Airport a mighty challenge last season as well, with the Jets prevailing only 21-19 but the Rams going on to finish 8-4 – their winningest since 1976. Flat Rock is off to another solid start with victories over Dundee and Grosse Ile, both playoff teams as well in 2022.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Leslie (2-0) at Addison (2-0), Temperance Bedford (1-1) at Dexter (0-2), Hillsdale (1-1) at Hudson (2-0), Clinton (1-1) at Ida (1-1).
Southwest Corridor
Kalamazoo Central (1-0) at St. Joseph (1-1)
The Maroon Giants celebrated their first win in two seasons last week, downing 2022 playoff qualifier Sturgis 47-34 to break an 11-game losing streak. St. Joseph won this matchup big a year ago and has taken 12 straight since Central’s most recent victory in the series in 2004. However, the Bears are seeking to gain momentum to start September; they were shut out by Niles in their opener and didn’t get to play last week after receiving a forfeit win from Detroit Henry Ford.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY White Pigeon (2-0) at Decatur (1-1), Constantine (1-1) at Lawton (2-0), Jackson Lumen Christi (2-0) at Richland Gull Lake (2-0), SATURDAY Kalamazoo United (2-0) at Schoolcraft (2-0).
Upper Peninsula
Gladstone (2-0) at Kingsford (2-0)
Gladstone has opened with a pair of wins over Marquette and Negaunee that puts the Braves back in the discussion for best in the Upper Peninsula. But this week they face another challenger – one that’s also familiar but under changed circumstances. Gladstone and Kingsford were past Great Northern Conference football foes who both moved to the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper this fall, and the Flivvers actually had won 23 straight in this series before Gladstone’s 34-20 victory last season. Kingsford has yet to give up a point.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Houghton (0-2) at Hancock (1-1), Iron Mountain (2-0) at Ishpeming (1-1), Calumet (1-1) at Negaunee (1-1), Ishpeming Westwood (0-2) at Menominee (2-0).
West Michigan
Lowell (2-0) at East Grand Rapids (2-0)
For most of the 2000s, this was one of the spotlight games every season not only in the Grand Rapids area, but often statewide. The buzz has cooled some the last few years but could be building again. Lowell posted its first winning season last fall since 2017. East Grand Rapids is seeking its first since 2020 and last week downed reigning Division 4 champion Grand Rapids South Christian 23-21. The Pioneers edged the Red Arrows 15-14 a year ago.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids West Catholic (2-0) at Coopersville (2-0), Manistee (2-0) at Muskegon Oakridge (1-1), Wayland (2-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (1-1), Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (2-0) at Muskegon Mona Shores (1-1).
8-Player
Bridgman (2-0) at Martin (2-0)
This is a rematch of one of the most memorable 8-player games from last season, as Bridgman’s 35-34 win in Week 9 finished off its second-straight perfect season. The Bees’ enrollment is too high for the team to qualify for the 8-player playoffs, however, and Martin went on to finish 11-2 and an overpowering Division 1 champion after winning all of its playoff games by at least 34 points. This season has started similarly as the Clippers have outscored their first two opponents by a combined 117-6 and Bridgman has put up 90 points over its first two games. This meeting takes on extra meaning as well as a switch put these two in the same division of the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League this fall.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY St. Ignace (2-0) at Alcona (2-0), Kingston (2-0) at Brown City (2-0), Newberry (2-0) at Rudyard (2-0). SATURDAY Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (2-0) at Portland St. Patrick (2-0).
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PHOTO Harper Woods pulled away from Rochester Hills Stoney Creek 34-21 in Week 1. (Photo by Olivia B. Photography.)