Breslin Bound: Girls Quarterfinal Preview
March 13, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The final week of the 2016-17 girls basketball season begins tonight with all four of last year's champions still alive for titles this winter, but with a twist.
Reigning Class C winner Ypsilanti Arbor Prep is now in Class B, but is undefeated, as is reigning Class D champ Pittsford. Warren Cousino in Class A and Marshall in Class B also are only three more wins from celebrating again – but challengers abound.
Our final girls basketball Breslin Bound report – powered by MI Student Aid – takes a glance at all 16 Quarterfinals, which are all at 7 p.m. tonight unless noted. All Quarterfinals will be broadcast and viewable with subscription on MHSAA.tv. And come back Wednesday night for a more in-depth look at our 16 finalists as they head into this weekend – and make their long-awaited arrivals at the Breslin Center.
Class A
Farmington Hills Mercy (22-3) vs. Warren Cousino (23-2) at Southfield Arts & Technology
Reigning champion Cousino has won 18 straight and is led again by last season’s Finals hero, senior guard and Miss Basketball Award finalist Kierra Fletcher (22.7 points, 13 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 5.2 steals and 2.1 blocks per game). Mercy, the Detroit Catholic League A-B champion, has dominated with balanced contributions from a trio of guards, seniors Chloe Godbold (10.9 ppg) and Jackie Bauer (9.0 ppg) and junior Jenna Schluter (7.5 ppg, 4.5 apg.)
Macomb Dakota (19-6) vs. Flushing (21-3) at Davison
Dakota is playing in its first Quarterfinal and Flushing its first since 2009. The Cougars surprised expected contender Port Huron Northern on the way to winning its first District since 2013. The Raiders have eclipsed 20 wins for the second time in three seasons led by senior guard Lauren Newman (10.9 ppg) and junior guard Shelby Morrow (11.3 ppg).
Kalamazoo Central (20-3) vs. East Kentwood (24-1) at Lansing Eastern
The Maroon Giants also are playing in their first Quarterfinal and have won 19 of their last 20 games – the latest over 21-win East Lansing in the Regional Final. East Kentwood is 10 wins better than a year ago with its only loss Dec. 2 to Class B quarterfinalist Grand Rapids Catholic Central. Junior center Lazurea Saunders leads four players averaging double figures scoring at 14 ppg.
Ann Arbor Huron (20-5) at Southfield Arts & Technology (21-4), 5:30 p.m.
Southfield Arts & Technology pulled off one of the stunning wins of the postseason, downing arguably the Class A favorite Detroit Martin Luther King 55-51 in the Regional Final. But the Warriors have been considered serious contenders as well, led by Miss Basketball candidate Deja Church (20.1 ppg, 8.5 rpg). Huron has won 11 straight with a victory over Class B power Detroit Country Day and had earlier wins over Dakota and Class B quarterfinalist Detroit Mumford.
Class B
Detroit Mumford (18-7) vs. Detroit Country Day (23-1) at Marysville
Country Day has won 19 straight Regional titles and made the Semifinals the last two seasons, winning Class B in 2015. Miss Basketball finalist Destiny Pitts averages 22.7 points and has made 71 3-pointers this winter, while junior Kaela Webb averages 14.6 ppg. Mumford is making a second straight Quarterfinal appearance after also facing Country Day in this round last season. The Mustangs have won 10 of their last 12 games and all during the postseason by 20 or more points.
Marshall (22-2) vs. Grand Rapids Catholic Central (24-1) at Otsego
Reigning Class B champion Marshall has won 11 straight since falling to GRCC 42-34 on Jan. 28. Four starters from last season’s Redhawks team are trying to lead them back to Breslin in this rematch of last season’s Quarterfinal. GRCC’s only loss came on opening night to Class A Muskegon Mona Shores, and the Cougars are 70-7 over the last three seasons going into tonight as they pursue their first Semifinal since 2012.
Williamston (23-1) vs. Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (25-0) at Brighton
Arbor Prep moved into Class B this season after winning Class C in 2016 and has continued to win with stifling defense, holding opponents to under 30 points 11 times this winter. Senior Adrienne Anderson leads three guards scoring in double figures, averaging 13.7 ppg, and Ro'zhane Wells (10.6 ppg) also started last season. Williamston owns wins over Marshall and East Lansing with a loss only to Port Huron Northern. The Hornets boast only two seniors, making them scary opponents both this week and next season.
Freeland (25-0) vs. Cadillac (19-5) at Big Rapids, 6 p.m.
The Falcons are back in the Quarterfinals for the first time since 2012 after winning their sixth straight District title as well. Senior forward Jenna Gregory leads a balanced lineup scoring 10 points per game. Cadillac is coming off its first Regional title in girls basketball and has upped its win total the last two seasons. Senior 6-foot center Kylie Christensen has been a force with 18.6 points and 11.4 rebounds per game.
Class C
Blissfield (23-2) vs. Detroit Edison PSA (18-5) at Ypsilanti Community, 6:30 p.m.
Blissfield has its third 20-win season and second Quarterfinal berth over the last four years, with its only losses this winter to Class B Bay City John Glenn and Class A Utica Ford. Senior guard Kelsey Wyman (22.9 ppg, 7.1 apg) leads a team trying to make the Semifinals for the first time since 1973. DEPSA loaded its schedule and has lost only to Class A and B teams, with impressive wins over Mumford and Flint Hamady highlighting the slate. There are no seniors but nine freshmen among 12 players total; 6-3 sophomore guard Rickea Jackson and freshman guard Gabrielle Elliott both score just more than 17 points per game.
Flint Hamady (18-5) vs. Hemlock (21-4) at Saginaw Heritage
Hamady will play in a Quarterfinal for the third straight season and fourth in five seasons as it pursues its first Class C title since 2010. The Hawks have only one senior starter, meaning this run shouldn’t end any time soon. Hemlock won its second Regional title after also advancing to this point in 2011. The Huskies have only two seniors, both starting guards, with Samantha Krauss averaging 18.1 ppg.
Schoolcraft (20-5) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (22-2) at Portage Northern, 6:30 p.m.
Schoolcraft earned its first Regional title last week, avenging its most recent loss in the Regional Semifinal, and has made a jump of four victories from a year ago. Pewamo-Westphalia will return to the Quarterfinals for the first time since 2011 after getting through arguably the toughest Class C District in the state. Junior forward Emily Spitzley leads three averaging at least eight points per game at 13.2 ppg.
Maple City Glen Lake (22-3) vs. St. Ignace (22-2) at Gaylord
St. Ignace has a run of eight straight Regional titles; six times during that run the Saints also made the Semifinals, and five times they advanced to the championship game of that class. Junior 6-1 guard Linnie Gustafson leads three scoring in double figures at 14.5 ppg. Glen Lake also has a long history of Regional titles, but last week's was its first since 2001. The Lakers are over 20 wins for the second straight season with junior forward Jennifer LaCross and senior guard Kelly Bunek leading at just more than 10 points per game.
Class D
Engadine (18-5) vs. Crystal Falls Forest Park (20-4) at Negaunee
Engadine has added to its win total every season over the last four and last week claimed its first Regional title since 2005. Freshman guard Sophia Vaughn is the lead scorer at 18.3 ppg. Forest Park lost out on a league title in the regular-season finale, but avenged that defeat to Bark River-Harris in the Regional Final to make the Quarterfinals for the fifth time in six seasons. Senior guard Abby Nylund leads at 14 ppg.
Waterford Our Lady (19-5) vs. Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (16-9) at Burton Bendle, 6 p.m.
Our Lady won its sixth Regional title in seven seasons and after making the Semifinals last year. Junior Tiffany Senerius leads again as the only starter back from last season’s team. MLS is in the Quarterfinals for the first time since 2012 and seeking its first Semifinal appearance. Sophomore forward Meghan Blaine averages 12.1 points and 7.8 rebounds per game and senior center Rylee Pankow helps with the post power with 10.1 ppg and 9.1 rpg.
St. Joseph Michigan Lutheran (23-2) vs. Pittsford (25-0) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
Pittsford is three wins from a second straight perfect season as star seniors Jaycie Burger (19.2 ppg, 5.3 apg) and Maddie Clark (16.4 ppg, 11.8 rpg) finish up championship careers. Michigan Lutheran won its second Regional title in this sport and first since 2004. Its only losses were to Class A St. Joseph and Class B Buchanan. Senior guard Emily Witkowski averages 19.3 ppg.
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (24-1) vs. Frankfort (16-9) at Buckley
Last season’s Class D runner-up has a more guard-driven look and no seniors, but Sacred Heart has been just as successful with its only loss a three-pointer to league rival Carson City-Crystal. Junior forward Sophie Ruggles and sophomore guard Scout Nelson average 14 and 13.5 ppg, respectively. Frankfort has won 10 of its last 11 games to make the Quarterfinals for the third time in four seasons. Senior forward Cecelia Schmitt averages 17.9 points and nine rebounds per game.
PHOTO: Pewamo-Westphalia pushes the ball upcourt during its District win over Carson City-Crystal two weeks ago. (Click to see more at HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.