Breslin Bound: Girls Regional Preview
March 7, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
It was not intentional that the five results from last week’s Districts highlighted in this week’s “Breslin Bound” report all came from Class A.
Rather, it’s an indication just how many contenders there appear to be in that tournament this season – and no doubt this week’s Regionals in the other three classes will provide similar excitement.
Below is a glance at those five District games that popped off the bracket most, plus a look at three Regionals of particular note in each class – all powered by MI Student Aid.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. East Lansing 48, DeWitt 47 – The Trojans avenged a one-point loss to the Panthers from the second week of this season in a matchup of Capital Area Activities Conference champions.
2. Bloomfield Hills Marian 47, Bloomfield Hills 45 – Marian ran its Class A District streak to six straight in this Final, handing Bloomfield Hills only its second loss and first since the first weekend in December.
3. East Kentwood 51, Grand Rapids Christian 49 – The Falcons also haven’t lost since the season’s first week, but just got past the Eagles in another Class A Final, this one a matchup of Ottawa-Kent Conference champs.
4. Farmington Hills Mercy 32, North Farmington 30 – North Farmington had a great season with 16 wins, but this Class A Final still had to be a bit of a scare for the Detroit Catholic League A-B champion.
5. Midland Dow 37, Saginaw Heritage 30 – This was a Class A District Semifinal, but matched rivals that had split during the regular season; both had aspirations of winning the MHSAA championship, and Dow went on to win the District.
Regionals at a Glance
These could be among our most competitive brackets. Host sites are in bold:
CLASS A
Dearborn Fordson
Dearborn (18-4), Detroit Martin Luther King (22-1), Livonia Churchill (9-14), Southfield Arts & Technology (18-4).
King has continued to turn away its share of tough opponents as it looks to return to the Class A championship game after finishing runner-up a year ago. The Crusaders could see two more this week; Dearborn also faced King in a Regional Semifinal last season and is two wins better than a year ago, and potential District Final opponent Southfield Arts & Technology has faced its share of contenders as well and has been considered one since the start of this winter. Churchill lost seven of its last eight to finish the regular season, but has gotten on the right track during the playoffs.
North Farmington
Farmington Hills Mercy (20-3), Hartland (22-1), Novi (17-6), Walled Lake Western (19-4).
With their only loss to King on Dec. 17, the Eagles are on a fantastic run and rightly should have dreams of their second Regional title in three seasons. They won a Kensington Lakes Activities Association overall title with Novi and Walled Lake Western also part of the bracket, although Hartland didn’t see either. As noted above, Mercy is the Detroit Catholic League A-B champ but had a scare in the District Final. Those two face each other Tuesday, with Western a KLAA division champion and Novi a runner-up on the other side of the bracket.
Zeeland East
East Kentwood (22-1), Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (16-7), Hudsonville (17-6), Muskegon Mona Shores (19-3).
East Kentwood and Mona Shores both had District scares as well, East Kentwood’s against Grand Rapids Christian mentioned above and Mona Shores a one-point Semifinal win over rival Muskegon. They face each other in one Semifinal this week, while on the other side Hudsonville is looking to repeat its 2016 trip to the Class A Semifinals and Forest Hills Northern is on a six-game winning streak that has included multiple wins over the champion of its O-K White, Lowell.
CLASS B
Detroit Mumford
Center Line (16-7), Detroit Collegiate Prep (16-5), Detroit Mumford (16-7), Redford Union (14-6).
Mumford will start its pursuit of a repeat Quarterfinal trip with another strong Detroit Public School League team in Collegiate Prep, which has added six wins to its total from 2015-16. On the other side of a wide-open bracket, Center Line has won six of its last eight while making the Macomb Area Conference Blue-Gold Tournament championship game, and Redford Union has reversed course from last season’s 6-15 finish.
Frankenmuth
Corunna (14-9), Freeland (23-0), Ithaca (19-4), Saginaw Swan Valley (18-5).
Freeland’s run to the Tri-Valley Conference Central title included a one-point win over Swan Valley, a possible Regional Final opponent. The Vikings open with Ithaca, a Class C semifinalist last season, while the Falcons will look to keep their perfect run alive against a Corunna team that has improved from 9-12 a year ago.
Hamilton
Grand Rapids Catholic Central (22-1), Hamilton (22-1), Howard City Tri-County (15-7), Muskegon Oakridge (21-2).
Hamilton, Oakridge and GRCC all won league championships, and Tri-County was a co-runner-up. Oakridge’s losses came back-to-back in December, and it is undefeated in 2017 as it takes on Hamilton in a Regional Semifinal for the second straight season – and with the opportunity to see GRCC in the title game also for the second straight winter. Hamilton’s only loss also was in December, to Class A Hudsonville, and GRCC’s defeat came on opening night to Class A Mona Shores.
CLASS C
Adrian Madison
Ann Arbor Greenhills (17-4), Blissfield (21-2), Grass Lake (17-6), Michigan Center (20-3).
Grass Lake won the Cascades Conference with a sweep of Michigan Center by 10 (in overtime) and 24. But the Cardinals have won 11 straight. To get a rematch, they first must get by Blissfield, the Lenawee County Athletic Association champion and owner of an 18-game winning streak with losses this season only to Class A Utica Ford and Class B Bay City John Glenn. And don’t forget about Greenhills, which also has won 11 straight and 15 of its last 16 after also going 17-4 last winter.
Flint Hamady
Brown City (16-6), Flint Hamady (16-5), Harbor Beach (17-5), Sandusky (23-0).
It’s hard to believe Hamady hasn’t won a Class C title since 2010; the Hawks are always in the mix and have won four Regionals this decade alone. But this could be one of their greatest challenges at this level of the tournament; Sandusky is playing for its first Regional title since 1999 and has been barely challenged, with only Harbor Beach getting as close as 10 to matching the Redskins. Sandusky, Harbor Beach and Brown City finished in the top three spots in the Greater Thumb Conference East. Hamady has seen its share of top teams, however, with losses to four others that also celebrated District titles last week – Detroit Country Day, Goodrich, Detroit Edison and Flushing.
Homer
Bronson (16-7), Kalamazoo Hackett (18-5), Niles Brandywine (19-4), Schoolcraft (18-5).
None of these teams won league championships, a testament to the tough competition they’ve faced in prepping for the postseason. Brandywine finished third in the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Red to Class B Comstock and Buchanan (which shared the title) and is seeking its third straight Regional championship and sixth in seven seasons. Bronson finished second in the BCS Blue and is seeking its first Regional title since 2002, and Hackett and Schoolcraft tied for second in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley and are both seeking a first championship in this round of the tournament.
CLASS D
Adrian Lenawee Christian
Ann Arbor Rudolf Steiner (20-1), Hillsdale Academy (16-7), Morrice (19-4), Pittsford (23-0).
It’s been quite a closing run for Pittsford’s veteran crew, who have won 50 straight since falling in the Class D Final in 2015. First up this week is Morrice, which has won 11 straight and shared the Genesee Area Conference Blue title, while on the other side waits a possible familiar foe – Hillsdale Academy finished second to Pittsford in the Southern Central Athletic Association East. The Colts begin Regional play with Mid-South Conference champ Rudolf Steiner, which lost only to Class C Whitmore Lake.
Kingsford
Bark River-Harris (15-7), Cooks Big Bay de Noc (10-12), Crystal Falls Forest Park (18-4), Painesdale-Jeffers (17-6)
A championship game between Skyline Central Conference West rivals Bark River-Harris and Crystal Falls Forest Park would be charged; the Trojans beat Bark River-Harris by 13 early but saw the league title slip away with a 13-point loss to the Broncos in the regular-season finale. Not that Jeffers, with 12 wins over its last 14 games, will go easily in its Regional Semifinal against Bark River-Harris. Big Bay de Noc finished last in the SCC East but beat the second and third-place teams to win last week’s District.
Marion
Custer Mason County Eastern (16-5), Fruitport Calvary Christian (20-1), Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (22-1), Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (18-5).
Sacred Heart, last season’s Class D runner-up, has dominated again with only a loss to Carson City-Crystal, and only the Eagles and Merrill have gotten within single digits of the Irish so far. Tri-unity, which like Sacred Heart fell to eventual champion Pittsford during last season’s tournament, is looking to return to the Quarterfinals for the second straight. Especially intriguing is Calvary Christian, which finished ahead of Tri-unity to win the Alliance League and is a one-point December loss to Class C Mason County Central from a perfect season but has never won a Regional. To get that opportunity, Calvary will first have to beat Mason County Eastern, which has righted itself after losing three of four at the end of the regular season.
PHOTO: Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart, here against Beal City, plays this week in what could be one of the toughest Regionals in Class D. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.