C-D Preview: Favorites Seeking to Finish
March 16, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The proposed favorites at this weekend’s MHSAA Class C and D Girls Basketball Finals have unfinished business from trips to the Breslin Center a year ago.
Ypsilanti Arbor Prep and Pittsford entered the postseason as the top-ranked teams in those classes, respectively, by The Associated Press – Arbor Prep coming off a Semifinals loss in 2015 and Pittsford bouncing back from an overtime defeat in the Class D championship game.
But claiming a title this time won’t be as easy as returning to East Lansing. All four Class C contenders are seeking to play in an MHSAA Final for the first time. Stephenson is seeking the same in Class D – and along with the Wildcats, faces a Semifinal opponent with recent championship history.
All four Class C and D Semifinals will be played Thursday, with all four championship games Saturday.
Semifinals - Thursday
Class C
Niles Brandywine (24-2) vs. Traverse City St. Francis (25-1), 1 p.m.
Ithaca (24-2) vs. Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (23-2), 2:50 p.m.
Class D
Pittsford (25-0) vs Waterford Our Lady (20-4), 6 p.m.
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (23-1) vs Stephenson (24-2), 7:50 p.m.
Finals - Saturday
Class A - Noon
Class B - 6 p.m.
Class C - 4 p.m.
Class D - 10 a.m.
Tickets cost $8 per pair of Semifinals and $10 per two-game Finals session. All Semifinals will be streamed live on MHSAA.TV on a pay-per-view basis. All four Finals will be broadcast live on Fox Sports Detroit’s primary channel, with the Class B game on a delayed basis at 10:30 p.m. Free radio broadcasts of all weekend games will be available on MHSAANetwork.com.
And now, a look at the semifinalists in Class C and D. Click on the name of the school to see that team’s full schedule and results from this season. (Statistics are through teams' Regional Finals; Ithaca’s include Tuesday’s Quarterfinal.)
Class C
ITHACA
Record/rank: 24-2, No. 7
League finish: First in Tri-Valley Conference West
Coach: Jessie Rayburn, fourth season (40-42)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 51-43 over No. 2 Flint Hamady in Quarterfinal, 68-45 over Reese in Regional Final, 53-41 over New Lothrop in Regional Semifinal, 57-53 over Hemlock in District Final.
Players to watch: Kayla Belles, 6-3 soph. C (18 ppg, 13.3 rpg, 4.2 bpg, 2.1 spg); Maddie Brock, 5-10 jr. F (9.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg); Brooklyn Dolloff, 5-4 sr. G (9.5 ppg, 3.9 spg).
Outlook: Ithaca has been on the verge of this best-ever run, but it’s still a little incredible given that coach Bob Anderson retired midseason because of health issues. In stepped assistant Rayburn, who was head coach from 2009-11, and the Yellowjackets have barely missed a beat with their only losses to Class B No. 8 Freeland and No. 9 Frankenmuth. Belles has put up some incredible games over her first two seasons, and she’s surrounded in the starting lineup by three seniors and a junior. The Regional title also was the first in program history.
NILES BRANDYWINE
Record/rank: 24-2, honorable mention
League finish: First in Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference Red
Coach: Josh Hood, seventh season (162-12)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 53-47 over No. 9 Gobles in Regional Final, 40-24 over Grand Rapids Covenant Christian in Quarterfinal, 53-44 over Class B honorable mention Stevensville Lakeshore.
Players to watch: Makenna Hartline, 5-10 sr. C (no statistics submitted); Michaela Hartline, 5-10 sr. F (no statistics submitted).
Outlook: Brandywine is back at the Semifinals for the first time since 2010 and has won at least 20 games every season and never lost more than two under Hood since he took over the program that historic winter. Five seniors start, and while the Bobcats don’t go taller than 5-10, the Hartlines are strong in the post. The only losses this season were to South Bend Adams (Ind.) and Class A Southfield, which finished 20-2.
TRAVERSE CITY ST. FRANCIS
Record/rank: 24-1, No. 3 (tied)
League finish: First in Lake Michigan Conference
Coach: Keith Haske, first season (24-1)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 48-44 over No. 6 St. Ignace in Quarterfinal, 62-55 over Maple City Glen Lake in District Final, 76-72 over Class D No. 7 Frankfort, 51-38 and 54-29 over Kalkaska.
Players to watch: Annie Lyman, 5-10 sr. F (14 ppg); Juliana Phillips, 6-4 jr. F (12 ppg, 10 rpg).
Outlook: St. Francis has won 23 straight since falling early to Class B No. 5 Manistee. Haske coached both the boys and girls teams this season and has taken a girls team this far before – his 2004 Charlevoix team finished Class C runner-up. With two sophomores and a junior in the starting lineup and only three seniors total, this might be the first of a few trips for this group. Senior center Lauren McDonnell adds another 10 points per game.
YPSILANTI ARBOR PREP
Record/rank: 23-2, No. 1
League finish: Does not play in a league.
Coach: Rod Wells, fifth season (101-17)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 40-30 over No. 5 Napoleon in Regional Final, 66-42 over No. 10 Saginaw Nouvel, 52-41 over Class B No. 5 Manistee, 50-47 over Class B No. 2 Bay City John Glenn.
Players to watch: Nastassja Chambers, 5-8 sr. G (11.2 ppg, 2.8 apg, 2.8 spg); Ro’zhane Wells, 5-5 jr. G (11 ppg, 3.3 apg, 2.6 spg); Cydney Williams, 5-11 jr. F (7.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.6 bpg).
Outlook: Arbor Prep has won three straight Regional titles and fell to eventual runner-up Hamady in a Semifinal last season. Chambers is the lone senior starter but has been the team’s leading scorer during its two runs to Breslin. And big-game experience isn’t a problem: the Gators again played one of the toughest schedules for a Class C school, handing Class B contender John Glenn its only loss and falling to reigning Class B champion Detroit Country Day and Class A No. 5 Ann Arbor Huron.
Class D
MOUNT PLEASANT SACRED HEART
Record/rank: 23-1, No. 3.
League finish: First in Mid-South Activities Conference.
Coach: Damon Brown, eighth season (153-39)
Championship history: Class D champion 2014, runner-up 2008.
Best wins: 27-26 over Gaylord St. Mary in Quarterfinal, 44-25 over Fruitport Calvary Christian in Regional Semifinal, 54-34 over Big Rapids Crossroads Academy in District Semifinal, 45-40 over Class C honorable mention Morley Stanwood.
Players to watch: Averi Gamble, 6-3 sr. C (16.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.1 bpg); Scout Nelson, fr. G (9.2 ppg, 3.2 apg, 3.3 spg).
Outlook: Sacred Heart has made the season’s final week the last four years and won Class D in 2014 with now-seniors Gamble and guard Megan English in the starting lineup. Gamble was named this week the Class D Player of the Year by The Associated Press. The Irish’s only loss was by five to Class C No. 10 Saginaw Nouvel, and they’ve had only four wins decided by double figures – and given up more than 40 points only three times. Sophomore forward Sophie Ruggles adds 7.6 points and five rebounds per game.
PITTSFORD
Record/rank: 25-0, No. 1
League finish: First in Southern Central Athletic Association East
Coach: Chris Hodos, fourth season (89-8)
Championship history: Class D runner-up 2015.
Best wins: 61-43 over Class D No. 5 Climax-Scotts, 56-36 over Manchester, 53-41 over Belleville.
Players to watch: Maddie Clark, 5-10 jr. F (17.7 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 3.1 apg, 3.5 spg); Jaycie Burger, 5-9 jr. G (19.2 ppg, 72 3-pointers, 6.3 apg, 3.1 spg).
Outlook: Pittsford’s 2015 Finals run ended with an overtime loss in the championship game. Three starters and six of eight players who saw the floor that day returned for this run, with Burger and Clark continuing to shine after breaking onto the statewide scene at Breslin a year ago. Senior center Maddie Ayers adds 8.5 points per game and sophomore guard Sydni Brunette had scored 8.3 off the bench a team outscoring opponents 67-23 on average. The Wildcats haven’t lost a regular-season game since 2011-12.
STEPHENSON
Record/rank: 24-2, No. 8
League finish: Does not play in a league.
Coach: Shanna Beal, second season (35-12)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 60-35 over No. 2 Newberry in Semifinal, 60-36 over honorable mention Crystal Falls Forest Park in Regional Final, 57-56 (OT) over No. 4 Bark River-Harris in District Semifinal, 51-43 over Norway.
Players to watch: Tori Wangerin, 5-10 sr. C (18 ppg, 12.2 rpg, 2.0 bpg); Karley Johnson, 5-8 sr. G (11 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 4.8 apg, 3.4 spg); Kelsey Johnson, 5-8 sr. G (14 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 4.6 apg).
Outlook: Stephenson advanced from its first Quarterfinal since 1982 to its first Semifinal ever while facing most of the best from the Upper Peninsula and avenging an earlier loss to Bark River-Harris along the way. The Eagles made a huge jump after finishing 11-10 during Beal’s first season, and with Wangerin and the Johnsons as the team’s only seniors. Stephenson’s 10-game winning streak has included nine by 13 or more points.
WATERFORD OUR LADY
Record/rank: 20-4, No. 6.
League finish: First in Detroit Catholic League East.
Coach: Steve Robak, ninth season (166-56)
Championship history: Three MHSAA titles (most recent 2012), one runner-up finish.
Best wins: 51-43 over Kingston in Quarterfinal, 47-35 over Morrice in Regional Final, 40-24 over Madison Heights Bishop Foley, 46-44, 41-23 and 55-53 over Wixom St. Catherine.
Players to watch: Alex Troy, 5-4 sr. G (12.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 3.0 spg); Tiffany Senerius, 5-8 soph. F (12.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.2 spg).
Outlook: Our Lady will make its sixth Semifinal appearance in seven seasons and with all five starters back from last year’s surprise run, when the Lakers advanced after entering the postseason with a sub-.500 record. They have won 10 straight and avenged a loss to Bishop Foley by winning a final rematch in the Catholic League C-D championship game. Our Lady graduates four players, but 10 could return for another run in 2017.
The Girls Basketball Finals are presented by Sparrow Health System.
PHOTO: Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart's Averi Gamble grabs a rebound during a Regional Final win over Portland St. Patrick. (Click to see more at HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.