C-D Preview: Perfection & Possibilities
March 15, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
One of the state’s most impressive winning streaks in any sport this decade will take the main stage again this weekend at Michigan State University’s Breslin Center.
Reigning Class D champion Pittsford will attempt to finish a second straight undefeated season and build on a run that has seen the Wildcats win 101 of their last 103 games over the last four winters.
Meanwhile, four of eight semifinalists in Class C and D are seeking their first championships ever, with a fifth playing for its first title in nearly four decades.
All four Class C and D Semifinals will be played Thursday, with all four championship games Saturday.
Semifinals - Thursday
Class C
Detroit Edison PSA (19-5) vs. Flint Hamady (19-5), 1 p.m.
Pewamo-Westphalia (23-2) vs. Maple City Glen Lake (23-3), 2:50 p.m.
Class D
Engadine (19-5) vs. Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (17-9), 6 p.m.
Pittsford (26-0) vs. Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (25-1), 7:50 p.m.
Finals - Saturday
Class A - Noon
Class B - 6 p.m.
Class C - 4 p.m.
Class D - 10 a.m.
Tickets cost $8 per pair of Semifinals and $10 per two-game Finals session. All Semifinals will be streamed live on MHSAA.tv on a pay-per-view basis. All four Finals will be broadcast live on Fox Sports Detroit, the Class D, A and C Finals on the network’s PLUS channel and Class B on the primary channel. Free radio broadcasts of all weekend games will be available on MHSAANetwork.com.
And now, a look at the semifinalists in Class C and D. Click on the name of the school to see that team’s full schedule and results from this season. (Statistics are through teams' Regional Finals.) The Girls Basketball Finals are presented by Sparrow Health System.
Class C
DETROIT EDISON PUBLIC SCHOOL ACADEMY
Record/rank: 19-5, No. 5
League finish: Does not play in a league.
Coach: Monique Brown, sixth season (80-35)
Championship history: Has not appeared in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 58-42 over No. 10 Blissfield in the Quarterfinal, 43-39 over Flint Hamady 58-55 over Detroit Mumford, 57-56 over Class A No. 6 Southfield Arts & Technology, 57-45 over Chicago Whitney Young.
Players to watch: Gabrielle Elliott, 5-10 fr. G (17.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.2 spg); Rickea Jackson, 6-3 soph. G (17.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 3.1 apg, 3.4 spg, 2.3 bpg).
Outlook: It’s difficult to not point out immediately that Edison has no seniors, two juniors, one sophomore and nine freshmen – and that they’ve been tested this season against top teams from Classes A and B as well as C. All five losses came to larger schools, including two still alive this weekend. Elliott – one of three freshman starters – made the all-state first team and Jackson was named to the second, while Brown was named Coach of the Year by The Associated Press.
FLINT HAMADY
Record/rank: 19-5, unranked
League finish: First in Genesee Area Conference Blue.
Coach: Keith Smart, 15th season (332-44)
Championship history: Three MHSAA titles (most recent 2010), two runner-up finishes.
Best wins: 38-36 over No. 1 Sandusky in the Regional Final, 75-67 over Dearborn Heights Robichaud, 51-46 over Goodrich, 81-27 over Lake Fenton, 55-50 over Flint Beecher in the District Final.
Players to watch: Deajah Cofield, 5-7 sr. G (15 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 5.0 apg); Sasha Penn, 5-7 jr. G (statistics not available for Penn).
Outlook: Hamady was unranked after taking losses to one Class A and three Class B teams, plus Detroit Edison. But Cofield was named Class C co-Player of the Year by The Associated Press and Penn and senior Krystal Rice earned all-state honorable mentions (although Rice is out for the season with a knee injury). This is Hamady’s third Semifinal this decade; the Hawks were Class C runners-up in 2015.
MAPLE CITY GLEN LAKE
Record/rank: 23-3, unranked
League finish: First in Northwest Conference.
Coach: Jason Bradford, ninth season (146-58)
Championship history: Class D champion 1978, runner-up 1979.
Best wins: 63-52 over No. 7 St. Ignace in the Quarterfinal, 50-44 over No. 2 Traverse City St. Francis in the District Semifinal, 55-40 and 42-38 over Kingsley.
Players to watch: Kelly Bunke, 5-6 sr. G (10.3 ppg, 4,4 rpg, 2.9 apg); Jennifer LaCross, 5-8 jr. F (10.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3.0 apg).
Outlook: Glen Lake has won 20 games two seasons in a row for Bradford, with two league titles, and has shown it belongs among the elite in the postseason with two wins over ranked opponents, including avenging its opening-night defeat to St. Francis. The only other losses were to eventual Class B quarterfinalist Cadillac and in overtime to McBain. This will be Glen Lake’s first Semifinal since 1995. Bunek earned an all-state honorable mention.
PEWAMO-WESTPHALIA
Record/rank: 23-2, No. 6
League finish: Second in Central Michigan Athletic Conference.
Coach: Steve Eklund, eighth season (154-33)
Championship history: Class C runner-up 1983 and 1984.
Best wins: 40-31 and 38-31 over honorable mention Laingsburg, 50-27 over Ithaca, 55-34 over Springport in the Regional Final, 44-28 over Bath in the District Semifinal.
Players to watch: Emily Spitzley, 5-10 jr. F (13.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.2 spg); Hannah Spitzley, 5-10 fr. F (8.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.5 spg).
Outlook: P-W is returning to the Semifinal for the first time since 2002, avenging its two losses by beating CMAC champ Bath to open the postseason. The Pirates start two seniors but also two freshmen – guard Ellie Droste adds 8.6 points and 2.5 steals per game. Defense is this team’s strong point; Schoolcraft (19) in the Quarterfinal marked the 15th time this season P-W held a team under 30 points, and the Pirates have given up more than 31 only twice (in those losses to Bath). Emily Spitzley made the all-state second team.
Class D
ENGADINE
Record/rank: 19-5, honorable mention
League finish: Second in Eastern Upper Peninsula Athletic Conference.
Coach: Roger French, seventh season (79-64)
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 44-41 over No. 8 Crystal Falls Forest Park in the Quarterfinal, 50-48 (Regional Final) and 40-39 over honorable mention Pickford in the Regional Final, 60-55 and 63-57 over No. 10 Cedarville
Players to watch: Olivia Vaughn, 5-9 sr. F (18.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 3.2 spg); Aubrey Simmons, 5-10 jr. C (12 ppg, 12.7 rpg).
Outlook: Engadine is playing in its second Semifinals after also making the final weekend in 2005. The Eagles were one of three Class D teams from their EUP conference to receive state poll votes and emerged with eight wins over their last nine games. Vaughn and starting forward Keely Fuller are the only seniors, while freshman guard Sophie Vaughn – Olivia’s sister – adds 8.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. Engadine won only four games four seasons ago, but has upped its win total every season since.
MOUNT PLEASANT SACRED HEART
Record/rank: 25-1, No. 2
League finish: First in Mid-State Activities Conference.
Coach: Damon Brown (ninth season (178-41)
Championship history: Class D champion 2014, runner-up 2016 and 2008.
Best wins: 48-37 over Frankfort in the Quarterfinal, 52-25 over Fruitport Calvary Christian in the Regional Final, 23-17 over Carson City-Crystal.
Players to watch: Scout Nelson, 5-9 soph. G (13.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.1 apg, 4.0 spg); Sophie Ruggles, 6-0 jr. F (14 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 3.4 spg).
Outlook: Few Class D teams would have this kind of success the year after graduating an all-state center and three-year starting guard. But the Irish rose again in a league featuring 19-win Class C Carson City-Crystal, and Frankfort was the only playoff opponent to score more than 30 points. Nelson and Ruggles made the all-state first team and with junior Hadyn Terwilliger (8.3 ppg) started in last season’s Class D Final.
SAGINAW MICHIGAN LUTHERAN SEMINARY
Record/rank: 17-9, unranked
League finish: Fifth in Tri-Valley Conference West
Coach: Brian Blaine, first season (17-9)
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 56-48 over Waterford Our Lady in the Quarterfinal, 44-39 over Portland St. Patrick in the Regional Semifinal, 56-34 over Bay City All Saints in the District Final, 45-39 over Hemlock.
Players to watch: Meghan Blaine, 5-10 soph. F (12.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.7 apg); Rylee Pankow, 5-10 sr. C (10.ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.0 spg).
Outlook: MLS may not have been the pick to advance farthest from the mostly Class B-C TVC West that had four teams total win at least 16 games. But the Cardinals have won 10 straight games and did make the Quarterfinals as recently as 2012, although this will be the program’s first Semifinal. Meghan Blaine can also score from the outside, with 46 3-pointers entering the week, and total six players have scored at least 12 points in a game this season.
PITTSFORD
Record/rank: 26-0, No. 1
League finish: First in Southern Central Athletic Association East
Coach: Chris Hodos, fifth season (117-8)
Championship history: Class D champion 2016, runner-up 2015.
Best wins: 62-19 over No. 6 St. Joseph Michigan Lutheran in the Quarterfinal, 59-47 over Manchester, 59-33 over Bellevue, 57-39 over Grass Lake.
Players to watch: Maddie Clark, 5-9 sr. F (16.4 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 3.4 spg); Jaycie Burger, 5-9 sr. G (19.2 ppg, 5.3 apg, 3.2 spg, 62 3-pointers).
Outlook: Pittsford’s 53-game winning streak is just short of making the MHSAA record book list, and it’s four-season run of 101-2 can’t have many rivals although that statistic hasn’t been kept. Clark was named Class D Player of the Year by The Associated Press and Burger also a first-team all-stater as both continued to star in leading their team to Breslin for the third straight season. Junior guard Marissa Shaw adds another 8.6 points and 6.2 steals per game, and she’d made 56 3-pointers entering this week.
PHOTO: Pittsford celebrates last season's Class D championship at the Breslin Center.
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.