Calumet Steps Closer to Class C Throne
March 19, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
EAST LANSING – Clara Loukus was all jitters when Thursday’s first Class C Semifinal tipped off at the Breslin Center. And her coach Jeff Twardzik knew it.
But he also could tell from the way she launched her 3-point shot with three minutes to play that it would find the bottom of the net – and more importantly, that she was ready to carry the Copper Kings to their first MHSAA championship game.
Loukus scored one third of Calumet’s points and spearheaded a defensive effort that stopped undefeated Laingsburg cold over the final seven minutes of the fourth quarter.
And the Copper Kings indeed moved on, edging the top-ranked Wolfpack 30-26 to advance to Saturday’s 4 p.m. Final against Flint Hamady.
“Last night I couldn’t sleep. ... The first half I was riled up,” Loukus said. “The second half came, and I calmed myself down, got my got my rhythm. I knew I had my whole team behind me, and I had to do this for them.”
Stingy defense played a part in both teams advancing to the Semifinals this season for the first time. Laingsburg (26-1) gave up only 25.7 points per game entering Thursday, while Calumet (23-2) wasn’t far behind that pace, allowing 32.5.
And that certainly played out from the opening tip. Laingsburg did make 50 percent of its shots during the first half – but launched only 10 times. Calumet shot 10 percent better during the second half than the first – but only 39 percent from the floor over the final two quarters and 32 percent for the game.
Although the Wolfpack made only two of 11 shots during the third quarter, the Copper Kings still trailed 23-21 when a Laingsburg turnover at 7:14 of the fourth started a run that will be among highlights of Calumet’s historic trip downstate.
The Copper Kings earned that turnover with their fullcourt press, and tied the score on junior Leah Kiilunen’s basket with 6:26 to play. Calumet then forced another turnover, and then another when Loukus gathered a steal with 5:06 on the clock.
The teams traded missed shots until senior Alexis Rowe dropped in a layup with 4:22 to play to give the Copper Kings a 25-23 lead. Another miss and turnover set up Loukus for her game-deciding 3-pointer with 3:02 to play.
“She’s that heartbeat that never quits,” Twardzik said. “You never quite now when it’s going to come, but that 3-poiner, I could tell when it left her hands. The kids were nervous coming in, understandably. But I could tell she calmed down, and she took that shot in rhythm.”
Laingsburg did score its first and only basket of the final period with 1:26 to play to pull within 28-26. But the Wolfpack turned the ball over twice more, the second time on a pass into the middle of the lane that Loukus intercepted. She was fouled and made both free throw attempts with nine seconds to play.
“I turned to my assistant and I said, ‘She’s going to make these two,’” Twardzik said. “That’s the way she’s built.”
Loukas finished with 10 points and five steals, and Rowe added seven points. Junior 6-foot-2 center Janie Torola came off the bench and became an obstacle in the middle playing all but two minutes of the second half, and she grabbed nine rebounds and blocked three shots to go with seven points.
Freshman Sophie Wilsey led Laingsburg with eight points and four rebounds.
"For the last four or five games, we've struggled a little bit with our offense. We've been managing to score in the 30s or 40 range, and with our defense that typically gives us the opportunity to win," Laingsburg coach Doug Hurst said. "Tonight it was a credit to their defense as well, a lot of it to their defense, actually. … They're big, they're long, and that kinda changed things a little bit."
Calumet entered the tournament unranked, and traveled 500 miles to East Lansing after making their first Quarterfinal appearance Tuesday since 1977.
“This is everybody’s dream, to get here. And when you step into the first practice, you talk to the kids; why not dream big?” Twardzik said. “I truly believed in this group of kids. I’ve had an opportunity to be a part since they were very young, (because) my daughter (Ellen) is a senior.
“In my wildest dreams, did I have this dream? Yes. Did I believe it could be true? Absolutely.”
“We come from a small town. Not a lot of people know about you,” Rowe added. “I remember yesterday, coming down in the gym, everybody’s eyes were wide open. Friday we’ve just got to go back to the mental (preparation), and Saturday just wake up and play our game and be ready.”
Click for the full box score and video of the press conference.
PHOTOS: (Top) Calumet's Abby Bjorn (44) works to get around Laingsburg's Sara Hurst on Thursday. (Middle) The Copper Kings' Alexis Rowe goes up for a shot while Julia Angst (5) works for a stop.
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.