Contenders Hope to Follow Saints' Path
March 14, 2016
By Dennis Grall
Special for Second Half
The St. Ignace girls basketball team is obviously quite familiar with the Mackinac Bridge.
The Saints live at the Upper Peninsula's eastern connection to downstate, and they seem to make regular trips across the bridge in quest of MHSAA championships.
The Newberry and Stephenson girls basketball teams are virtual strangers to the glorious span that connects the two peninsulas. That is about to change, as Tuesday they face each other in a Class D Quarterfinal at Negaunee in hopes of earning a first downstate trip in decades.
Newberry has not crossed the bridge for girls basketball since 1990, while Stephenson's last trip to the mitten came in 1982. Newberry (23-1) claimed its Class D Regional title Thursday by clipping Pickford 44-34 while Stephenson (23-2) captured its Class D Regional by shelling Crystal Falls Forest Park 60-36.
St. Ignace, meanwhile, nudged Calumet 53-52 in a classic – and rare – showdown of reigning MHSAA champions. It was the first loss of the season for Calumet, which won the Class C title in 2015. The Saints won the Class D banner a year ago, then returned to Class C this season.
The Saints also won the Class D championship in 2013 and took Class C titles in 1999, 2000 and 2011. All five titles came with Dorene Ingalls as head coach. St. Ignace (23-2) faces Traverse City St. Francis on Tuesday in Gaylord.
St. Ignace edged Calumet when Natalie Lee hit a free throw with 1.1 seconds left to play at Marquette High School. Lee scored 10 points and had six assists, while all-state candidate Abby Ostman had 22 points and nine rebounds and Linnie Gustafson had 10 assists, 10 rebounds, five blocked shots and four steals.
Ingalls said Gustafson and Jade Edelman have been "stepping up" down the stretch. Ostman, who signed to accept a basketball scholarship to Michigan Tech University, is averaging 19.9 points and 8.9 rebounds this season.
"We have a different group of kids this year," said Ingalls, admitting to some roller-coaster performances this season. "They had to step up in different roles and they have been learning and learning. It's been a fun year, but it has been challenging at times. We've had to walk them through a lot of stuff. We really have been re-inventing the wheel some times."
Under Ingalls since 1999, the Saints are a lofty 360-67. That success continued this year because, as the 2016 Upper Peninsula Sports Hall of Fame inductee said, "We try to raise the bar at a high level. How good do we want to be? We want to get to a certain level every day."
Ingalls said losses to Newberry and Sault Ste. Marie were beneficial. "They really made us dig deep. It was a good lesson for them," she said.
The Saints are accustomed to playing in pressure situations, and Ingalls said this year, "They put the pressure on themselves. I couldn't be more proud of this group. It's taken a while to click, and we're still clicking. We're getting closer together and becoming more of a family.
"I'm very proud of where we've been, where we've come from and where we're going."
She said slipping past Calumet was special, because the teams bonded last year at the bridge when the Saints greeted Calumet upon their trip back from East Lansing. She said it was hard to see Calumet lose "in a game that was played the right way, just a good basketball game, a clean basketball game."
While crossing the bridge is old hat for the Saints, none of the Newberry or Stephenson players were even alive the last time their schools made it downstate. "That is pretty cool," said Newberry coach Fred Bryant, who has been coaching these players since third grade and is in his second year with the varsity.
A member of that 1990 Regional title team was Chris Nance, perhaps the school's best player. She was at Thursday's game and talked to the team after the game. "She told the kids they were a lot of fun to watch and that they remind her of her team," said Bryant, who added that Nance said both clubs did it by "hard work and determination."
Bryant's daughter, junior point guard Taylor Bryant, averages 18.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, six assists and five steals per game. Senior Bridget Stoetzer averages 11.5 points and 5.5 rebounds.
The Indians lack size, with no one taller than 5-foot-7. They like to press and use an up-tempo offense, averaging 53 points while allowing 36. "We try to push the tempo as much as possible," said coach Bryant, noting they are used to playing against bigger teams, which will be the case again Tuesday.
Playing against St. Ignace over the years has helped this unit develop, highlighted by a split of the regular-season series this season and three losses by a total of 11 points last season.
"They have learned how they (St. Ignace) carry themselves and they have learned how to finish games and not panic," Bryant said his team’s growth from the St. Ignace showdowns. "We've had five really good games with them. We've gotten as much from playing them as they have gotten from playing us."
The Indians learned those lessons well, persevering several times this season, highlighted by erasing a 10-point District deficit against Engadine, overcoming a couple of deficits to edge Posen in overtime and then coming back from a 10-point halftime deficit against Pickford on Thursday.
"I don't think it sunk in until after we left the restaurant in St. Ignace after the game Thursday," Bryant said, indicating the final 45 minutes on the bus were quite lively.
Bryant said the players have been working hard to reach this point. "It is nice to see them realize their potential. I hope this resonates through the program, I hope this lights a fire. We haven't had any sustained success in our program."
Although Stephenson has not been downstate since 1982, the Eagles have enjoyed more success than Newberry. They have taken five District titles since then, including in 2010 and 2014, and this year stunned favored Bark River-Harris 57-56 in overtime in a District test at BR-H.
"Our regular-season game (with BR-H at Stephenson) was the turning point of our season," said second-year coach Shanna Beal. Noting the Eagles had only six players available because of illnesses, she recalled having to finish with three players because of fouls. BR-H won 61-56 but Beal said, "They realized what they could do. Bark River is the team we tried to compare ourselves to."
The District game provided "a championship game atmosphere. It was just crazy," said Beal. "It was kind of shocking, and it was a great feeling (to win). Their kids had such high expectations, and we had such a good halftime lead (32-17).
"We had prepared for it so much and we used a different game plan to try to shut down their post players. We were fortunate to come out on top."
In the District finale, freshman Autumn Rasner hit six 3-point baskets and scored 21 points in the first half as the Eagles defeated Powers North Central. Rasner had 17 points and four triples against Forest Park in the Regional finale.
Beal said the team had a police and fire squad escort out of town Thursday and again when the team returned from the Regional finale.
She said she made more strategic adjustments this season and the Eagles "took it game-by-game. We weren't disappointed with our losses (to BR-H and Norway) because they played their hearts out."
The Eagles rely more on their senior-dominated size, with 5-8 center Tori Wangerin averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds per game. Twin sisters Kelsey Johnson (14 points, 10 rebounds, five assists) and Karley Johnson (11 points, five assists) share point guard duties and other spots, helping the Eagles average 60 points while yielding 40.
Denny Grall retired in 2012 after 39 years at the Escanaba Daily Press and four at the Green Bay Press-Gazette, plus 15 months for WLST radio in Escanaba; he served as the Daily Press sports editor from 1970-80 and again from 1984-2012. Grall was inducted into the Upper Peninsula Sports Hall of Fame in 2002 and serves as its executive secretary. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for the Upper Peninsula.
PHOTO: (Top) A Stephenson guard calls out a play during last week’s District game against Chassell. (Middle) Newberry and St. Ignace split a pair of regular-season matchups this season. (Photos by Paul Gerard.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.