Countdown to Calvin: District Preview
February 26, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Over the next three weeks, 700 Michigan high school girls basketball teams will play to become one of four to hoist trophies as 2017-18 MHSAA champions.
The first steps toward achieving that ultimate goal will come at District tournaments tipping off tonight all over our state.
Over the next two weeks, we’ll alter the format of our Countdown to Calvin reports – powered by MI Student Aid – still looking at some of the key results from last week but also at three of the most eye-catching brackets in each class for the upcoming week of playoffs.
This week, that means we’ll take closer looks at 12 Districts total in addition to scores from last week that saw some of the state’s best match up one more time before single elimination games begin. (Click here to navigate brackets for all 128 tournaments.)
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Detroit Edison 57, Saginaw Heritage 55 (2OT) – We’ll know March 17 if this titanic matchup featured the eventual champions in Class C and Class A, respectively.
2. Kingsley 70, Maple City Glen Lake 66 – Kingsley completed a perfect regular season and an outright Northwest Conference championship with this win over the second-place Lakers.
3. Wayne Memorial 50, Howell 46 – After coming back to beat Hartland in the semifinal, Wayne won this matchup of Class A contenders to claim the overall Kensington Lakes Activities Association title.
4. Traverse City St. Francis 56, Charlevoix 47 – St. Francis avenged a two-point loss to Charlevoix from Feb. 2 to break a first-place tie and clinch the Lake Michigan Conference title.
5. Ypsilanti Arbor Prep 44, Harper Woods Chandler Park 43 – Another Class C favorite, Arbor Prep, avenged a 24-point loss to the Class B Eagles from Jan. 25.
Districts at a Glance
These could be among our most competitive brackets. Host sites are in bold:
CLASS A
Flint Carman-Ainsworth
Fenton (14-6), Flint Carman-Ainsworth (18-2), Flint Southwestern (2-15), Flushing (16-4), Grand Blanc (10-10), Linden (0-19), Swartz Creek (9-11).
Reigning Class A champion Flushing held on to win another Flint Metro League championship and has won 16 of its last 18. But host Carman-Ainsworth is the likely favorite thanks in part to a 21-point win over the Raiders in the season opener. Carman-Ainsworth finished second in the Saginaw Valley League to one-loss Heritage, with its only losses to Heritage and reigning Class B champion Detroit Country Day. Carman-Ainsworth and Flushing would see each other in the District Final – but Fenton could get in the way. The Tigers face Flushing in tonight’s opener and beat Flushing by 18 just two weeks ago.
Midland
Bay City Central (3-17), Bay City Western (17-3), Midland (13-7), Midland Dow (15-5), Mount Pleasant (11-9), Saginaw Heritage (19-1).
These teams all play in the Saginaw Valley League, and that familiarity could be advantageous and dangerous for just about every team in the field. Heritage is a favorite to win the whole thing this season – but on its side of this bracket, Mount Pleasant has enjoyed its best finish in years and Midland bounced back from a 0-3 start to place fifth in the 14-team league. Dow and Western meet to start the other side of the bracket, with the Chargers winning their lone meeting by 12 two weeks ago – but the Warriors hoping to re-catch the momentum that helped them to a 13-0 start.
Owosso
DeWitt (19-1), East Lansing (20-0), Grand Ledge (12-8), Lansing Waverly (11-9), Owosso (5-15), St. Johns (14-6).
There may be no more closely contended recent rivalry in the state than DeWitt versus East Lansing. Those Class A contenders have played three straight games decided by a point. The Trojans, boasting recently announced Miss Basketball candidate Jaida Hampton, won the Dec. 5 meeting 52-51 and also last season’s District Final over the Panthers 48-47 – after DeWitt won last season’s first matchup 59-58. They would face off again in this District Final. But don’t forget: Grand Ledge made back-to-back Class A Quarterfinals in 2013 and 2014 and the Semifinals the second time, and St. Johns made the Semifinals only two seasons ago.
CLASS B
Battle Creek Pennfield
Battle Creek Pennfield (15-5), Comstock (19-1), Marshall (10-10), Olivet (11-9), Parchment (6-14).
Comstock has been building to a season like this for the last five, and has increased its win total for the fourth straight already this winter. The Colts surely are looking forward to their first game this week against Marshall on Wednesday – the Redhawks have ended Comstock’s last four seasons. Marshall could be dangerous though with four wins in its last five games after making the Class B Semifinals last season and winning Class B in 2016. On the other side of the bracket, Pennfield finished third, two spots ahead of Marshall in a strong Interstate 8 Athletic Conference. The Panthers skidded a bit the last few weeks with three losses over their last five games, but those losses came to the other three top teams in the league.
Big Rapids
Alma (15-5), Big Rapids (18-2), Clare (11-8), Remus Chippewa Hills (3-17), Shepherd (6-14), Stanton Central Montcalm (20-0).
Central Montcalm has jumped from seven to 12 to 17 and now 20 wins over the last four seasons and won the Central State Activities Association Gold with wins of nine and seven points over Big Rapids. Those were the only defeats this season for the host Cardinals, and a Semifinal rematch would be one of the state’s biggest Wednesday games. But Big Rapids can’t look past Alma in the opener – the Panthers finished second to Freeland (18-2) in the Tri-Valley Conference Central. On the other side of the bracket, Clare tied for third in a competitive Jack Pine Conference after sharing the league title a year ago.
Kalkaska
Benzie Central (16-4), Cadillac (3-17), Kalkaska (15-5), Kingsley (20-0), Ludington (12-8), Manistee (11-9), Reed City (14-6).
Kingsley joins Central Montcalm as one of only two undefeated teams left in Class B, and the Stags’ run included handing Benzie Central two of its defeats. Kingsley would see Lakes 8 Conference runner-up Ludington in a District Semifinal, but wouldn’t see Benzie or Kalkaska until the championship game. Those two could meet Wednesday. Benzie must get past a Reed City team that finished fourth in a strong CSAA Gold – see references to Central Montcalm and Big Rapids above – while Kalkaska must get past a Manistee team that has won five of its last six.
CLASS C
Ishpeming
Gwinn (9-11), Ishpeming (17-3), Ishpeming Westwood (14-6), Negaunee (20-0).
This is an all-Mid-Peninsula Athletic Conference District, and these are four of the top five finishers. Negaunee improved five wins this regular season despite scares from both Ishpeming and Westwood – the Patriots missed breaking up the perfect run by just a basket on Jan. 19, and they and Negaunee face off on one side of the bracket Wednesday. Ishpeming, which got within seven of Negaunee on Feb. 10, lost only to the Miners and Westwood this season but got a close game from Gwinn in their first meeting Jan. 9.
Laingsburg
Bath (13-7), Brighton Charyl Stockwell (5-12), Byron (16-4), Dansville (2-18), Laingsburg (17-2), New Lothrop (18-2).
Host Laingsburg’s only losses this season were to reigning Class C runner-up Pewamo-Westphalia, but those two wouldn’t meet again until the Regional Semifinal. However, on the other side of this bracket Genesee Area Conference White champion New Lothrop won 18 straight before losing to Class B contender Goodrich last week, and Byron shared the GAC Blue title. They and Bath, also from Laingsburg’s Central Michigan Athletic Conference, will provide a strong challenger for this District title.
Traverse City St. Francis
Grand Traverse Academy (12-7), Manton (17-3), Maple City Glen Lake (18-2), Traverse City St. Francis (17-3).
Tonight’s opener will be one of the most intriguing in the state regardless of Class. Glen Lake finished second in the Northwest Conference with its two defeats both to Class B Kingsley (see above), and the Lakers beat St. Francis 60-49 on Dec. 6. St. Francis, meanwhile, finished off a Lake Michigan Conference championship with a win over rival Charlevoix last week (also see above). On the other side of the bracket, Manton also is a league champion, in the Highland Conference, and Grand Traverse Academy started 11-3 before running into a rough patch over the last few weeks.
CLASS D
Adrian Lenawee Christian
Adrian Lenawee Christian (19-1), Jackson Christian (7-13), Morenci (16-4), North Adams-Jerome (7-13), Waldron (15-5).
The host Cougars would appear a strong favorite. Their only loss was by a point to Class A Monroe (12-8) on Jan. 9, and they downed possible District Semifinal opponent Morenci 61-42 a week ago. However, Morenci has two 1,000-point scorers and is coming off a Tri-County Conference championship. The Bulldogs must be careful to not look past Southern Central Athletic Association Central champion Waldron tonight, however. The other side of the bracket may have the teams with lesser records, but their third meeting could be a classic after Jackson Christian edged North Adams-Jerome by only two and six points during the regular season.
Battle Creek St. Philip
Athens (16-4), Battle Creek Calhoun Christian (16-4), Battle Creek St. Philip (11-9), Bellevue (18-2), Marshall Academy (0-11).
Bellevue and Athens finished first and second, respectively, in the SCAA West, and are on opposite sides of this bracket. St. Philip also plays in that league, and four of its losses came to those two teams. Calhoun Christian won the Mid-South Conference but won’t be unfamiliar with the competition after playing and falling to all three SCAA teams during the season’s first two weeks. The Cougars are 15-1 since a 1-3 start.
Onaway
Hillman (19-1), Onaway (10-9), Posen (10-8), Rogers City (15-4).
Hillman won its fourth straight North Star League Big Dipper title, and Rogers City has finished runner-up the last three seasons – this time the Tigers won their meetings by three and 13 points. They meet in one District Semifinal on Wednesday, while NSL Little Dipper champion Posen takes on host Onaway, which came in fourth in a Ski Valley Conference featuring at least a pair of possible Class D state contenders.
PHOTO: Laingsburg, here in a win over Fowler on Jan. 25, is among District hosts that could earn championships this week. (Click for more from Varsity Monthly.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.