Countdown to Calvin: Girls District Preview
March 4, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The countdown to this season’s Girls Basketball Finals at Calvin College speeds up significantly beginning tonight.
Teams all over Michigan will start District play culminating in 128 championships at the first level of the tournament this weekend. Check out “Tracking the Tournament” on MHSAA.com for every matchup from all of them, and see below for some of last week’s most eye-popping scores and three Districts in each division that could be especially important pieces to the final puzzle of this girls basketball season.
Countdown to Calvin is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com. To offer corrections or fill in scores we’re missing, email me at [email protected].
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Saginaw Heritage 55, East Lansing 53 – This rematch of last season’s Class A Final also went the Hawks’ way after they won by 21 at Calvin College a year ago.
2. Bloomfield Hills Marian 60, Detroit Mumford 47 – The Detroit Catholic League Tournament champ avenged last season’s loss to Public School League winner Mumford in the Operation Friendship game.
3. Ann Arbor Pioneer 41, Chelsea 39 – The Pioneers’ victory in this matchup of Southeastern Conference divisional champions also was Chelsea’s only loss of the regular season.
4. Wayne Memorial 61, Brighton 48 – East champ Wayne finished the Kensington Lakes Activities Association Tournament having beaten both co-champs of the KLAA West.
5. Stanton Central Montcalm 65, Kent City 42 – The Hornets finished a second straight 20-0 regular season against White Cloud two days later, but 16-win Kent City was one of the toughest obstacles to repeating perfection this winter.
Districts at a Glance
These could be among our most competitive brackets. Host sites are in bold:
DIVISION 1
Detroit Mumford
Detroit Mumford (15-4), Detroit Renaissance (13-6), Oak Park (5-9), Redford Union (13-5), Southfield Arts & Technology (18-1).
With only a Dec. 8 loss to last year’s Class A champion Saginaw Heritage – and by just two points at that – Southfield A&T has been considered a Division 1 favorite all season. Double-digit wins over Flint Carman-Ainsworth and Detroit Country Day, plus a league sweep of Royal Oak, have backed up that expectation. But the Warriors will have to go through the best of the Detroit Public School League West-Town to get through this week. On Wednesday, A&T will face West-Town co-champ Renaissance, which has a few more losses but against teams like Division 2 favorite Detroit Edison (twice) and Mumford (twice). On the other side of this bracket, Mumford shared the West-Town title because of a split with Renaissance in league play, but won the PSL Tournament. But the Mustangs can’t look past Redford Union tonight.
East Grand Rapids
Byron Center (15-5), East Grand Rapids (18-2), East Kentwood (15-4), Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills (5-15), Wyoming (8-12).
Five of seven teams in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red had winning records this season, making it even more impressive that East Kentwood against finished on top for the third straight season. But one of the Falcons’ few losses this winter came by four Dec. 18 to East Grand Rapids, which went on to sweep the O-K Gold and has won 15 straight games. Those two would meet again in this District Final – but of course, it’s not that easy. Byron Center finished second only to unbeaten Hamilton in the O-K Green and would see EGR in a Wednesday District Semifinal showdown.
Lapeer
Davison (11-9), Flint Carman-Ainsworth (15-5), Flint Kearsley (16-4), Flint Southwestern (1-15), Grand Blanc (15-5), Lapeer (6-14).
One of tonight’s most intriguing openers matches up Saginaw Valley League Blue champ Carman-Ainsworth against runner-up Grand Blanc; the Cavaliers won the regular-season meetings by nine and 13. On the other side, Kearsley finished second in a similarly strong Flint Metro League and gets a test right away against Blue third-place finisher Davison. Kearsley’s losses this winter were to league champ Fenton twice, Macomb Dakota and last week to Edison. Carman-Ainsworth also has seen most of the best, falling to Saginaw Heritage, Southfield Arts & Technology, Midland Dow, Michigan Center, and Edison on Thursday by only seven.
DIVISION 2
Bay City John Glenn
Bay City John Glenn (15-5), Essexville Garber (15-5), Freeland (18-2), Midland Bullock Creek (6-13), Saginaw Swan Valley (8-11).
In addition to winning four straight Tri-Valley Conference Central titles, including this season’s, Freeland has won seven straight District championships. But this bracket threatens that streak. On Freeland’s side is Garber, the TVC East champion. Freeland did beat Garber by 25 on Jan. 8, and the Dukes won’t get another chance unless they win tonight against Swan Valley, which they beat by a point in their season opener. On the other side of the bracket, John Glenn finished fourth in the Division 1-strong SVL Red, with three of its five losses to Heritage, Dow and Bay City Western. John Glenn also owns an early two-point win over Garber.
Harper Woods
Detroit Denby (7-6), Detroit Edison (19-1), Detroit Osborn (9-5), Harper Woods (6-7), Harper Woods Chandler Park (16-4), St. Clair Shores South Lake (9-11).
As noted above, and all season many places, 2018 Class C champion Edison is a major favorite to win Division 2 with its only loss to Ohio powerhouse Columbus Africentric by five points Dec 15. The Pioneers spent the rest of the season beating many of the best across the Lower Peninsula. But Chandler Park, a Class C quarterfinalist last season, is an intriguing opponent should they meet Wednesday. The Eagles also have played many of the elite with some impressive results, including closing the regular season with successive wins over Detroit Cass Tech, Flint Hamady and Ypsilanti Arbor Prep.
Whitehall
Fruitport (3-17), Montague (11-9), Muskegon Oakridge (17-3), Muskegon Orchard View (3-13), Spring Lake (11-9), Whitehall (17-2).
Perhaps the most intriguing opener tonight, at least on the west side of the state, pits Oakridge against host Whitehall. Oakridge edged Whitehall by a win to claim the West Michigan Conference title, but Whitehall’s triple overtime victory in their first meeting Jan. 8 ended Oakridge’s 82-game league winning streak (Oakridge won the second meeting by 13 on Feb 8). Spring Lake finished fifth in a competitive O-K Blue and will be waiting Wednesday for whichever team comes out of what’s sure to be an emotional matchup, and Montague could be ready to play spoiler as well in the District Final.
DIVISION 3
Bloomingdale
Bloomingdale (16-4), Gobles (20-0), Kalamazoo Christian (12-6), Kalamazoo Hackett (9-10), Lawton (1-19), Schoolcraft (18-2).
Gobles won the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore and Schoolcraft won the SAC Valley, and they meet tonight in another of the biggest Division 3 openers statewide. Bloomingdale, which tied for second to unbeaten Centreville in the Southwest 10 Conference, awaits the winner. But because those three are on one side of the bracket doesn’t mean the District Final will be an easy victory for whichever team emerges. Hackett knocked Gobles out of the District the last two seasons, while Kalamazoo Christian finished third in the SAC Valley this winter and has won seven of its last 10 games with just a four-point loss to Bloomingdale on Thursday.
Elk Rapids
Elk Rapids (15-5), Grand Traverse Academy (7-5), Manton (16-3), Maple City Glen Lake (18-2), Traverse City St. Francis (10-9).
Manton from the Highland Conference and Glen Lake from the Northwest Conference are league champions, and host Elk Rapids finished second in the Lake Michigan Conference that St. Francis won just a year ago. Manton and Glen Lake get things started tonight in a rematch after Glen Lake won 37-34 on Feb. 6 and also knocked Manton out of the District last season. Elk Rapids awaits in the District Semifinal having lost to both this season. Glen Lake’s only defeat came Dec. 8 by four to Ypsilanti Arbor Prep.
Pewamo-Westphalia
Carson City-Crystal (17-3), Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (16-4), Ithaca (12-6), Pewamo-Westphalia (19-1), Saranac (4-16).
After reaching the Class C Final two years ago and Semifinals last season, P-W has been a major Division 3 favorite all winter. Its only loss was to Edison on Jan 21, and the Pirates came back a week later and beat Country Day, to go with an earlier impressive 20-point win over Dow. But again, there are obstacles this first week of the tournament. NorthPointe Christian awaits Wednesday after winning the O-K Silver. On the other side of the bracket, Mid-State Activities Conference champion Carson City-Crystal has won 15 straight including an 11-pointer over 18-2 Reese.
DIVISION 4
Athens
Athens (16-4), Battle Creek Calhoun Christian (16-4), Battle Creek St. Philip (8-12), Bellevue (20-0), Climax-Scotts (12-8).
Four of these five teams are in the Southern Central Athletic Association West, won by Bellevue with Athens finishing runner-up. Bellevue won their two regular-season games by one in double overtime and then last week by 16. They could meet again in this week’s District Final. Calhoun Christian faces Athens on their side of the bracket Wednesday, with a loss to Bellevue in December as well but a 20-point win over Athens in the season opener Dec. 4.
Chassell
Baraga (16-3), Chassell (13-6), Dollar Bay (0-18), Hancock (11-9), L’Anse (11-9), Lake Linden-Hubbell (7-13).
Chassell was last year’s Class D runner-up and hosts a competitive group this week with the chance for a third meeting in the District Final against Baraga. The Vikings won the Copper Mountain Conference Copper Country title with Chassell second this winter, downing the Panthers by 11 and three points in their regular-season matchups. Hancock and L’Anse finished tied for second and fourth, respectively, in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper and will try to play spoilers on their sides of the bracket. L’Anse handed Baraga one of its few defeats, by 12 on Dec. 14.
Morenci
Adrian Lenawee Christian (18-2), Britton Deerfield (6-13), Morenci (9-11), North Adams-Jerome (4-15), Pittsford (16-4), Waldron (13-5).
Lenawee Christian won Class D a year ago and has been considered a contender throughout this season. But only a few removed from its back-to-back title run in 2016 and 2017, Pittsford remains an opponent no one wants to face. They meet tonight, Lenawee’s only losses having come to Division 3 contenders Grass Lake and Michigan Center while Pittsford is riding a 10-game winning streak after suffering first-half losses to Hudson, Manchester, Bellevue and Athens before winning the SCAA East title. SCAA Central champion Waldron awaits the winner on Wednesday. Morenci on the other side of the bracket has bounced back from a 3-7 start this winter.
Second Half’s weekly “Countdown to Calvin” reports are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Essexville Garber took a 41-40 win over Alma on Dec. 14 and will look to add a District title this week to its league championship won this winter. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.