Marian Encores with Repeat Performance
March 21, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
EAST LANSING – There’s pressure, and then there’s the expectation Bloomfield Hills Marian had for this season.
Nothing less than another Class A championship would suffice for a team returning four starters from last year’s title run.
It just so happens the Mustangs are especially good under pressure – and exceptional at the Breslin Center.
Top-ranked Marian ran its Breslin Finals winning streak to four and championship streak to two Saturday with a 51-37 win over No. 4 DeWitt.
“I feel like it’s the big stadium. I know there’s a lot of pressure to perform well, so I want to go out there and try my hardest,” said Marian sophomore guard Samantha Thomas, who has averaged 14.2 points in four Finals weekend games over the last two seasons. “I try to do that every game, but I guess I just do it more at Breslin.
“Sam’s a real people pleaser. She wants everyone to be happy,” Marian coach Mary Cicerone added, “and she knows we were counting on her big-time today.”
Total, the Mustangs have now won six girls basketball championships – tying with two other schools for second-most in MHSAA history. Their seven appearances in MHSAA Finals are tied for fifth-most among girls basketball programs.
They looked more than comfortable after the opening tip this time. Marian (25-1) scored the first 10 points of the game and held DeWitt without a point until the final 28 seconds of the first quarter.
But it wouldn’t be that easy the rest of the afternoon.
The Panthers (25-2), playing in their first MHSAA Final since 1977 and only a 10-minute drive from home, were led by five seniors who all had spent at least three seasons on varsity. They wouldn’t fold quickly.
In fact, the Panthers took a 17-16 lead on junior Lilly George’s basket with 1:31 to go in the first half.
Twice more Marian built a lead. Twice more the Panthers fought back, taking their final lead at 32-31 with 6:54 to play. But they couldn’t withstand a final rush by the Mustangs and the Thomas sisters in particular.
“It just says that we never want to give up,” DeWitt senior guard Claudia Reid said. “Even though it was a hard loss for us, it was a great journey we went on. We went on it together, and we’ll always remember this.”
Marian outscored DeWitt 20-5 the rest of the way. Samantha Thomas had four of those points and junior sister Bailey scored nine despite both playing with four fouls. The Panthers made only one of 10 shots during those final seven minutes.
“I got my fouls pretty early, so I was sitting on the bench for a long time and it’s hard to watch knowing you’re in foul trouble and can’t play,” Bailey Thomas said. “But once I got to go back out there I was going to give it all I’ve got because I didn’t want to be back on the bench.”
Samantha Thomas finished with 17 points and five steals, while Bailey had 12 points, although both played only 18 minutes. Senior guard Kara Holinski picked up some of the scoring load with 10 points, and senior forward Brittany Gray had seven points and eight rebounds.
Reid had 12 points and four assists for DeWitt, and George added 10 points and 10 rebounds. Junior forward Summer Ward hit a pair of 3-pointers off the bench for the second straight day and finished with 11 points and six rebounds.
Gray, Holinski and senior guard Jaeda Robinson all played on the Marian varsity as freshmen and were part of the program’s only losing season since 1986. But they finished that winter with a District title and went a combined 68-7 over the last three.
“They came every day to practice hard. They worked. Thanksgiving Day, ‘Can we come in and have practice? And I said I’ve gotta cook, so we came in early,” Cicerone said. “When we look at their picture on our gym wall, I’m going to tell everybody that if you want to get back there, you’ve gotta work. These kids were the epitome of what hard work and dedication are about, and that’s their legacy.”
Click for the full box score and video from the postgame press conference.
PHOTOS: (Top) Bloomfield Hills Marian’s Brittany Gray blocks a shot during Saturday’s Class A Final at the Breslin Center. (Middle) Samantha Thomas looks for open teammates while DeWitt’s Abby Nakfoor (42) and Lilly George (44) defend.
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.