Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Talented Multiples Multiplying Success at Elk Rapids, Petoskey
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
March 4, 2022
Big North and Lake Michigan Conference girls basketball players have been suffering from double and triple vision the last couple of years.
It’s not a medical condition. There’s no need to see a doctor for treatment. Players, coaches, referees and announcers just need to focus on the numbers.
No more double vision is anticipated in the Lake Michigan Conference when Elk Rapids steps on the court next winter a third-straight league championship. But there will be triple vision in the Big North Conference though as Petoskey seeks a second-straight title. And, the double and triple vision may continue this spring on the soccer pitch.
The double vision caused by the Elks stems from numbers 4 and 5. The triple vision some suffer further north is the results of numbers 11, 20 and 23.
Twin seniors Monika and Mary Gregorski wore the 4 and 5, respectively, as Elk Rapids picked up its second-straight LMC championship this winter. The Big North champion, Petoskey, had junior triplets Grayson, Eva and Caroline sporting the 11, 20 and 23, respectively.
The soccer rosters this spring may make opponents believe they have vision problems. The twins and the triplets helped their squads make strong showings in the league and postseason last spring.
At one point this basketball season the Gregorskis and the Guys were playing together on the same court as the Elks slipped past the Northmen 41-39 at home.
“It was kind of cool that when Mary and I were on the court at the same time and they (Caroline, Eva and Grayson) were all on the court at the same time, half of the players on the court were twins or triplets,” said Monika Gregorski, who was the Elks’ 3-point specialist. “It was two different families but it made up half of the teams.”
Fans and opponents looking closely at the Elks on the court may be able to differentiate between the twins by their playing. Monika buried 24 3-point shots during the regular season. Mary is the defensive stalwart, earnings an all-conference honor last year with her tenacity.
“They are different players on the floor and different off the floor,” said Elks coach Mike Brown, who had the twins all four years on the varsity. “But they have their togetherness.
“Every shooting drill they’re attached at the hip,” he continued. “They’re both such good two-way players, and they do everything whether it’s rebounding or steals.”
Elk Rapids’ season ended Wednesday night with a loss to Traverse City St. Francis in a Division 3 District Semifinal. The Elks finished 18-3. They were 16-2 last year, falling to powerhouse Glen Lake in the District Final.
Petoskey saw its championship season end Monday night with a loss to league rival Traverse City West. The Guy triplets, who moved from Ohio to Petoskey at the start of the 2020-21 school year, played a huge role in the Northmen’s 14-7 season.
Petoskey coach Bryan Shaw benefitted from the triplets’ move north last season, along with then-senior sister Gabriella.
“It is something to have a transfer or two, but four is a whole different story,” the seventh-year coach said. “Coaching the triplets has been fun.
“As close as they are, they are all their own individual,” he continued. “They have fit right in with teammates, and while coaching we don't really see them as triplets but try to maximize the skill each brings to the game.”
Caroline contributed eight points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.4 blocks per game this season. Grayson added 5.5 points and four rebounds, while Eva averaged nearly three points and more than two rebounds per game.
“All of them are competitive and work hard,” Shaw said of the Guy triplets. “Carol is more of a perimeter player, handles the ball well and shoots it well.
“Grayson is more of the swing-type player from the baseline or wing, but can also post up,” he continued. “Eva is steady. … She handles it when we need her to, defends well and hits open shots.”
Eva is turning her attention to soccer as she prepares for another season as a midfielder for the Northmen. Caroline and Grayson may not play soccer, perhaps choosing to focus on offseason basketball opportunities and conditioning.
The triplets don’t play a high school fall sport, and all list basketball as their favorite.
“It’s a lot of fun because we have that bond and connection,” said Eva. “We have been playing together literally since birth. Like right when we picked up a basketball, we all wanted to play and pursue our dreams together.”
With the Guy triplets on the soccer pitch a year ago, the Northmen dropped a tough decision to TC West in their final regular-season game. A win would have given Petoskey the league title. The score was 0-0 at halftime.
“I have been fortunate to not only have had the opportunity to work with all the girls on the soccer field, but also in my economics courses,” said Zach Jonker, veteran Petoskey boys and girls soccer coach and teacher. “The leadership qualities they have developed in their athletic endeavors are also on display in the classroom.
“They each epitomize what it means to be a student-athlete,” Jonker continued. “Each of the sisters has a distinct positive personality, and collectively they have elevated both the culture of our program and the school climate.”
Elk Rapids girls soccer and boys tennis coach Andrea Krakow, like Brown, also had the pleasure of coaching the twins’ older sisters, Megan and Molly. Megan is the current JV girls basketball coach.
Krakow said she takes the same approach with the twins as she does with any soccer player.
“As far as coaching twins, I have coached them as I would any other players — as individuals,” she said. “Soccer and doubles tennis are both team sports, so all players need to work together.”
“They each have their own personality and are different in several ways, thus I treated them and coached them as individuals.”
Regardless of sport, the twins and triplets believe having siblings on the team is an advantage as they know their teammates’ games inside and out. They all indicate a special joy from playing with their sisters.
“It is really fun playing with her (Monica) because we have, I want to say, is twin telepathy,” Mary Gregorski said. “We always know where each other are on the court.”
Grayson Guy believes it boosts team chemistry.
“I feel like a lot of troubles on teams is chemistry,” she said. “With the three of us going in, we automatically have so much chemistry.
“We saw each other grow as players and as people,” she continued. “It is super nice to get on the court and see a familiar face.”
Caroline Guy points to personal and team growth over the past seasons coming from having triplets on the team.
“It definitely made us connect a lot more over the years – especially this last year,” she said. “Our connection together — and everyone around us on our team — has definitely grown.
“Getting that closer relationship really helps us both inside and outside the sport.”
Elk Rapids and Petoskey are slated to meet on the Northmen’s soccer field April 7. The Elks won 2-0 at home last spring.
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS (1) From left, Grayson, Eva and Caroline Guy with Petoskey girls basketball coach Bryan Shaw. (2) From left, Monika Gregorski, Elks soccer and tennis coach Andrea Krakow, Megan and Mary Gregorski. (3) Monika and Mary chat with Elk Rapids basketball coach Mike Brown. (4) From left, Caroline, Eva and Grayson Guy exit the bus for a basketball game at Traverse City West. (Photos by Tom Spencer.)