Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Senior Standout Aiming to Add to Grass Lake & Family Fame
By
Doug Donnelly
Special for MHSAA.com
August 17, 2021
GRASS LAKE – What will Lexus Bargesser do for an encore?
The Grass Lake senior had an unbelievable junior year, leading the Warriors to their first-ever MHSAA Finals basketball championship, in Division 3, then winning three events to pace Grass Lake’s team title at the Lower Peninsula Division 3 track & field championship meet. She spent her summer on the basketball circuit, traveling the country to compete against top competition.
As she embarks on her senior year of high school, Bargesser is looking forward to having fun, working hard – and bringing home more hardware.
“It was pretty amazing,” she said this summer. “Everything came together and worked out.”
The Bargesser family certainly could have been called the first family of Grass Lake sports over the last few years – in the least for track & field – and Lexus is likely to add a few more highlights during 2021-22. She won’t play a sport for Grass Lake this fall as she’s prepping for basketball season and a hopeful encore to last winter’s achievement. But next month she will begin making college visits and could make a decision before the 2021-22 basketball season begins.
“I don’t really have a timeline,” she said. “I’m looking forward to the season and helping the younger girls on the team grow. I’m excited for it.”
Grass Lake’s Bargesser surge began with 2020 grad Xavier, who’s currently playing basketball at Alma College.
Second-oldest Brennen Bargesser made a splash last school year as a senior both on the basketball court and track, during the spring winning three individual events and running on a first-place relay to lead the boys team to a Finals title as well.
“My older brother and my younger sister are insane athletes,” Brennen said. “I’m the middle child and just wanted to make a name for myself.”
Lexus Bargesser had won the 100 and 200 dashes as a freshman at the 2019 Finals, then burst onto the national prep basketball scene with an amazing summer that saw colleges from across the country start offering her scholarships.
Their parents also are part of the mix. Father David Bargesser coached the Warriors boys basketball team last season and was an assistant to the girls team. Mother Lori Bargesser was the scorekeeper for the boys team.
Sports is the common bond that links the entire family.
“We’re a really close family,” Lori said. “We’ve always just played sports. That’s what we did. We were in the yard from the time I can remember.”
David, who played basketball and golfed in college, and Lori are from upstate New York. They originally moved to Belleville, then landed in Jackson when he accepted a job at the Michigan Department of Corrections. The family has lived in Grass Lake for about 25 years.
“When I got off work, we’d go outside and play basketball or throw the football,” he said. “From the time I can remember, we were always outside playing something.”
Lori said the organized sports started through a local YMCA.
“Xavier was probably 3 or 4 years old,” she said. “David helped coach. Ever since they started, they were always in at least two sports. It was hectic at times, with practice schedules and everything. It was weird when one of them could drive because they could take themselves to practice.”
Xavier, being the oldest, was the first to play organized sports. Brennen soon followed.
“Basketball is very important in my family,” Brennen said.
“As soon as they could walk, they had a basketball in their hands,” Lori said.
Lexus showed her basketball talent and poise from a young age.
“Basketball was the thing that took off for her,” her father said. “I remember realizing how fast she was on the basketball court. I didn’t realize how fast she was.”
One of the first colleges to offer was UCLA.
“Once one started offering, they all took notice,” David said. “It was a fun two weeks where everyone started calling. She’s would get 4-5 calls in an hour and a half.”
The Bargessers might have had the best day for any one family in state track & field history. Along with both Grass Lake teams winning championships, Brennen won the 100 with a time of 11 seconds, the 200 in 22.6 and the 400 in 49.10. He also anchored the 400 relay that came in first with a time of 44.43.
Lexus repeated as LPD3 champ in both the 100 with a time of 12.12 and the 200 in 25.30. (She had won both in 2019, and the 2020 season was canceled due to COVID-19.) She set an LP Division 3 meet record with a time of 55.54 in the 400, then helped the 400 relay place second with a time of 4:11.54.
Between the two siblings were seven first places, one runner-up finish and two team championships.
“When Brennen won that first race, I was so happy for him,” Lori said. “He had worked so hard. Lexus had won before, but he never had. That was a great moment.”
The seeds of those championships were formed during the spring of 2020 when in place of their season Brennen and Lexus trained together almost every day.
“It’s insane to think (about) what we were able to accomplish,” Brennen said. “She’d run the 100 and win it, then I’d run the 100 and win it. I got so excited for her, then I had to run my race. In the conference meet I jumped (early) and was disqualified. I was nervous at the state meet that I would do that again.”
Lexus and Brennen have always been close. Training together brought them closer.
“We spent all summer running together,” Brennen said. “She was my pacer. She was helping me get my times in.”
Their dad was confident that both could accomplish what they set out to do at this spring’s Finals because he had watched their times closely all summer.
“Going into the year, I was checking times and seeing what other kids were doing,” David said. “I knew both had a chance to do it in all three events. It was definitely the goal. It helped them by training together. Brennen really was into lifting, and I think that helped Lexi get into it. The two of them were always training together, pushing each other.”
Doug Donnelly has served as a sports and news reporter and city editor over 25 years, writing for the Daily Chief-Union in Upper Sandusky, Ohio from 1992-1995, the Monroe Evening News from 1995-2012 and the Adrian Daily Telegram since 2013. He's also written a book on high school basketball in Monroe County and compiles record books for various schools in southeast Michigan. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Jackson, Washtenaw, Hillsdale, Lenawee and Monroe counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) The Bargesser family celebrated a championship-loaded Lower Peninsula Division 3 Finals; pictured from left: father David, Brennan, Xavier, Lexus and mother Lori. (Middle) Lexus Bargesser (1) gets a hand up on defense during Grass Lake’s 52-50 win over Kent City in April’s Division 3 Final. She finished with 16 points, 10 rebounds and five steals. (Below) Brennen Bargesser crosses the line first in the 100 at the Finals in June. (Top photo courtesy of the Bargesser family; Brennen Bargesser photo by Jason Ruggles.)