Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Young to Lead BCAM's Next Generation
By
Tom Markowski
Special for Second Half
November 30, 2018
PLYMOUTH – The Basketball Coaches Association of Michigan recently celebrated its 42nd year – and starting Jan. 1, BCAM will welcome just its fourth executive director.
Tom Hursey, 74, will step down as executive director and hand the gavel over to Dan Young, Hursey’s assistant since 2010.
Young, 50, has been on the BCAM Board of Directors since 1999 and a BCAM member since 1994. He was a boys varsity head coach for 15 years spread over three schools and most recently coached the girls program at Salem (2016-18). He also coaches the boys and girls golf teams at Plymouth.
BCAM got its start in the early 1970s when Hursey, then the boys varsity head coach at Midland High; Ron Vondette, then the boys varsity coach at Carrollton; and other coaches in the Midland-Saginaw area formed the Mid-Michigan Basketball Coaches Association. Hursey and Vondette quickly learned that coaches throughout the state were interested in forming an association, and in 1976 the Michigan High School Basketball Coaches Association was formed. Seven years later, the name changed to what it is known as today – BCAM.
The goal of BCAM and its members is simple – to improve and help the sport grow at all levels.
But the challenges Young faces are quite different from those Hursey confronted when he became executive director in 1997. College recruiting has intensified over the past 20 years, and student-athletes transferring from one high school to another also has become more of a concern for BCAM and the Michigan High School Athletic Association.
In addition, Young said there are other topics his association is currently addressing.
“The buzz right now is seeding,” Young said. “And there’s a committee looking at adding two more games to the season, over the holidays (teams are currently limited to 20 regular season games). Tom and I will meet with (a representative from) the MHSAA to discuss the June camps.”
Though just in its preliminary stages, BCAM, in cooperation with the MHSAA, is seriously considering sponsoring a one-day camp for the top players in the state regardless of class. This is in response to the recommendations made last April by a commission led by Condoleezza Rice, the former U.S. Secretary of State, to aid college coaches in the recruitment of student-athletes. Simply put, the NCAA is attempting to limit how much influence AAU basketball has on the recruitment of high school students, and thereby allow high school coaches to have more influence over their players.
These camps, like the MHSAA/BCAM-sponsored Reaching Higher, allow a large number of players, often more than 100, to receive coaching from high school coaches with college coaches in the gym to evaluate. These also feature speakers who address topics such as entrance tests and what it takes to succeed at the next level, academically and athletically.
Young said the next version could be a two-day event, but he does have some concerns.
“We don’t want to disrupt team camps,” he said. “We’d like to run it with the culture of a team camp. It’s still in its early stages, but I think we’d like to get the top 100 or so players, those that are Division I type of players, and have coaches like (Michigan State coach) Tom Izzo, (Michigan coach) John Beilein, Greg Kampe from Oakland and others be there. Maybe it’ll lasts eight hours. Maybe six. We’d have guest speakers, too.
“It’s possible we’d only invite 60 or 70. We’d take the seniors being recruited by Division I schools, as well as the juniors and sophomores.”
The camp discussion is an example of why the transition is sure to be a smooth one. Hursey and Young are of one mind on the vast majority of issues BCAM faces. Though a generation apart, they see eye-to-eye on matters of importance. They discuss which battles should be fought and those they should avoid.
In many ways the transition is similar to that which took place within the MHSAA recently with Mark Uyl taking over for Jack Roberts as executive director. Uyl, 25 years Roberts’ junior, has stated that Roberts has left a legacy, and that he hopes to follow up on that legacy.
“Now that Mark Uyl has taken over, like Dan, a new generation has taken over,” Hursey said.
Hursey and Young are hoping seeding will be introduced within the boys and girls tournaments in the next year or two.
On the subject of transfers, Hursey and Young support the new rule instituted by the MHSAA, which states, in part, that a student who transfers will be ineligible for one full school year at the new school in any sports she or he participated in the previous year at the former school (but eligible immediately in all other sports).
Another concern with regard to transfers is the increasing numbers of top-level players leaving the state and enrolling at prep schools, like Findley Prep in Nevada and others. The most recent top player is Mark “Rocket” Watts who left Old Redford Academy in Detroit and is now enrolled at Spire Academy in Ohio. Watts was considered one of the top candidates for the Mr. Basketball Award, sponsored by BCAM.
Beyond educating players and coaches, and possibly parents, Hursey and Young say there’s little they can do from preventing parents from taking their child out of state.
“It’s a sign of the times,” Hursey said. “Dan and I met with Izzo and we talked for two hours about this. Izzo opened our eyes about it. Take the Old Redford (student). They offer him a beautiful dorm to live in, three square meals and the chance to travel around the country. How are we supposed to compete with that? Izzo said they’re playing 30-to-40 games but that only 10 or so are against the best teams. Those are the ones you see on TV.
“There are a lot of positives for staying with your high school. There’s a lot to be said about high school sports being played at a certain level. And there’s nothing like a Friday night basketball game played in front of 2,000 fans and the place rocking. We just have to keep with what we’re doing. We have to educate the coaches. Some of these fly-by-night operations don’t concentrate on the academic part of school. Yeah, we might lose some of our best players, but there are a lot of good players in this state and there still is great basketball being played. This is not just happening in Michigan. We met with the National (High School) Basketball Coaches Association. It’s a problem throughout the country. How can we compete with millionaires?”
Young said BCAM will continue to do what it does best, and that’s to serve coaches throughout the state and promote and help to improve the game through its many clinics and camps. The website, www.bcam.org, has been improved and updated recently, and provides members and nonmembers alike valuable information.
Tom Markowski is a correspondent for the State Champs! Sports Network and previously directed its web coverage. He also covered primarily high school sports for the The Detroit News from 1984-2014, focusing on the Detroit area and contributing to statewide coverage of football and basketball. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for Oakland, Macomb and Wayne counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Incoming BCAM executive director Dan Young speaks during an event. (Middle) Young and longtime BCAM executive director Tom Hursey, far right, with University of Michigan men’s basketball coach John Beilein. (Photos courtesy of Dan Young.)