Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Right Where She’s Always Been
January 3, 2013
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
It was between seasons for WNBA player Stacey Thomas. She sat in her Northwestern University basketball office, where she worked as the Wildcats' director of basketball operations, and listened to a message that she’d heard somewhere before.
“It was before a game in 2004, when an official for that night’s game – Marvin Sykes – stopped into my office and was chatting up officiating,” Thomas recalls. “He gave me recommendations for different associations, and various contacts, and that's when I actually registered and started reading rules books and studying mechanics.”
Suffice to say, basketball was her life. From her days as a prep standout at Flint Southwestern to a brilliant career at the University of Michigan, and ultimately to the sport’s pinnacle with a six-year career in the WNBA, Stacey Thomas had achieved hoops success beyond her wildest dreams.
Yet, it was two instances off the court – mere blips among the thousands of chance meetings and casual introductions in one’s lifetime – which steered Thomas where she is today. Ironically, it’s still on the basketball court.
The conversation with Sykes was the second moment, and it struck a familiar chord with a message she had heard years earlier as a collegiate player in Ann Arbor.
“The first time I ever thought about officiating was when I was playing at the University of Michigan. A little bug was put in my ear during the preseason when officials come in to talk about officiating, the rules changes, how the game is going to be called; that sort of thing,” Thomas recalls. “It was Patty Broderick (professional and collegiate official who currently serves as Coordinator for the Women's Basketball Officiating Consortium). And at end of that talk she told us how officiating could be a great career and a way to stay in the game.”
In the short term, however, Thomas had other ways to stay in the game. You could even say, she stole her way into extending her playing career. As a Wolverine, Thomas set a Big Ten Conference record with 372 career steals, 157 more than any player in U of M history. Her 1,556 points rank fifth in the Wolverine books.
Those numbers and her work ethic led to six seasons in the WNBA, highlighted by a championship with the 2003 Detroit Shock. Thomas played 175 games over six seasons with four teams. And, when her days in “The League” were done, Thomas’ skills took her overseas to stints in Sweden, Turkey and Latvia over three years.
All the while, however, Thomas had her sights set further down the road, for when the game stopped. As it turns out, it hasn’t stopped at all.
“As the years went by and I decided I was done playing, I thought about what I really wanted to do. I knew I wanted to stay in basketball,” Thomas said. “I was an assistant coach at Central Connecticut State in 2004; it was a good experience, but I liked the administrative job at Northwestern better.”
And, of course, there was always that officiating thing she’d heard about.
“While I was looking, I thought maybe I needed to really explore the officiating option,” Thomas said, and she now enters her sixth year as an MHSAA registered basketball official. “As involved as I was with basketball, it gave me the opportunity to stay in the game and be surrounded by the game. It’s a source of pride, and for me it’s the ongoing concept of getting it right and always striving to be better. I want to be professional, set goals and be the best official I can be.”
In other words, she approached officiating in the same manner she attacked opponents on the basketball floor. It’s still the game she’s known her whole life, just from a different perspective.
“As a player, I was around a lot of different coaches and a lot of different teammates, and they all have their own personalities. Understanding that really helped in the transition to officiating,” Thomas said. “You learn to pick your battles and to take things in stride. You can't take things personally. Some coaches try to rattle you by being vocal and boisterous, and others are sarcastic and joking. As a player or as an official you have to read personalities. Playing the game helped me learn how to react, speak to them, and communicate.”
At times, her fame comes into play as well. It’s not easy to hide when officiating in the same state where Thomas’ star began to rise, and coaches often remind her that she used to be on the floor reacting to, rather than blowing, the whistle.
“I am a very laid-back individual, and it takes a lot for me to get rattled, so I use that to my advantage. I might hear from certain coaches, ‘Come on, you played in The League; they didn't call that in The League,’” she laughs. “I just take it for what it is, whether they are trying to get under my skin, or be humorous. I know as an official to just let them have their say.”
The former prep all-stater who finished second in Michigan’s “Miss Basketball” voting as a senior in 1995, also was a three-time high jump champion and ran cross country at Southwestern. She hasn’t totally left track and field behind either, as she is a registered track & field/cross country official with the MHSAA as well.
Thomas, who now resides in Novi, regularly works boys and girls high school basketball in the Metro Detroit Area, and runs on Michigan’s community college circuit and at the NAIA level in the Wolverine-Hoosier Athletic Conference. The competitive fire that drove her as a player transfers to her uniform in stripes, as she eventually hopes to land NCAA Division I assignments.
“My playing experience helped me learn that you’ve got to pay your dues. You’ve got to work hard and have patience,” Thomas said. “I know that there are plays I have to still see over and over and over, so I will get them right on a consistent basis. I need to get to the camps, continue to learn the rules book, and my time will come. The more games, the more reps, the more situations, the more you learn.”
It’s a quality and regimen she tries to impress upon up-and-coming officials, and she also expresses that it’s important the many benefits of officiating aren’t lost in the quest for top games.
“I’ve developed so many friendships and made so many friends by getting into officiating. What better way to have an impact on a sport?” Thomas asks. “I tell people to have fun, enjoy it and work hard. Most of all, I always tell them being compensated is a bonus for doing something you love to do.
“Sometimes the younger officials get too caught up in what other officials are doing,” she continued. “Who’s got the big games, the pay rates, and so on. I played in The League, and I knew going in I wouldn't just come in and have the best games. You’ve got to put the time in.”
Thomas has noticed impatience not only among young officials, but in the playing ranks as well.
“On certain levels, the speed and physical nature of the game has increased,” she said. “There’s all this talent, but at the same time the players have become a little bit lazier compared to back in the day. Years ago, kids had more passion for the game, because nothing was given to them. They were better listeners to coaches, peers and parents.”
When Thomas shares the floor with today’s high schoolers, they are definitely getting her best effort and maximum attention. She understands what’s at stake, and what the high school game is all about. It’s why she accepts games nearly every night of the week during the season, and why she relishes those weeknights in the gyms.
“First of all, it's a special time in their lives, and it’s their turn to shine and to play at a high level and to be seen by their classmates and by the community,” Thomas says. “There’s nothing like that seven o’clock rivalry game, with a big crowd packing the gym, and it’s a close game and you are right there in the fire. It’s an adrenaline rush that pumps you up. Those are the games you strive for.”
Thomas has been on the floor for plenty of those games, and will have countless more in the future. That’s what makes it most special to know where she was this June when she could have been elsewhere. Thomas spent some time at the Healthy Kids Club in Detroit, helping director Mariah Lowson with basketball leagues for kids who ranged from 8 years old to high school age. Officials paid $20 to attend the camp and gain experience that will help them down the road. It certainly doesn’t hurt to see someone there like Thomas helping out.
“The nice thing is, it’s younger kids in the league, so young officials would not be intimidated,” Thomas said. “The motivation for them is to do well in these games, understanding that they can make money doing peewee leagues while continuing to learn. There were some kids as young as 13 or 14 years old, up to 17 years old, working games.”
And there was Thomas, right on the court as she’s always been.
PHOTO: Stacey Thomas drives to the basket as a member of the WNBA's Detroit Shock.
NOTE: This is the seventh installment in the series "Making – and Answering – the Call" detailing the careers and service of MHSAA officials. Click the links below to view others or the blue "Officials" tag at the top of the this story for the entire series plus other Second Half coverage on the subject.