Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Chippewa Valley Leads Macomb Charge

By Tom Markowski
Special for Second Half

November 8, 2018

CLINTON TOWNSHIP – Since winning the Division 2 title in 2001, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley has played in the shadow of traditional Macomb County powers Macomb Dakota, Romeo, Sterling Heights Stevenson and Utica Eisenhower. 

Before this season, Chippewa Valley’s record against those four schools over the last 17 years was 26-52. The Big Reds did own a 10-8 record against Stevenson, but twice Stevenson reached MHSAA Finals while Chippewa Valley’s best showing since its championship season was a Semifinal appearance in 2003.

That trend started to change in 2017 as Chippewa Valley went 4-1 against these teams (including a second win over Dakota in the playoffs). This season, the Big Reds took another step forward posting a 6-0 mark and capturing their first outright title in the Macomb Area Conference Red.

And for the first time in program history, Chippewa Valley is 11-0. The Big Reds were 9-0 in 1975, the first season the MHSAA sponsored state playoffs, but did not qualify for the postseason (only four teams in each of the four classifications were selected for the playoffs that first year).

Scott Merchant is in his 10th season as head coach at Chippewa Valley, and the Big Reds have made the playoffs eight times during his tenure. These past two seasons have been his best by far. Last season, Chippewa Valley finished 10-2 losing to Detroit Cass Tech, 32-26, in a Division 1 Regional Final.

Most expected a rematch of that game this week. But Dearborn Fordson (10-1) upset Cass Tech last week, 41-14, and Chippewa Valley will host Fordson in the Division 1 Region 4 Final at 7 p.m. Friday. The teams have met just once before – and that game, in 2003, also took place in a Regional Final with Chippewa Valley claiming a 30-12 victory.

Merchant’s team is experienced, confident and loaded with talent. He has four three-year starters and eight seniors starting on defense.

“Dakota set the bar for the whole conference,” Merchant said of Chippewa Valley’s sister school (both are in the Chippewa Valley school system) and biggest rival. “In the mid- to late 2000s they had like five or six Regional titles. Our streak of losing to Dakota started in ’04, and I didn’t get here until ‘09. It was huge for us to win in 2014. It was the first time we beat them in 10 years. That was a big weight being lifted.”

When a team loses so often to another, especially a rival, the losses and the years often run together. For the record, here’s how bad it got for the Big Reds:

Beginning with a 7-0 loss to Dakota in a Division 1 Regional Final in 2004, the Big Reds lost 16 consecutive games to Dakota, and only six of the 16 were by 10 or fewer points. A 28-27 victory in a 2014 District Final ended this streak.

One loss stung most. In 2013, both teams were 7-0 and state-ranked. Dakota won 52-7.

“To this day I can’t explain what happened,” Merchant said. “It was one of the most disappointing losses I’ve had. A lot of it was mental.”

The tables have turned. Chippewa Valley has won five of the last six in the series and is two wins this month from reaching what would be the program’s second MHSAA Final.

The Big Reds’ success last season gave the players confidence and also fed their appetite for more. The 2017 team scored a school-record 463 points, and this season Chippewa Valley has scored 445.

The productivity is similar, but the means by which the offense this season has been successful is different. There’s a difference in personality. Last year Chippewa Valley was more of a finesse team that concentrated on the passing game. This team is more physical and its offense is geared more for the run, which is often more effective in November playoff games.

Quarterback Tommy Schuster is a three-year starter who threw for 3,100 yards over his first two seasons. His numbers (1,400 yards) are down a tad this season, but he’s thrown 20 touchdown passes and just one interception. Schuster also is carrying the ball more as he showed last week by rushing for 60 yards in the 51-10 victory over Dakota.

This added dimension has become a fine complement to the Big Reds’ top two running backs, Andre Chenault and Ja’Von Kimpson. Chenault is the team’s leading rusher with 888 yards and 13 touchdowns on 107 carries while Kimpson, who also starts at cornerback, is more of a featured back in 3rd down situations. He’s scored nine touchdowns rushing and one receiving.

“Our run game has been dominant all season,” Schuster said. “The offensive line has gotten better and better. It took a little time. They’re all (first-year) starters, and they’re confident now.”

Replacing the entire offensive line was the main concern for Merchant and his staff coming into this season. With just one senior, this group grew up fast. In the opener, Chippewa Valley trailed Saline 13-0 before the offense began to click and the Big Reds won 31-26. Senior captain Ryan Cyrowski, the center, is the leader and juniors Charles Wesley, the left tackle, and Donovan McBride, the right guard, have developed nicely. The Big Reds rushed for an-eye-popping 445 yards last week.

Merchant’s top two players could well be linebacker Marcel Lewis, who also sees time at tight end, and David Ellis. Ellis rarely comes off the field as he starts at receiver and defensive back and is a dangerous kick returner. He has 33 tackles on defense, five rushing touchdowns, six receiving scores, three more on kickoff returns and he’s returned a punt for a touchdown.

“We don’t have any weaknesses,” Schuster said. “This team, all year, hasn’t panicked. We’re ready for whatever happens. Last year’s team was like that, too. The reason we’ve been so successful (the past two seasons) is we have great players and great coaches.

“Playing quarterback on this team is a lot of fun. There’s so many options. If the run game isn’t working, we have no problem throwing the ball.

“I’ve grown up a lot over these three years. I’ve gotten to work on my speed, and I’m able to help the younger guys out too. It’s easier for me now. There’s nothing that’s new to me.”

The experience Schuster and many of his teammates have is a big reason Chippewa Valley has come out on top in a number of close games. In addition to the victory over Saline, the Big Reds held on to defeat Romeo (41-34) and Dakota (24-17) during the regular season. All three of those games were on the road.

“We’ve had way more close games this year than last,” Merchant said. “It’s been great to see the program grow.”

Tom Markowski is a columnist and directs website coverage for the State Champs! Sports Network. He previously covered primarily high school sports for the The Detroit News from 1984-2014, focusing on the Detroit area and contributing to statewide coverage of football and basketball. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for Oakland, Macomb and Wayne counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Chippewa Valley’s defensive front lines up against Utica during a 49-0 Week 9 win. (Middle) David Ellis (8) follows his blockers into an opening against Utica Eisenhower in a 34-7 first-round playoff victory. (Photos courtesy of the Chippewa Valley athletic department.)