Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 3 Preview
November 7, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The first MHSAA football finalists of this fall will celebrate this weekend, as four 8-player Semifinals will determine which teams move on to Marquette’s Superior Dome a week from Saturday.
And 64 11-player teams have completed half of the “Drive for Detroit,” with this weekend’s Regional Finals setting up next weekend’s Semifinals and opportunities to visit Ford Field for extended Thanksgiving.
Below are the matchups in all 10 divisions this weekend, with a quick look at one from each 11-player bracket and all four 8-player Semifinals. We suggest seeing them live, of course. But we have more opportunities to watch online as well.
This week’s FOX Sports Detroit Prep Zone matchups are Dearborn Fordson at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley and Clarkston at Lapeer in Division 1, and Warren DeLaSalle at Port Huron Northern in Division 2. Those all will stream free of charge on FOXSportsDetroit.com and on the FOX Sports app. At least five more games will be viewable on MHSAA.tv, either live with subscription or free after 72 hours.
Games are Friday unless noted. “Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid.
Division 1
Dearborn Fordson (10-1) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (11-0)
The Tractors showed they’re capable of beating anyone with last week’s 41-14 stunner of Detroit Cass Tech. Fordson is scoring 38 points per game while playing seven against playoff teams, and is a three-point Week 6 loss to Belleville from being undefeated. Chippewa Valley is the next giant up, coming off a 51-10 rematch win over Macomb Dakota and giving up only 15 points per game despite also playing seven against playoff qualifiers.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Clarkston (9-2) at Lapeer (11-0), West Bloomfield (9-2) at Belleville (11-0). SATURDAY Rockford (7-4) at Saline (10-1).
Division 2
Portage Northern (9-2) at Muskegon Mona Shores (10-1)
The Huskies have won seven straight games and last week celebrated their first District title. The defense has shined; Northern is giving up 12 points per game and allowed more than 21 once, in a Week 4 loss to East Lansing. The Sailors beat Jenison last week for the second time this season, extending the margin from seven points in the first meeting to 39 in the rematch. Averaging 44 points per game, they may present the toughest offensive challenge the Huskies have faced.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Livonia Franklin (7-4) at Birmingham Groves (9-2), Midland (8-3) at Walled Lake Western (8-3), Warren DeLaSalle (9-2) at Port Huron Northern (10-1).
Division 3
Cedar Springs (10-1) vs. Muskegon (11-0) at Grand Haven
After eliminating Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold co-champs East Grand Rapids and Grand Rapids Christian the last two weeks, Muskegon takes on O-K White winner Cedar Springs. The Red Hawks last week won their first District title since 2000 and boast a defense giving up 10.5 points per game. The opportunity to make history in this one is even greater – the reigning Division 3 champ Big Reds have won 25 straight games and scored at least 42 points nine weeks running.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Parma Western (10-1) at Zeeland East (10-1), Detroit Martin Luther King (9-2) at Allen Park (9-2). SATURDAY Farmington (8-3) vs. DeWitt (11-0) at Lansing Catholic.
Division 4
Escanaba (9-2) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-1), Saturday
Grand Rapids Catholic Central has fared well against the Eskymos the last two seasons, winning their 2016 Regional Final 34-0 and last season’s Semifinal 24-0 on the way to claiming Division 4 championships both years. But Escanaba can find encouragement in a couple of places. The 24 points in last year’s meeting were the fewest GRCC scored in the playoffs. And four of the Escanaba offense’s six highest-scoring games this fall have come over the last five weeks.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY St. Clair (9-2) at Williamston (9-2). SATURDAY Holland Christian (8-3) at Edwardsburg (11-0), Chelsea (8-3) at Farmington Hills Harrison (8-3).
Division 5
Reed City (11-0) at Saginaw Swan Valley (11-0), Saturday
Reed City is playing in a Regional Final for the fourth time in five seasons, and as an undefeated team for the second time in three. Adding to that familiarity with the big stage is a familiar foe – Swan Valley defeated the Coyotes last year 29-14 in a Semifinal. Reed City has lost only three regular season games this decade, but there’s definitely something different this fall – notably a defense that is giving up 6.2 points per game. That unit will be key against a Vikings team scoring 43 points per and giving up only 8.9.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Detroit Denby (9-2) at Marine City (9-2). SATURDAY Hudsonville Unity Christian (9-2) vs. Kalamazoo United (11-0) at Vicksburg, Frankenmuth (9-2) at Portland (11-0).
Division 6
Montague (9-2) at Schoolcraft (9-2)
The Eagles are playing for their first trip to the Semifinals since 2001, and have been in the mix making the Regional Final in 2013 and suffering their only losses of the season in District Finals in 2012 and 2016. Schoolcraft has played eight games against playoff teams this fall and still is averaging 45 points per game. Montague, playing in its second straight Regional Final, is averaging 44 points per contest with seven against playoff teams – and losses to only undefeated Division 5 contenders Reed City and Portland. Schoolcraft’s defeats also came to Division 5 playoff teams; Kalamazoo United is still alive.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Kingsley at Traverse City St. Francis (11-0), Blissfield (7-4) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-0). SATURDAY Montrose (9-2) at Flint Hamady (11-0).
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia (11-0) vs. New Lothrop (10-1) at Chesaning
An interesting note about P-W’s back-to-back Division 7 championship runs the last two seasons: Of six playoff games not including Semifinals, only three were played at home. The Pirates had to win District and Regional titles on the road last season, and beat the Hornets 35-14 to clinch the former. New Lothrop beat the first (Cass City) and second-place (Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker) teams from the Greater Thumb Conference West the last two weeks to set up this rematch.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Roscommon (10-1) at Lake City (11-0), Riverview Gabriel Richard (7-4) at Madison Heights Madison (11-0). SATURDAY Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (9-2) at Cassopolis (11-0).
Division 8
Breckenridge (11-0) at Ishpeming (11-0), Saturday
The Huskies will head north seeking their first Regional title and hoping a defense giving up just 4.3 points per game can lock down an Ishpeming offense scoring 42. Breckenridge also made the Regional Final last season, in Division 7, losing to Lake City by just two points. The Hematites shut out 2017 semifinalist Iron River West Iron County for the second time in five weeks to win the District title.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Flint Beecher (8-3) at Harbor Beach (10-1). SATURDAY Mendon (7-4) at Holton (7-4), Detroit Southeastern (8-3) vs. Reading (11-0) at Hillsdale High School.
8-Player Division 1
SEMIFINALS
AuGres-Sims (11-0) at Pickford (11-0), Saturday
Before last week, these teams stacked up even more similarly than their records might indicate – Pickford’s six-point win over Suttons Bay in their Regional Final was its first close game since Week 3, and AuGres-Sims hasn’t allowed an opponent to get closer than 38 points all fall. Quarterback Caden Zeien has thrown for 1,928 yards and 34 touchdowns with only one interception for AuGres-Sims (plus run for 673 yards and 10 TDs), while his Pickford counterpart James Storey has thrown for 1,527 yards and 28 touchdowns and run for 782 yards and 15 scores. The Panthers also made the Semifinals the last two years and this will be their fifth time total trying to make the MHSAA Finals for the first time. For the Wolverines, this Semifinal is a first.
Colon (10-1) at Morrice (11-0)
Morrice is coming off its first Regional title since 1996 – although the Orioles did give up their first points since mid-September last week to Wyoming Tri-unity Christian in a 44-14 win. They are allowing 5.4 per game points overall while gaining nearly 360 yards in total offense. Colon’s lone defeat was to Tri-unity, 22-14 three weeks ago, but the Magi rebounded quickly to make their first Semifinal. Quarterback Hunter Nowak leads the Orioles' attack with 1,757 yards and 30 touchdowns rushing and 517 yards passing. Colon boasts a pair of 1,000 backs in Brandon Crawford (1,607 yards, 21 TDs) and quarterback Philip Alva (1,035/16 rushing, 461/8 passing).
8-Player Division 2
SEMIFINALS
Cedarville (7-4) at Rapid River (8-3)
Three of seven Great Lakes Conference East teams are still alive for MHSAA championships, and these two met in Week 7 with Rapid River claiming a 28-20 win to help lock up third place in the league. Rapid River downed reigning 8-player Division 2 champ Crystal Falls Forest Park last week and will be aware of the possibilities of a rematch disappointment – the Rockets opened these playoffs by beating Engadine by two after losing to the Eagles by 18 only two weeks prior. Cedarville is rolling again, having won its two playoff games by a combined 88-6 score, and led by quarterback Tristan Masuga (1,730 yards/21 TDs passing).
Portland St. Patrick (7-4) at Onekama (9-2), Saturday
The Shamrocks seemed all but forgotten a month ago and tied for fifth in the Southern Central Athletic Association A. But with four straight wins they’re back in the Semifinals for the second straight season and looking to get back to Superior Dome after finishing runner-up in Division 2 a year ago. Onekama, meanwhile, will be playing in its first Semifinal to continue an impressive five-year climb. The Portagers are giving up only 7.4 points per game and lost this fall only to Division 1 playoff teams Tri-unity and Suttons Bay – by a combined seven points. They've run for nearly 1,900 yards over nine games (two wins were forfeits) with Aaron Powers averaging 11.5 yards per carry and Ben Acton 8.9.
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PHOTO: A Reed City ball carrier breaks through an opening during the Coyotes’ 38-7 District Final win over Clare last week. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)