Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Week 3 Preview
September 6, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
From Calumet at the top of the U.P. to Michigan’s southern border, tonight’s weather is forecast as ideal for high school football.
And there are plenty of matchups to match.
It’s only the third week of the season, of course, but we could look back at this as the week that decided some of the state’s most high-profile league titles – and previewed some of the most anticipated playoff matchups down the road.
Games below are tonight unless noted; there also are 11 games Saturday featuring Michigan teams. Check out the MHSAA Score Center for the full schedule and results as games are completed. MHSAA.tv will broadcast nine games tonight, including three noted below.
“Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid.
Bay & Thumb
Saginaw Swan Valley (2-0) at Freeland (2-0)
The Vikings’ early schedule is loaded; they opened with a 21-12 win over Cedar Springs (7-4 last season) and last week won 56-20 over Frankenmuth (12-1 in 2017). Now the reigning Division 5 runner-up gets Tri-Valley Conference Central rival Freeland, which has made the playoffs 10 straight seasons and fell to Swan Valley only 21-14 a year ago. The Falcons are off to a nice start as well with a three-point victory over Marshall and 23-pointer over Carrollton that avenged last season’s District loss.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Davison (2-0) at Flint Carman-Ainsworth (2-0), Ubly (2-0) at Sandusky (2-0), Flint Hamady (2-0) at Flint Beecher (1-1), Carrollton (1-1) at Millington (1-1).
Greater Detroit
Farmington Hills Harrison (2-0) at Oak Park (2-0)
Many eyes are on Harrison as the 18-time MHSAA champion plays its final season before the school closes next spring. This matchup could determine if the Hawks are league champions one more time; last year, Harrison split the Oakland Activities Association White title with both Oak Park and Birmingham Groves. Oak Park beat Groves last week and Utica Eisenhower in Week 1 and will present the Hawks’ their first major challenge after back-to-back 41-0 victories. Harrison won last year’s meeting 17-14.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (2-0) at Utica Eisenhower (1-1), St. Clair (1-1) at Madison Heights Madison (2-0), Canton (1-1) at Plymouth (2-0), Sterling Heights Stevenson (2-0) at Romeo (1-1).
Mid-Michigan
Grand Ledge (0-1) at East Lansing (2-0)
East Lansing is regarded as one of the intriguing teams emerging early from the capital area, especially after avenging a 2017 loss by defeating Dearborn Divine Child on the road last week. Grand Ledge had to replace a giant senior class this fall and opened with a loss to Hudsonville before a bye in Week 2 – but the Comets are still three-time reigning Capital Area Activities Conference Blue champions. East Lansing shared that title in 2016, and tonight could show itself to be the biggest obstacle to newcomer DeWitt becoming the next league champion.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Williamston (2-0) at Fowlerville (2-0), Lansing Sexton (0-2) at Portland (2-0), Harrison (1-1) at Clare (2-0), Leslie (1-1) at Lake Odessa Lakewood (1-1).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Alpena (2-0) at Gaylord (2-0)
These two have played in the Big North Conference together for nearly two decades, but it’s been a long time since this matchup potentially meant this much. Alpena is 2-0 for the first time since 2004 – the last time it won more than four games in a season – and got here in part with a Week 1 win over 2017 Division 4 semifinalist Escanaba. Gaylord opened at Lansing Sexton and came back with a win and then went to 2-0 last week by beating a Gladstone team that like the Big Reds also made the playoffs a year ago. Gaylord, which last made the postseason in 2015, has won four of the last five against the Wildcats.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Traverse City St. Francis (2-0) at Benzie Central (2-0), Kingsley (2-0) at Grayling (1-1), Lake City (2-0) at McBain (1-1), Beaverton (1-1) at Houghton Lake (1-1).
Southeast & Border
Ida (2-0) at Brooklyn Columbia Central (2-0)
A loss to Columbia Central foiled Ida’s attempt at a league title three-peat last season, and both were among four teams to represent the Lenawee County Athletic Association in the playoffs. Last week’s 28-22 win over reigning two-time Genesee Area Conference Red champion Lake Fenton was a good sign the Bluestreaks will be back in the mix. Columbia Central’s Week 1 shutout of reigning Cascades Conference co-champion Napoleon means the Eagles will be there too – with tonight playing a big part in how the rest of the LCAA race unfolds.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Reading (2-0) at Concord (2-0), Hudson (2-0) at Dundee (2-0), Coldwater (1-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (2-0), Addison (1-1) at Michigan Center (2-0).
Southwest Corridor
Portage Central (1-1) at Portage Northern (2-0)
Kalamazoo Central took some bite out of this rivalry matchup last week by handing Portage Central an unanticipated 30-14 defeat. But there’s still plenty of story here. Portage Northern has its own stadium for the first time after 53 years of playing home games at Portage Central, and is coming off avenging a 2017 loss by shutting out Stevensville Lakeshore last week. Central has beaten Northern in four straight, and ending that streak would be a memorable way for the Huskies to celebrate their new home.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Paw Paw (2-0) at Edwardsburg (2-0), Three Oaks River Valley (2-0) at Martin (1-1), Fennville (2-0) at Delton Kellogg (2-0), Mattawan (2-0) at St. Joseph (1-1).
Upper Peninsula
Ishpeming Westwood (2-0) at Calumet (2-0)
The Patriots are making it difficult to focus elsewhere in the Upper Peninsula. They’ve followed up a school record nine wins in 2017 with a pair this fall including 34-7 last week over Iron Mountain. But Westwood should receive its toughest challenge yet from Calumet, a playoff team 12 of the last 13 seasons. This will be the first meeting between the teams; they also are in a league for the first time, as two of the contenders in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference “large school” division.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Norway (2-0) at Ishpeming (2-0), Gladstone (1-1) at Menominee (0-2), Hancock (2-0) at Negaunee (0-2), SATURDAY Detroit Loyola (2-0) at Escanaba (1-1).
West Michigan
Holland West Ottawa (2-0) at Rockford (1-1)
West Ottawa’s record-setting 2017 included its first win over Rockford since 2002 and then a second defeat of the Rams in a Division 1 District Final. The Panthers are off to another great start, following last season’s 10 victories with two more against Stevensville Lakeshore and last week by a point over Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central. Rockford opened with a loss to Illinois power Wilmette Loyola, but bounced back in a big way with a 36-0 shutout of Lowell – no doubt picking up momentum to carry into this highly anticipated rematch.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Hudsonville (2-0) at Grand Haven (2-0), Zeeland East (2-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (1-1), Manistee (2-0) at Ludington (2-0), Muskegon (2-0) at East Grand Rapids (1-1).
8-Player
Pickford (2-0) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (1-1)
Pickford’s only loss last season came by two points to Forest Park in an 8-Player Division 2 Semifinal – Forest Park went on to win the championship game by 42. The Panthers have outscored their first two opponents by a combined 114-7 and meet a Forest Park team this time that was stunned by Eben Junction Superior Central in their opener but bounced back with a big win against Carney-Nadeau. These two aren’t in the same league, so this doesn’t mean anything to those hopes – but it definitely could be a preview of a postseason rematch of much significance.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Morrice (2-0) at Mayville (2-0), Camden-Frontier (2-0) at Portland St. Patrick (2-0), Battle Creek St. Philip (2-0) at Webberville (2-0), Bellaire (1-1) at Onekama (2-0).
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PHOTO: A Grand Blanc ball carrier works against the Saginaw Heritage defense during the Bobcats' 27-20 win last week over the Hawks. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)