Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
Bellaire's 'Captain' Robinson Making Senior-Year Impact Sure to Last
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
February 18, 2022
Oh, the glory days.
When Paul Koepke took over Bellaire basketball, he stepped into some mighty big coaching shoes.
He’s got the Eagles on the right track as they work to return to being a powerhouse program. The culture almost fits the visions he’s had since taking over for legendary and hall of fame coach Stan Sexton. They’re 8-7 overall and 6-5 in Ski Valley League play.
But today he’s preparing to lose his only senior starter, Cole Robinson, perhaps better known as The Captain. Robinson may not be as famous as the professional athletes whose careers led to being known as The Captain — baseball’s Derek Jeter and hockey’s Steve Yzerman —but he is to the locals.
“I have a bunch of freshmen,” noted Koepke, who’s been around the Eagles since the early 2000s as a middle school and varsity assistant coach. “I couldn’t ask for a better set up than having him as my captain.”
Robinson, a three-sport star for the Eagles, joined Bellaire’s 22-2 varsity team his freshman year as the postseason run ended with a 50-41 upset loss to Suttons Bay in the Regional. That loss ended a string of deep postseason runs covering decades. It was Koepke’s first year at the helm.
Today the Eagles are preparing to host Fife Lake Forest Area with their captain possibly on the sideline. He suffered an ankle injury in this week’s 44-32 win over Pellston. Koepke helped the senior guard off the floor after his first career injury.
He saw a glimpse of how things could be next year without The Captain, but he loved how his Eagles responded and how Robinson handled it.
The Eagles immediately went into a “win it for Cole” mode. Bellaire hopes tonight’s game will be the only game the 6-foot, 205-pounder needs to sit for a full recovery.
“Cole was on the bench cheering like a mad man after the injury,” Koepke said. “The kids were high-fiving him, and he was coaching kids up.
“We probably had better effort after that,” he continued. “We competed at a higher level, and I think we won that one for Cole.”
The injury didn’t hamper his leadership skills a bit. The Eagles beat Pellston with the same freshmen and sophomores Robinson’s had under his wings for some time.
Robinson has high hopes the young players will help win a District championship like the Eagles regularly did during their glory days. He has yet to win a District title – in any sport – during his years at Bellaire. He’s got this basketball season and his senior baseball season to experience it.
He did experience a first earlier this basketball season. Bellaire beat Gaylord St. Mary 69-62 on Feb. 8, the first win Cole and his senior teammates had experienced over the Snowbirds in any sport.
Robinson, who admits football is his favorite sport followed by baseball, likes helping his young teammates on the court. And he can’t wait to see them on the baseball field.
The Eagles have racked up more basketball wins this season than the previous two combined.
“For us, this is a big improvement,” Robinson said. “We’re a really young team.
“I think we’re going to surprise a few teams in the Districts,” he continued. “It’s going to be a tough one.”
Ellsworth, last year’s champion, will likely get the top seed in the 2022 tournament, hosted by Central Lake. Boyne Falls and Gaylord St. Mary also will vie for the title. The Eagles lost to Ellsworth 70-52 in the season opener. The freshmen were coming off just a two-game middle school season due to COVID-19 cancellations.
“Our record is starting to show we’re not just a bunch of freshmen just being freshmen,” Koepke said. “We’re starting to get pretty good.”
Bellaire starts three freshmen, a sophomore and The Captain.
“This man is selfless,” Koepke said about Robinson. “He’s the first one to come to me when I get there (to practice or games) to give me a fist bump and ask me how my day is going.
“Captain means a lot of things. He’s the last one to go off the bus. He cleans the bus. He’s the last one to leave the locker room.”
Robinson is averaging nearly six points and three assists per game. He also hauls in eight rebounds per contest. He’s coming from an outstanding football season as the Eagles’ tight end, tackle and defensive end. He had two touchdown receptions in the fall.
Jayden Hansen, a freshman, leads the team in scoring at more than 15 per game. Another freshman, Drake Koepke, averages 12 points. Hanson is among Northern Michigan’s leading rebounders. Koepke, the coach’s son, is among the area’s leaders in steals.
“We’re always looking for the third scorer,” Koepke said.
But the starting lineup is set.
“We finally kind of found out these are our guys, our lineup,” Koepke said. “We’re growing now.
“We understand who we are, and now we have to fix some things we struggle with,” he continued. “Right now we have a great attitude, and we are peaking.”
Robinson goes back a long way in Bellaire. He was a water boy for the varsity team when his father, Brock, was the Eagles’ head football coach. Brock died suddenly in 2020, and had served as The Captain’s youth football and baseball coach and high school football coach his freshmen and sophomore seasons.
The younger Robinson also lost his 2020 baseball season due to COVID. But he has persevered. Today he’s a regular on the court coaching youth basketball and his youthful teammates.
“You can say it’s been a little tough —I obviously miss him of course,” The Captain said. “He loved sports just as much as I do.
“I think about him usually before most sporting events – especially football games I’d think about him beforehand.”
Coach Koepke, who also assisted Coach Robinson in football, is amazed by his captain’s career and his contribution to the Eagles’ success.
“He is always a positive person,” Koepke said. “There are so many things he does.”
If the Eagles don’t make the great run this season as they have in the past, the veterans they’ll have next season along with others impacted by Robinson should help them return to the glory days.
“You are going to be a better person because you met Cole,” Koepke said. “That’s basically what Cole is.
“We’re all going to miss Cole. He’s made me a better person for sure.”
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Bellaire’s Cole Robinson looks for an open teammate during a game against Johannesburg-Lewiston. (Middle) Robinson works to bring down a Bear Lake ball carrier. (Below) Robinson works with players in Bellaire’s youth program on their shooting form. (Top and middle photos courtesy of the Antrim Review; below photo courtesy of the Bellaire athletic department.)