Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR

August 6, 2019

By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor

As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”

The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.

This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.

“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.

“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”

MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.

What is the basic MPR formula?

MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.

MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)

The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.

What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?

MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.

MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.

Why use the MPR formula?

Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.

With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.

CALCULATING MPR

What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?

You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).

How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?

Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.

How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?

Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).

For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.

OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.

How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?

Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.

Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.

How often is MPR calculated?

MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.

How much will my MPR change throughout the season?

You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.

My score is missing. How can it be added?

This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.

What are some common errors when calculating MPR?

When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.

What happens if a game is cancelled?

Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.

USING THE WEBSITE

Where can I find game scores?

A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.

“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”

How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?

Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.

The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).

You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.

How do I read the school schedule page?

The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.

Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.

The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.

PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.

Breslin Bound: 2024-25 Girls Report Week 9

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

February 3, 2025

Several girls basketball leagues across Michigan are being paced this season not just by a couple of top teams locally, but by top local teams that also have worthwhile statewide aspirations.

MI Student Aid

We saw several of that caliber of matchup this past week, with many more on the way, and we’ve highlighted some of the most intriguing below in our looks back and forward as we continue to push toward March.

“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.

Week in Review

The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:

1. Wayne Memorial 57, Belleville 52 Wayne (10-5) took over first place alone in the Kensington Lakes Activities Associate East with this stunner, handing Belleville (14-1) its only defeat.

2. Negaunee 45, Gladstone 28 Negaunee (15-0) remains undefeated after handing Gladstone (12-1) its only loss, and they meet again Feb. 27.

3. Rockford 45, Grand Haven 34 The Rams (15-1) strengthened their spot atop the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red by finishing a season sweep of Grand Haven (12-2) – no other opponent has defeated the Buccaneers this winter.

4. Tecumseh 56, Chelsea 39 Tecumseh (12-1) also finished a season sweep of a league rival, in the Southeastern Conference White, and remains the only team to defeat Chelsea (11-2).

5. Yale 69, Armada 62 Yale (13-1) moved into first alone in the Blue Water Area Conference by handing Armada (12-1) its only defeat in league play and overall. They meet again Feb. 20.

Watch List

With an eye toward March, here are two teams in each division making sparks:

DIVISION 1

Northville (10-5) The Mustangs have moved to the top of a competitive KLAA West that has six of eight teams playing above .500 overall. Northville took over the top spot alone with a week that saw a 49-43 win over Howell and then a 51-44 victory over Hartland; Howell is now third and Hartland second, and Hartland had won the first meeting with the Mustangs 47-24. Northville has won seven straight, with notable early losses to Clarkston (11-5), South Lyon (13-1) and Midland (12-1) and another impressive win to start this month over Farmington Hills Mercy (11-3).

Wayne Memorial (10-5) The Zebras had lost last year’s matchups with Belleville by 28 and 11 points, but Saturday’s 57-52 win over the Tigers was their eighth in nine games this winter and boosted them up to No. 8 in statewide Division 1 MPR. A 2-4 start this season was filed with valuable losses to Rockford, Detroit Edison (48-46 in overtime) and a pair of Indiana teams, and the only loss since was to an Ohio opponent. Wayne’s rematch with Belleville (14-1) is Feb. 14, and the Zebras also have a key KLAA East win over third-place Livonia Stevenson, 60-53, and will see the Spartans (12-4) again Feb. 18.

DIVISION 2

Detroit Edison (11-3) The reigning Division 2 champion has put together another run to set up a potential playoff push, with its only losses in double overtime to Tecumseh (12-1), by two to Detroit Renaissance (15-1), and to another Division 2 contender Parma Western (13-1). Balance that out with wins over Wayne, Clarkston, Utica Eisenhower (14-1), Detroit Cass Tech (10-5) and most recently annual Illinois contender Bolingbrook. Five of the Pioneers’ six nonleague opponents remaining are 11-3 or better, and the sixth is reigning Division 1 champion West Bloomfield. Circle Feb. 21 at Belleville and Feb. 22 home against Frankenmuth as arguably the best weekend of basketball in the state before the MHSAA Finals.

Frankenmuth (13-2) The Eagles also are gearing up for another potential tournament run, riding an 11-game winning streak with those early losses by a combed five points against Portland (12-3) and Midland Dow over the first two weeks of December. Frankenmuth clinched a share of another Tri-Valley Conference Red title last week against Saginaw Swan Valley and can finish the championship outright by closing out a season sweep this week against Freeland (11-2). The Eagles also have notable wins over Flint Powers Catholic (10-3), Detroit Country Day (12-3) and Saginaw Heritage (12-3), and will head toward March with a string of seven opponents that have all won at last nine games and includes matchups with Goodrich, Rockford, Edison and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s.

Flint Powers’ Kendyl Smith (23) powers to the basket during her team’s 71-41 win over Davison on Tuesday.

DIVISION 3

Cass City (12-1) The Red Hawks moved up five spots to No. 6 in statewide Division 3 MPR this week as they pulled within two more wins of clinching the inaugural Big Thumb Conference White championship. They’ve jumped from 14-11 a year ago and won eight straight since suffering their lone loss, 53-46 to Division 4 contender Kingston (9-1). Cass City also had a solid early win over Deckerville (10-4) and cleared Caro and Unionville-Sebewaing by impressive margins in the first meetings against their closest league challengers. Cass City closes against undefeated Sandusky, a rematch of last season’s Regional Semifinal that ended the Red Hawks’ season.

Harbor Springs (12-2) As 2,000-point scorer Olivia Flynn surges toward the conclusion of her high school career, Harbor Springs is looking like a great possibility to surpass its longest tournament run of her career so far, to the Regional Semifinals a year ago. The Rams shared the Lake Michigan Conference title last season and lead the Northern Shores Conference by two games, with their only losses overall to Division 2 Sault Ste. Marie and Division 4 contender St. Ignace. Harbor Springs also has downed Indian River Inland Lakes (10-3) and East Jordan (10-4), and has an intriguing matchup with Gaylord St. Mary (11-1) to finish the regular season.

DIVISION 4

Baraga (10-4) Although the Vikings will need help to catch Ewen-Trout Creek in the Copper Mountain Conference, they also put L’Anse a game back in the standings with a 52-49 overtime win over the Purple Hornets (11-2) last week. That victory avenged a 68-50 loss to L’Anse from mid-December and came after Baraga opened last week with a 49-46 revenge win over Lake Linden-Hubbell (11-4) – which had won their first meeting 49-37. Baraga will hope to keep that rebound streak going if they see E-TC in a Regional Semifinal – E-TC won the regular-season matchup 61-34 – but in the meantime the Vikings will face last season’s champion Ishpeming on Feb. 10 in what should be their toughest regular-season game the rest of the way.

Gaylord St. Mary (11-1) A mid-December loss to Division 1 Muskegon Mona Shores has been the only flaw in an otherwise perfect run for the Snowbirds, who own a one-game lead in the Ski Valley Conference thanks to a 51-47 victory over Indian River Inland Lakes (10-3) two weeks ago. Those two will meet again Feb. 25, and St. Mary also has a rematch coming up with East Jordan (10-4) after winning their first game impressively. As noted above, The Snowbirds will test themselves against Harbor Springs on Feb. 27, which could provide a nice momentum boost as they pursue a potential fifth-straight District title and possible first Regional championship since 2022.

Can’t-Miss Contests

Be on the lookout for results of these games coming up: 

Monday – New Lothrop (13-1) at Ovid-Elsie (13-2) – A third meeting might be ahead in Division 3 District play, but for now these two are likely the decide the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference title with New Lothrop leading thanks to a 46-37 win in their first meeting Dec. 20.

Tuesday – Shelby (12-2) at Hart (12-1)  – Hart has a slim lead in the West Michigan Conference Rivers thanks to a 37-34 win over second-place Shelby from Dec. 10, and these two also could meet again in Division 3 District action.  

Wednesday – Pewamo-Westphalia (14-0) at Fowler (12-1) – The Central Michigan Athletic Conference has at least two Finals contenders again this season, and the Division 3 Pirates defeated the Division 4 Eagles 46-43 in their first meeting Dec. 17 to earn their current one-game lead in the league.

Friday – Grand Rapids South Christian (13-2) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (13-1) – The O-K Gold title is almost assuredly coming down to these two, and West Catholic has a one-game lead after winning their Jan. 10 matchup 62-49.

Friday – Michigan Center (13-1) at Grass Lake (12-3) – The Cascades Conference East has two intriguing playoff contenders as well, and Division 3 Grass Lake tops the standings after downing Division 2 Michigan Center 56-46 on Jan. 9.

MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a division within the Department of Lifelong Education, Advancement, and Potential (MiLEAP). MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTOS (Top) Ishpeming's Jenessa Eagle brings the ball into the paint against Gwinn during Wednesday’s 54-30 Hematites win. Eagle scored her 1,000th career point in the victory. (Middle) Flint Powers’ Kendyl Smith (23) powers to the basket during her team’s 71-41 win over Davison on Tuesday. (Ishpeming/Gwinn photo by Cara Kamps. Powers/Davison photo by Terry Lyons.)