Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Hiller Piling Up Points as Manton Builds for League, Postseason Possibilities
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
January 16, 2026
Three is the magic number today for the Manton girls basketball team.
It may become four, and many would argue it already is five – as in jersey #5.
The Rangers are riding a three-game winning streak with their eyes on a third-straight District championship. It may take a fourth-straight District title though for Manton’s star point guard – Aubrey Hiller, who wears the number five – to get a shot at becoming the all-time leading scorer in Manton girls basketball history.
Hiller, a junior, is leading the way for the Rangers. The win streak started with a 48-24 victory over McBain Northern Michigan Christian. She scored 25 points that day while joining the Manton 1,000-point club, becoming just the ninth female player to do so. There are 10 males in the club, including Hiller’s father, Ryan, and uncle, Matt Hicks.
With 36 points in a 56-42 win over LeRoy Pine River on Tuesday, Hiller moved to the seventh spot on the all-time scoring list. Last week she surpassed the career scoring of her aunt, Amy, with a 25-point effort in a 43-29 win over Beal City.
Hiller, an all-conference and second-team all-state performer last year, is averaging just over 25 points per game. She also collects almost eight rebounds per contest while racking up at least five assists and five steals. To top off a typical game, Hiller adds almost five pass deflections, mostly in the paint.
And Hiller is shooting almost 80 percent from the free-throw line. In the Rangers’ win over Pine River, she was 13 of 16 on free-throw attempts.
As the Rangers keep their focus on this season, many are wondering how high Hiller can climb on the all-time scoring list. Danielle Bundy has held the top spot since 1999.
Hiller still has the majority of her junior season to play and a senior season ahead. But to get to the top, Hiller will have to stay healthy, keep her torrid scoring pace going, and likely lead Manton to deep postseason runs both years.
“I want to say 1,900 might be tough, but it's definitely there for her to take,” Rangers coach J.P. Katona acknowledged, while noting Abby Brown’s 1,256 points could be topped next.
“I didn't even know I was getting to the 1,000 mark, but I think since I've gotten that another 150 will probably be my next goal,” Hiller said. “And then, if I can surpass that, then I'll go to the next and just hopefully climb up.”
In addition to Hiller’s big numbers, the Rangers also are getting more than eight points per game and nearly 11 rebounds from freshman Ella Barnes. Rylyn Wilder, part of Manton’s strong seven-member junior class, averages eight points per game.
Team chemistry is outstanding, and the ability to climb a high learning curve has been impressive for the previously inexperienced Rangers.
“We put a lot into practices and we're so connected off the court and our team chemistry off the court just makes it so much easier and faster to learn how to play with each other on the court,” Hiller pointed out. “A lot of the girls haven't seen this level of basketball ever. I think as we go, we'll just continue to grow stronger.”
A significant contribution has come from senior and first-year varsity player Kailyn Carter. She played junior varsity as a freshman and was the team’s statistician the last two years.
Carter has become a sound defensive player and a coach’s dream on the court.
“Kaitlyn Carter's story is pretty remarkable,” Katona said. “She does a lot of things that don't show up on the stat sheet. She doesn't make mistakes, doesn't turn the ball over — she’s one of those players that you always want on your team.”
And the Rangers are just getting back senior shooting guard Kelsey Harding. She’s working hard to build up minutes on the court, coming off a knee contusion. She hit a clutch 3-pointer to help ice the win over Pine River, as Manton led only 35-31 going into the final quarter.
Harding, now in her third year on the varsity, credits Hiller with helping the Rangers relax more on the court. And she’s making everyone better.
Even if opponents are full-court pressing, doubling up or triple-teaming Hiller, the 5-3 Rangers are confident she’ll come through.
“We can all trust Aubrey that she's going give us a nice pass to shoot, and we can trust her to bring the ball up the court so we can spot up,” said Harding, one of just two seniors on the team. “Aubrey likes to pass the ball to share the glory – she can get her own shot, but she likes to make other people look good.”
The Rangers lost considerable talent from last year’s Regional finalist team that went 21-6. Manton will look to build on its three-game winning streak with four straight home games.
With a roster of just 10, the Rangers knew they would take their knocks early, and Manton suffered December league losses to McBain and Evart. But the Rangers already have their sights on those rematches and exciting possibilities once the postseason begins.
“It felt pretty good knowing that we don't have a lot more that we need to do in order to beat those teams,” Katona said. “We just have to play a complete game but with the type of team that we have, that takes time. The majority of the teams that were at the top last year have everybody or majority of the starters back, and my personal opinion is the Highland Conference is by far the most competitive girls conference in Northern Michigan.”
While still holding conference championship hopes, the Rangers are looking to the Division 3 District tournament. They will vie for the title with four other league opponents: Lake City, McBain, Pine River and host Evart.
“We've had two great past seasons, and we want to go for a third one,” Hiller said. “We're just a building team and we really are building it. We improved a lot from the beginning of the year till now.”
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Manton’s Aubrey Hiller points something out on her coach’s clipboard during a break against LeRoy Pine River. (Middle) Hiller handles the ball while defended by multiple Pine River players including Sabrina Cutler (20). (Photos by Mike Dunn/Cadillac News.)