Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Flights, Flexibility, Fun & New Friends All Parts of Beaver Island's Sports Story
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
August 27, 2021
Chartered flights and overnight stays for all away games are part of the normal routine for one northern Michigan high school’s student-athletes.
Opportunities to make lots of new friends always come with the games too.
That’s the norm for Beaver Island athletes representing the Lakers in soccer, volleyball and basketball while competing in the Northern Lights League.
“We fly everywhere, and it is awesome,” says second-year soccer coach Bryan Doughman. “I thoroughly enjoy the travel.
“The biggest challenge is the kids forgetting something, and I am ultimately responsible for ‘How am I going to fix this?’”
Beaver Island is the largest island in Lake Michigan, northwest of Charlevoix in the Lower Peninsula and southeast of Manistique in the U.P. The island is home to 600 year-round residents, with 60 students kindergarten through 12th grade, including 17 in grades 9-12 this school year.
Doughman manages a restaurant on the Island. He is a native of Cincinnati. Coaching the co-ed soccer team has permitted him to make his first trips to the Upper Peninsula and Mackinac Island.
But social aspects provide the most benefit for the student-athletes. The Islanders will make their first trip of the season Sept. 15 to Concord Academy Boyne. As they do at home, the Islanders will play a game Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. The overnight experience is provided by the home school.
“The kids will be seeing and meeting new friends,” Doughman noted. That’s what they ultimately look forward to … socially with different people.
“We all know the situation of going to work where you interact with the same people over and over again and can’t wait to meet new people,” he continued. “That’s what they kinda go through their whole lives.”
Beaver Island’s girls volleyball team opened its season Aug. 27 with a pair of losses at Maplewood Baptist in Kinross, located in the eastern Upper Peninsula.
The soccer and volleyball teams will open their home seasons Sept. 10 and 11, hosting Hannahville Nah Tah Wahsh, another U.P. opponent.
“The island community enjoys being able to come and cheer on the island teams,” noted second-year volleyball coach Bridget Martin.
The boys and girls basketball teams will go through their seasons this winter similarly. Athletics and social opportunities are a source of satisfaction for Kerry Smith, Beaver Island’s athletic director. She grew up on the Island and competed for the Islanders.
“The best part of being an AD on an island is the great deal of satisfaction I get from watching our kids be able to connect with other kids their age and play a sport and have a great time doing it,” Smith said. “The kids here know what a privilege it is to be able to have a sports program, and they show their appreciation through their outstanding sportsmanship – and that makes me beam with pride!”
Dianna Behl, Beaver Island’s language arts teacher, will take over the girls basketball team this winter. She has served as the school’s Nordic ski club advisor the past four years and has practiced with the basketball team frequently. She was a three-year letter winner at Charlevoix High School.
She’s expects her team to benefit from players taking part in fall sports.
“I am very excited for our season because many of the players are participating in soccer and volleyball, so they should be in great shape for basketball season,” she said. “I hope to build on their solid base.”
Dan Burton will be entering his seventh season as the varsity boys basketball coach. He’s also developing an elementary basketball program and guiding the middle schoolers. He expects to have a middle schooler or two join the high school team to fill out the roster this winter.
“The best part of coaching is getting these the students an outlet for sports,” said Burton, a business owner on the island. “Otherwise, there’s nothing much else to do in a small town like this.
“Keeping a sports program is the most important thing.”
The soccer team also is relying on middle schoolers as it attempts to find enough players to compete. The co-ed roster is dominated by girls, and the Islanders have only two seniors and one junior on the squad.
“I just hope we can improve a lot on our basics this year,” Doughman said. “I hope to just have fun. The biggest challenge is they’re all first and second-year players, except for a handful.”
Weather is the most difficult challenge of being an island-based sports team, the coaches acknowledged.
“The greatest challenge of coaching an island team is Mother Nature,” Behl said. “The girls practice hard for days and then at the last minute bad weather comes in and the planes aren't flying us out, or our competition in, for the games.
“It is heartbreaking and happens every season,” she continued. “Nonetheless, I am so impressed with how well the girls handle it. It is a life lesson in flexibility, and they are pros.”
Because of those frequent weather changes, spotting the athletic director in the school hallways often is a bad sign.
“The weather is a major frustration and always a factor for us,” Smith said. “On game day, I try not to show my face down in the high school wing because the kids always think I am coming to deliver bad news.”
The school often chooses which teams will go on to MHSAA postseason play based on their success in the league. Beaver Island sent its boys basketball team to Districts last season.
The last Beaver Island team to move past the first round of Districts was the volleyball team in 2013. The Islanders beat Mackinaw City and went on to play Engadine before seeing their season come to an end. The school’s best-ever tournament run was by the soccer team in 2005.
“They were District winners; this was the farthest any team has ever gone,” Smith recalled. “It was a huge celebration. The team was greeted by the fire trucks, parents and pretty much the whole community when they flew home that day.”
Beaver Island anticipates sending the boys basketball team to Districts again this year, and possibly the girls basketball team as well.
Mackinac Island is the Islanders’ favorite place to travel, according to coaches’ consensus. That’s the host for the volleyball and soccer Northern Lights Conference tournaments.
“One of our favorites would have to be Mackinac Island because the girls enjoy flying to another island, riding in the horse drawn carriage and the rare treat of getting to go to a Starbucks,” she said.
Mackinac Island will host conference tournaments for soccer Oct. 16 and volleyball Oct. 23.
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Beaver Island's Ella Moon passes during a volleyball match this fall. (2) Olga Burton winds up to serve. (3) Beaver Island plays its lone home soccer game during the 2020 season. (4) The Beaver Island boys basketball team participated in District play this past winter. (Photos courtesy of the Beaver Island athletic department.)