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Drive for Detroit: Week 9 Preview

October 20, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

The sun is setting on another Michigan high school football regular season. 

But the lights haven't gone off yet for 180 teams holding out hope of playing their way into this season's playoff field.

Heading into Thursday night, 160 teams in 11-player could either qualify automatically with a win this weekend or set themselves up for a possible at-large bid. And 20 8-player teams, give or take a few, still look to be alive for one of 16 spots in that field.

A number of games including Detroit Public School League and Big 8/Cascades Conference crossovers were played Thursday. See the MHSAA Score Center for those scores and the schedule for tonight and Saturday. Be sure to tune in to Fox Sports Detroit at 7 p.m. Sunday for the announcement of this season's playoff brackets in all nine divisions. Click for more details on the Selection Sunday Show.

And see below for the final regular-season Drive for Detroit preview, powered by MI Student Aid, with some emphasis placed on games that could help decide the playoff field. All games are tonight unless noted.

Bay & Thumb

Frankenmuth (8-0) at Freeland (8-0)

This is a repeat of last year’s Week 9 scenario, when these Tri-Valley Conference champions – Frankenmuth from the East and Freeland from the Central – met in the final regular season game. Freeland won big, 42-7, and then won 35-12 when they met again two weeks later for a Division 5 District title. The numbers indicate a closer game between the two this time; Freeland’s defense remains stellar giving up only 8.6 points per game, but Frankenmuth’s is giving up only 5.4 and could be the key to reversing last season’s results.  

Others that caught my eye: Lapeer (6-2) at Flint Carman-Ainsworth (6-2), Flint Powers Catholic (5-3) at Davison (8-0), Fenton (6-2) at Linden (6-2), Midland Dow (7-1) at Midland (4-4).

Greater Detroit

Detroit Cass Tech (8-0) vs. Detroit Martin Luther King (7-1) at Ford Field

As anticipated, these two will meet for the PSL Division 1 championship after also facing each other in division play three weeks ago. Cass Tech won that game 31-18, being held to its fewest points of the season but also locking down a King offense that has scored fewer than 39 only one other time. The Crusaders already got a taste of a rematch last week, when they played Detroit East English for the second straight and escaped with a two-point win after downing the Bulldogs by 38 the week before. King will hope for a similar tightening up of the score in this second meeting with the Technicians. 

Others that caught my eye: Lake Orion (5-3) at Bloomfield Hills (8-0), Detroit Denby (7-1) vs. Detroit Mumford (7-1) at Ford Field, Oak Park (6-2) at Southfield Arts & Technology (5-3), Detroit Catholic Central (8-0) vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (5-3) on Saturday at Ford Field

Mid-Michigan

Walled Lake Western (7-1) at Brighton (7-1)

This Lakes championship game features the winners of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West (Brighton) and North (Western) in their first meeting since 1997. The Warriors are undefeated aside from having to forfeit an opening-night victory and have beaten three teams already qualified for the playoffs and two more that could get in at-large. Brighton has four wins against teams that are in or close, but did lose Week 2 to Northville – which lost to Western in Week 3.

Others that caught my eye: Grandville Calvin Christian (5-3) at Belding (5-3), Laingsburg (7-1) at Durand (5-3), Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (4-4) at Lansing Catholic (7-1), Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (6-2) at New Lothrop (8-0).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Boyne City (6-2) at Traverse City St. Francis (8-0)

Boyne City’s rough start to this season is barely a memory two months later as it has a chance to finish this comeback with a Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends-clinching victory against reigning champion St. Francis. The Ramblers will have a little vengeance in mind after St. Francis' 32-13 win in their 2015 meeting decided the league title. But the Gladiators are riding high; St. Francis downed playoff-bound Kalkaska 49-0 last week, has given up 15 points over its last four games and no more than 14 in any game this fall.

Others that caught my eye: Traverse City Central (7-1) at Cadillac (6-2), Kalkaska (6-2) at Grayling (5-3), Clare (7-1) at Houghton Lake (5-3), Frankfort (8-0) at Onekama (6-2).

Southeast & Border

Birmingham Groves (8-0) at Saline (8-0)

Trying to pick an angle on this one is tough; it’s just a great matchup. Both teams went 9-0 last season, so the winner going undefeated won’t be something new. Both also rank among the highest in any division for playoff-point average, so the winner of this one could be looking at a nice playoff road – but the loser will be in good shape as well. Both are keyed by strong defenses: Saline has given up 12.7 points per game but only 31 points over their last four. Groves, meanwhile, has given up only 34 points over the last seven games and no more than eight since Week 2.

Others that caught my eye: Morenci (5-3) at Adrian Madison (4-4), Dearborn (7-1) at Ann Arbor Skyline (4-4), Sand Creek (7-1) at Petersburg-Summerfield (5-3), Grass Lake (7-1) at Springport (7-1).

Southwest Corridor

Portage Central (7-1) at St. Joseph (6-2)

Portage Central no doubt has been looking forward to this one; the Mustangs were cruising along to an outright Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West title and perfect regular season last year when St. Joseph busted both with a 22-6 Week 9 win. The teams ended up sharing the league title, and the Bears are in the same position of trying to force another share after losing to Stevensville Lakeshore in Week 4. Portage Central’s only loss this fall was on the road to one-loss Traverse City Central.

Others that caught my eye: Traverse City West (6-2) at Coldwater (6-2), Lawton (7-1) at Decatur (4-4), Portland (8-0) at Marshall (4-4), DeWitt (7-1) at Portage Northern (5-3).

Upper Peninsula

Newberry (7-1) at St. Ignace (7-1)

The Indians could add a major highlight to their best season since 2004 by avenging last year’s 50-20 playoff loss to the Saints. St. Ignace went on to the Division 8 Semifinals and this fall locked up an eighth-straight league title in its first season in the NMFL Legends division. Newberry can gain a share of the Mid-Eastern Conference title, but only if first-place and undefeated Lake Linden-Hubbell falls this weekend to Munising.

Others that caught my eye: Iron Mountain (6-2) at Norway (7-1), Kingsford (6-2) at Escanaba (6-2), Bark River-Harris (3-5) at Felch North Dickinson (5-3), Hancock (4-4) at Houghton (3-5).

West Michigan

Rockford (6-2) at Hudsonville (7-1)

For most of this season, it didn’t look like this game would mean as much as it does once again. Rockford has rattled off six straight wins after a rough start and holds a one-win advantage on both Grandville and Hudsonville in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red. Hudsonville fell to Grandville in Week 4 but can create a three-way tie for the title if it can avenge last year’s pair of losses to the Rams – 28-27 in Week 9 and then 21-13 in their District Final.

Others that caught my eye: Grand Rapids West Catholic (7-1) at Allendale (6-2), Hudsonville Unity Christian (7-1) at Byron Center (7-1), Zeeland East (6-2) at Zeeland West (6-2), East Grand Rapids (6-2) at Grand Rapids South Christian (5-3).

8-Player

Powers North Central (8-0) at Stephenson (7-1) 

The Jets have turned away all challengers in their quest to repeat as MHSAA champions. North Central has yet to lose a game in two seasons of 8-player football, and it’s scored at least 56 points in every game this fall and 76 or more four of the last five weeks. Enter Stephenson, which saw North Central twice last season and this fall has lost only to Crystal Falls Forest Park – the team to give North Central its toughest challenge so far.

Others that caught my eye: Camden-Frontier (5-1) at Waldron (4-4), New Haven Merritt (8-0) at Flint International Academy (6-2).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid. 

PHOTOS: Whitehall and Ravenna took the field under a picturesque sunset Oct. 7. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)

Michigan’s Football Numbers Game – Corrected

September 1, 2017

Today’s blog was written by MHSAA Second Half Editor Geoff Kimmerly

The demise of Michigan high school football has been greatly exaggerated – or, at least, recently misreported by one of the U.S.’s most recognizable newspapers that noted as part of a larger story on football decline that Michigan has seen a “net loss of 57 teams in the past five years.”

It’s easy to understand how this error took place – especially when a reporter is not familiar with the football landscape in our state – but that doesn’t make this statement any less misleading, or harmful considering the story since has been picked up by multiple large news organizations. So let’s quickly clear up the misinterpreted information:

  • The data that led to this error came from an annual participation report released by the National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS). Every spring, state associations (like the MHSAA) from every state and Washington, D.C., tally up how many of their member schools have a sport and how many athletes play it. 

  • For 2016-17, the MHSAA submitted to the NFHS a total of 580 schools with 11-player football – that number actually includes all schools that reported having at least one football player, including primary and secondary schools in co-ops. And yes, that 580 is 57 fewer than the 637 11-player schools the MHSAA submitted for 2012-13. 

  • But saying Michigan has lost 57 football programs misses out on something incredibly significant – the MHSAA also submitted 60 schools with 8-player football last year, up from 16 in 2012-13, making that net decrease in football schools over five years 13 – far fewer than 57.

And with a few more brush strokes, the picture of football in our state actually shows a healthy landscape:

  • The 640 schools in Michigan with at least one football player for 2016-17, 11 and 8-player combined, is actually eight more than we reported to the NFHS four years ago and 10 more than three years ago. 

  • A better picture of Michigan’s football consistency is shown by how many varsity programs are taking the field. This fall, that number is 616 – 555 11-player varsities and 61 8-player – and we also had 616 for most of the 2016 season, 616 in 2015 and 615 in 2014. 

  • We’ve had programs bring back varsity teams this year, and in one case a school has a team on its own for the first time. Benzonia Benzie Central and Suttons Bay were unable to field varsities in 2016, but Benzie Central is back playing 11-player and Suttons Bay is back with an 8-player team. Brimley, an 8-player school going back to 2010, also is fielding a team again after being unable to do so last year. Mount Clemens played only two varsity games in 2016 and forfeited a third, but has seven scheduled for this fall and lost close in its opener last week. And Bear Lake, previously a secondary school in a co-op program, now has a team all its own for the first time and is playing at the 8-player level. 

  • Yes, there has been a decrease in Michigan high school football participation when it comes to the number of players – for reasons we discuss frequently, including more extracurricular/entertainment options than ever for students, more who are specializing in other sports and safety fears that often are misplaced. But we’ve also seen a three percent drop in enrollment at MHSAA member schools over the last five years. And despite that trend, Michigan again had the sixth-highest 11-player football participation in the nation in 2016-17 (and seventh-highest in 8-player) while ranking 10th nationally in number of residents of high school age. 

  • So yes, while a nine percent drop in the number of football players over the last five years in Michigan clearly is troubling, and something we’re working with the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association to reverse, let’s also put those numbers in perspective. At medium-sized to bigger schools, it could mean a roster of 40 might have only 36 players. A roster of 20 at an 8-player school might go down to 18. Neither would signal the need to eliminate a football program. 

  • And that move by so many schools to 8-player? It definitely started as a way for low-participation programs to keep football (and has worked for most of them). While that still may be the driving force as schools move from 11 to 8, others have made the switch because most of their former opponents did and joining them makes scheduling easier and travel shorter. Michigan has a multitude of small towns, and you’ll find most of these 8-player programs in pockets in the thumb, southwest or northern Lower Peninsula, or Upper Peninsula. And keep in mind, only Class D teams remain eligible for the 8-player playoffs – and only two of 61 teams playing 8-player this fall are larger than Class D and its enrollment limit of 203 students for 2017-18.

The story behind “a decrease of 57 schools” clearly is a little complex to explain and explain away, but it’s necessary to do so. 

Yes, Michigan’s total number of football players is down a few percent. But the sport’s prominence and importance in our schools and communities remains high.