Breslin Bound: 2021-22 Girls District Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
February 28, 2022
As February ends and March begins this week, so does the most “Breslin Bound” portion of our girls basketball season.
District tournaments tip off all over the state tonight. Check out “Tracking the Tournament” on MHSAA.com for every matchup from all of them, and see below for some of last week’s most eye-catching scores and three Districts in each division that could make the biggest impacts this week on the overall postseason pictures.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Bloomfield Hills Marian 53, Detroit Renaissance 34 The Mustangs (14-6) continued their late-season surge with a win over the Phoenix (14-6) in the Operation Friendship matchup of Detroit Catholic League and Public School League champions.
2. Midland Dow 56, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 45 The Chargers (19-1) clinched a share of what turned into the outright Saginaw Valley League title, with this the only SVL defeat for Carman-Ainsworth (16-4).
3. Hartland 63, Howell 48 The Eagles (19-1) won the third meeting this winter with the Highlanders (15-5) to take a 2-1 season lead and clinch the overall Kensington Lakes Activities Association Tournament championship.
4. Bloomingdale 30, Hartford 29 The Cardinals (19-1) clinched a share of the eventually outright Southwest 10 Conference title by avenging an earlier six-point loss to Hartford (17-3).
5. Detroit Edison 67, Farmington Hills Mercy 44 The Pioneers (12-3) rolled into the Division 2 postseason with three wins over strong Division 1 teams, this against Mercy (16-4) the first of the final week’s run.
Districts at a Glance
These could be among our most competitive brackets. Host sites are in bold:
DIVISION 1
Dexter
1. Dexter (18-2), 2. South Lyon East (18-2), Brighton (13-7), South Lyon (9-10), Ann Arbor Skyline (4-14).
The Dreadnaughts bring an 11-game winning streak and undefeated run through the Southeastern Conference Red into this week, with 15 of their wins by double digits. Dexter is No. 7 overall in Division 1 MPR, and South Lyon East slotted No. 18 after a perfect run through the Lakes Valley Conference and 12 straight victories – with no win of their 18 total by fewer than 13 points. Brighton finished fourth in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West dominated by Hartland and Howell (see below), a combined four losses to those two and also four of their defeats total by only five points or fewer.
Howell
1. Hartland (19-1), 2. Howell (15-5), Linden (15-5), Fenton (10-10), Holly (0-18).
Hartland finished No. 4 overall in Division 1 MPR, and Howell at No. 10. They split the KLAA West title, and Hartland won the regular-season series 2-1, capped with a 63-48 win in last week’s KLAA overall championship game (also noted above). The Highlanders’ 37-31 win in their first meeting Jan. 11 was the Eagles’ only loss of this season. All of that said, Linden will try to break into the conversation coming out of finishing second in the Flint Metro League Stripes and with four of its five losses to teams that finished 16-4 or better.
West Bloomfield
1. West Bloomfield (18-1), 2. Bloomfield Hills Marian (14-6), North Farmington (11-8), Birmingham Seaholm (14-4), Birmingham Groves (9-10), Bloomfield Hills (3-16).
West Bloomfield reaffirmed itself as a Division 1 championship favorite two weeks ago in handing Detroit Edison its first in-state loss in four years. The Lakers slotted No. 6 in the final Division 1 MPR with their only defeat in their season opener to Dexter. But Marian’s profile has risen significantly over the last two weeks as the Mustangs have come from finishing fourth in a strong Detroit Catholic League Central to defeating the first and second-place teams in claiming the Bishop Tournament championship and then downing Renaissance (see above) to cap the regular season. Birmingham Seaholm also is a league champion, from the Oakland Activities Association Blue, and Groves defeated Seaholm in December.
DIVISION 2
Adrian
1. Chelsea (17-3), 2. Tecumseh (18-2), Onsted (14-6), Milan (6-12), Hillsdale (3-17), Adrian (2-16).
Chelsea was undefeated in winning the SEC White, with Tecumseh’s only losses to the Bulldogs – 64-40 and 69-48. Chelsea did close with a 52-36 loss to Dexter last week, but that defeat ended a 12-game winning streak that had included wins over Battle Creek Lakeview (18-1) and Grass Lake (14-5). As noted, Tecumseh otherwise was undefeated this regular season – including with a 67-34 win over Onsted on Jan. 6. Onsted tied for second in the Lenawee County Athletic Association, and all of its defeats this winter were to teams that finished 14-6 or better.
Essexville Garber
1. Saginaw Swan Valley (16-4), 2. Freeland (15-5), Midland Bullock Creek (13-7), Essexville Garber (13-7), Bay City John Glenn (5-15), Saginaw Arthur Hill (4-13), Carrollton (2-18).
Swan Valley and Freeland tied for second in the Tri-Valley Conference 8, splitting their regular-season meetings with Freeland winning 45-25 in last week’s rematch. Garber finished fourth in the TVC-8 with a combined six of its losses to those two and league champion Frankenmuth. Bullock Creek also has a chance to shake things up a bit; in addition to finishing fourth in the TVC-10, the Lancers fell by only four in overtime to Freeland in last season’s District (which the Falcons went on to win by also defeating Swan Valley and John Glenn).
Ionia
1. Portland (19-1), 2. Lansing Catholic (17-2), Ionia (11-8), Hastings (12-8), Lake Odessa Lakewood (5-14), Lansing Eastern (3-15).
The Raiders are the reigning Division 2 champions, and their only loss came to Lansing Catholic 55-52 on Jan. 14 – which Portland avenged Feb. 18, 53-41. Portland finished No. 3 in the final Division 2 MPR and the Cougars No. 7, as both loaded their regular-season schedules. Portland also had wins over 2021 Division 4 champion Fowler and Division 1 Renaissance, East Lansing and Haslett, plus Chelsea; and Lansing Catholic also owns a win over Haslett plus others against Swan Valley, Detroit Cass Tech and Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard. Ionia was fourth behind those co-champs of the Capital Area Activities Conference White, and Hastings finished fourth in another strong league, the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference.
DIVISION 3
Calumet
1. Calumet (17-2), 2. Hancock (16-4), Ishpeming Westwood (13-6) Ishpeming (10-8), Gwinn (1-18).
Calumet sits No. 3 and Hancock No. 9 in final Division 3 MPR, the Copper Kings having swept the Bulldogs in winning the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference West title. One of Hancock’s other two losses came to Westwood, which shared the West-PAC East championship with Negaunee but must open Wednesday against Calumet. Ishpeming is an interesting potential stopper with eight wins over its last 10 games including a 42-37 victory over Westwood in their second meeting of the season Feb. 5.
Montrose
1. Reese (16-4), 2. New Lothrop (15-5), Montrose (9-11), Flint Beecher (13-5), Vassar (6-14), Burton Madison Academy (4-9).
The Rockets have won nine of their last 10, and three of their defeats were to teams highlighted among the larger-school divisions in this report (Dexter, Swan Valley and Freeland). They won a solid Greater Thumb Conference West and are looking to add to a Division 3 volleyball championship won in the fall. New Lothrop finished second only to Division 2 Ovid-Elsie (19-1) in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference, and the Hornets have won eight of their last 10 with three of their defeats to teams that won league titles. Beecher was runner-up in the Genesee Area Conference Red.
Traverse City St. Francis
1. Maple City Glen Lake (20-0), 2. Elk Rapids (18-2), Traverse City St. Francis (14-6), Benzie Central (10-10), Grand Traverse Academy (11-5), Mancelona (6-13).
The Lakers finished their second-straight perfect regular season and are looking to build on last year’s Quarterfinal fun. The Northwest Conference champions have wins over Elk Rapids, St. Francis and Benzie Central, although those over the Elks and Gladiators were in December. Elk Rapids was first and St. Francis third in the Lake Michigan Conference, with the Elks on an 11-game winning streak since its only other defeat, to Harbor Springs (18-2). Grand Traverse Academy has won nine of its last 10 and opens with Benzie Central.
DIVISION 4
Athens
1. Athens (19-1), 2. Colon (16-4), Mendon (17-3), Burr Oak (8-10), Tekonsha (2-17).
Athens is No. 5 in Division 4 MPR and didn’t lose again after falling to No. 4 Adrian Lenawee Christian in its season opener. That 19-game winning streak included a pair over Colon on the way to winning the Southern Central Athletic Association West. The Magi’s other defeats came to Pittsford (17-3) and Division 3 Schoolcraft (19-1) as it finished second in the SCAA West. Mendon will be representing the best from the Southwest 10 Conference after finishing third in that league with losses only to champion Bloomingdale (19-1) and runner-up Hartford (17-3).
Lansing Christian
1. Portland St. Patrick (20-0), 2. Fowler (17-3), Lansing Christian (11-9), Morrice (11-5), Fulton (1-18), Webberville (3-16).
The winner of this District will be a favorite to win it all. Fowler is the reigning Division 4 champion and No. 3 in Division 4 MPR, and Portland St. Patrick is No. 2 and defeated the Eagles 53-49 and 58-51 in overtime during the regular season. St. Pat’s also has wins over Lansing Christian and Morrice, and Fowler defeated top-ranked Plymouth Christian Academy 43-35 on Jan. 10. The Eagles only other loss was to Division 2 reigning champion Portland.
Mackinaw City
1. Pickford (16-2), 2. Mackinaw City (17-3), Cedarville (8-11).
Yes, there are only three teams in this District, but some exciting possibilities from whichever emerges from it. Pickford won the Eastern Upper Peninsula Athletic Conference with a perfect league record and its only losses to Division 3 St. Ignace (18-2). Two of Mackinaw City’s losses also were to the Saints, as the Comets were perfect in Northern Lakes Conference play with the only other defeat to Indian River Inland Lakes (12-8). Cedarville will be looking to avenge a Jan. 17 loss to Mackinaw City, and all of the Islanders’ defeats were to teams with winning records – including five with records of 16-2 or better.
Second Half’s weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO Reese, here against Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker, is among contenders facing a strong District field this week. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.