No Mercy Needed as Ogemaw Surges
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
October 23, 2020
Soccer games in Michigan have long consisted of two 40-minute halves.
Not so until recently for games involving Ogemaw Heights. Historically the contest was often over at halftime due the MHSAA 8-goal differential rule. Sadly, the Falcons had become quite accustomed to getting back on the bus after the first 40 minutes.
Jack Vliet, the Falcons’ first-year athletic director, and Tom Zaske, the fourth-year boys soccer coach, are way too familiar with the rule widely known as a “mercy.” They were well aware of the program’s suffering before they got officially involved.
Zaske’s first experiences came as a father of a freshman soccer player, and then as the JV coach. Vliet’s a first awareness was from being a member of the community.
“It’s been a tough road for the soccer program,” Vliet said. “The adversity these kids have faced ... and now they’re coming out on top.
“They’re adjusting on the fly,” he continued. “What a great job the coaches have done, and now we’re experiencing community buy-in.”
Now, the Falcons have the potential to win their third District title in the last four years on Saturday. They are facing Clare, a team they have defeated 8-0 and 7-0 this year. The game is at Clare, and the winner advances to play Elk Rapids in a Regional Semifinal on Oct. 28.
Elk Rapids, which is headed for its third-straight Regional appearance, has a storied past with multiple MHSAA Finals runs and two Division 4 championships. The Elks possess the number one Michigan Power Rating (MPR) in D3 this year. They are 17-2-4 and won the Lake Michigan conference title again this year. They also have taken on strong D1 and D2 teams, including this year’s Big North Conference champion Traverse City West and runner-up Petoskey. The Elks picked up a 4-0 win over Petoskey after a 0-0 tie with the Northmen the first time they met.
Ogemaw’s history of mercy losses was the greatest when the Falcons were in the Big North. Now the Falcons play in the Northern Michigan Soccer League. No mercy losses this year. In fact, they suffered only one defeat, 2-1, at the hands of McBain Northern Michigan Christian. The Falcons erased the memory of the league loss with a 4-0 win over NMC earlier this month, and they have eight mercy wins this season.
Despite having the most wins in school history and a record of 16-1-2, Ogemaw hasn’t cracked the rankings yet. They are 13th in the MPR index used to determine seeding of the top two teams at the District level. The index is based on a team's success and strength of schedule, according to results posted to the MHSAA Website and including games against other MHSAA Tournament teams.
Zaske has his players fearing not what may be ahead. He’ll be thrilled if Ogemaw gets an opportunity to take on Elk Rapids next week. Elk Rapids’ past is what Vliet wants in Ogemaw’s future.
“We believe it doesn’t matter who you play,” Zaske stressed. “We tell the kids ‘if you can play your game, you can compete with anybody.’
“We’re going to prepare that way,” he continued. “We’ll try to play our game better than they (Elks) can defend it.”
Zaske’s four-years stint with the Falcons’ varsity was preceded by a couple of years with the JV team. He’s also been involved as a coach of his players during youth league seasons.
He immediately began to create a winning culture with the goal of someday winning an MHSAA Finals championship.
“We set out to get rid of the stigma of getting on the bus and only playing 40 minutes,” Zaske said. “Those kids were so used to it. It was a culture change.
“I keep kids focused on playing our game and playing our game well,” he continued.
Senior leadership has been a key to the Falcons’ success this year. Senior goalie and captain Jake Bonus has nine shutouts, bolstered by the midfield and a strong defense led by Joe Mulky.
Jack Juarez, a senior and three-year starter, led the team in assists the past three seasons. He has scored 13 goals and recorded 19 assists this fall. Senior Lucas Courtemanche is the leading goal scorer, with 21. Wyatt Veltman, another senior, is next with 20 goals, followed by junior Isaac Divine with 17.
If Ogemaw doesn’t get to the Finals this year, the Falcons will strive for them again next fall. The program’s development may be ahead of schedule.
“The kids really worked hard all summer, and we had things to look forward to,” Zaske noted. “I think we’re in a better place than I thought we’d be in four years.
“The kids see what hard work, teamwork does,” he continued. “It takes time. It doesn’t happen overnight. They know they need to put in the time and put in the effort. There’s a goal in mind.”
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTO: (Top) Ogemaw Heights’ Trevor Brown (27) maintains control of the ball against Tawas this season. (Photo by Mike Juarez.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.