Drive for Detroit: Week 8 Preview

October 11, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Every fall we say it again: We can’t believe how quickly football season flies by.

But here we are in Week 8, midway through another October, heading into the home stretch for many and the most anticipated weeks for the most fortunate.

With two regular-season games to play, 117 of 256 11-player playoff spots are filled, and 83 more teams can clinch postseason berths this weekend. The Detroit Public School League begins its playoffs tonight and Saturday, while many other leagues across the state will either be finishing up their schedules and/or crowning champions over the next 72 hours. 

All games below are tonight unless noted. Check out the MHSAA Score Center for the full schedule and results as games are completed. MHSAA.tv will broadcast 11 games this weekend including five mentioned below. Our “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid. 

Bay & Thumb

Roseville (5-2) at Port Huron Northern (6-1)

Both are undefeated in Macomb Area Conference Blue play heading into this winner-take-all league finale. The Huskies are attempting to take the next step after finishing second in the MAC Gold both of the last two seasons, while Roseville was one of three teams to share the Blue title a year ago – and is looking to also avenge last season’s 13-7 first-round playoff loss to Northern.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Midland Dow (5-2) at Mount Pleasant (7-0), Sandusky (7-0) at Harbor Beach (6-1), Fenton (5-2) at Swartz Creek (6-1), Haslett (6-1) at Goodrich (5-2).

Greater Detroit 

Warren DeLaSalle (6-1) at Detroit Catholic Central (5-2), Sunday

The Detroit area features league championship-deciding games Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with this a clash of MHSAA title contenders as well. Reigning Division 2 champion DeLaSalle has clinched a share of the Catholic League Central title after winning it outright a year ago by defeating the Shamrocks. The Pilots then beat DCC the following week as well in the Prep Bowl, and this weekend’s game could potentially be the first of two straight between these powers again.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Farmington (6-1) at Birmingham Seaholm (6-1), Walled Lake Western (5-2) at South Lyon (7-0), Riverview (6-1) at Grosse Ile (7-0), SATURDAY St. Clair Shores Lake Shore (6-1) at Warren Woods Tower (7-0).

Mid-Michigan

Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (6-1) at Ithaca (6-1) 

The Cardinals’ loss last week to Hemlock took some of the juice out of this one, but an MLS win would create a three-team share of the Tri-Valley Conference West championship between these two and the Huskies. Ithaca hasn’t lost a league game since 2009, and counting the share it owns already this fall has won 10 straight TVC West titles. The Cardinals’ defense has been especially impressive, giving up just over nine points per game, and it will need to come up big again as Ithaca’s offense remains on a scorching 45-ppg pace.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Pewamo-Westphalia (7-0) at Fowler (4-3), Lake Fenton (4-3) at Williamston (6-1), Climax-Scotts (3-3) at Breckenridge (7-0), Brighton (6-1) at Howell (4-3).

Northern Lower Peninsula 

Gaylord (5-2) at Traverse City West (5-2), Saturday

The Blue Devils can’t move into a first-place tie in the Big North Conference with a win in this one, but they can make the league race pretty messy. West is undefeated in league play, but a Gaylord win would give Traverse City Central and Petoskey opportunities to share or win the championship outright. The reigning league champion Titans have beaten Gaylord in 12 straight – but this is a better Blue Devils team than most during that string. A sixth win would tie Gaylord’s most in a season over the last 15.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Escanaba (5-2) at Traverse City Central (6-1), Kingsley (6-1) at Cheboygan (4-3), Boyne City (3-4) at Benzie Central (4-3), Elk Rapids (5-2) at Harbor Springs (6-1).

Southeast & Border

Springport (7-0) at Reading (7-0)

The Big 8 Conference title comes down to this, one of three matchups this week between 7-0 teams. Reading has won 16 straight league games, including a sweep of all seven in earning last season’s championship, but these two have split their last eight meetings. The Rangers might have the most statistically impressive defense in the state – they’ve given up just 19 points this season – and it will be key against a Springport offense averaging 45 points (although Reading averages 50).

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Monroe (6-1) at Saline (6-1), Clinton (6-1) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (7-0), Hillsdale (7-0) at Brooklyn Columbia Central (6-1), Michigan Center (6-1) at Napoleon (5-2).

Southwest Corridor

Constantine (6-1) at Kalamazoo United (7-0)

Constantine’s loss two weeks ago to Schoolcraft has it sitting third in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley behind the Eagles and United. Those co-leaders meet in Week 9 – but Kalamazoo of course won’t look past tonight. The last two games between the Falcons and Titans have been decided by a combined seven points – although both in Kalamazoo’s favor. Constantine’s running attack may need to be the key to slowing down a United offense averaging 60 points per game.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Olivet (7-0) at Berrien Springs (6-1), Cassopolis (7-0) at Mendon (4-3), Mattawan (5-2) at Portage Central (5-2), Athens (3-3) at Three Oaks River Valley (4-3).

Upper Peninsula

Gladstone (3-4) at Marquette (3-4)

When it a matchup between two sub-.500 teams the best in a region? When both are fighting for playoff possibilities – and a league title. Thanks to one-point wins over Escanaba and Kingsford, the Redmen have all but wrapped up the Great Northern Conference championship. Gladstone has only the slimmest chance of ending up with a piece of the league title, but the Braves can still shake things up – and like Marquette must finish 5-4 to earn an opportunity for an at-large playoff bid.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Iron River West Iron County (5-2) at Gwinn (5-2), Rogers City (6-1) at St. Ignace (4-3), Munising (4-3) at Ishpeming (7-0), Negaunee (4-3) at Houghton (3-4).

West Michigan

Muskegon Mona Shores (7-0) at Muskegon (7-0)

With the reigning Division 3 champion Big Reds down the road, Mona Shores probably isn’t getting as much attention as it might elsewhere. But the Sailors can earn it tonight in this battle for a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black title. Mona Shores gave Muskegon the latter’s closest game a year ago, losing by just 11. The Big Reds have proven themselves again this fall against some of the state’s elite – but the Sailors belong in that conversation too and have the enviable  opportunity to show it.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Zeeland East (6-1) at Zeeland West (6-1), East Grand Rapids (5-2) at Grand Rapids Christian (5-2), Lake City (7-0) at Kent City (7-0), Grand Rapids West Catholic (4-3) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (6-1).

8-Player

Posen (6-1) at AuGres-Sims (7-0)

AuGres-Sims’ first season of 8-player football couldn’t be going much better, as it clinched a share of the Midwest Central Football Conference East last week and can finish the outright title tonight against second-place Posen (which is tied for that position with Hillman). The Wolverines have four shutouts and have given up a combined 30 points over their other three games. But Posen deserves it’s due too – its six wins are as many as the last two seasons combined, and the only defeat was by four to Hillman two weeks ago. An upset tonight would be one of the most memorable wins of the last decade for one of the state’s first 8-player adopters. 

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Rapid River (5-2) at Engadine (6-1), Peck (5-2) at Kingston (6-1), Suttons Bay (6-1) at Onekama (6-1), Ontonagon (4-3) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (4-3). 

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.  

PHOTO: Breckenridge charges ahead against Carson City-Crystal last week on the way to clinching the Mid-State Activities Conference title. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)

Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.