Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2026 Week 6 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 2, 2026

Fall clearly has reached Michigan this week with temperatures beginning to dive, leaves falling to the ground, and the football regular season driving into its second half with league and playoff races taking shape. 

MI Student AidThis week’s schedule includes four matchups of 5-0 teams and several others that will further how those league championships could shake out, and also how the playoff field of 288 could unfold at the end of this month. 

Games below are Friday unless noted. Tune in to the NFHS Network to watch the majority and follow the MHSAA Scores page for results as they’re submitted.

Bay & Thumb

Harrison (5-0) at Sanford Meridian (5-0)

The winner will claim a share of the Jack Pine Conference Division 2 title, with these two deciding the champion for the second season in a row as Meridian’s 20-6 victory last fall ended up giving the Mustangs the league title by a game over Harrison. Meridian is coming off an impressive 36-29 win over Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood in what was a meeting of undefeated teams, and the Mustangs have scored at least 34 points every week – although that likely will be challenged by a Harrison defense giving up 8.4 ppg.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Cass City (4-1) at Caro (3-2), Gladwin (4-1) at Midland Bullock Creek (3-2), Traverse City West (3-2) at Midland Dow (3-2), Ubly (4-1) at Unionville-Sebewaing (3-2).

Greater Detroit

Toledo Central Catholic (5-1) at Detroit Catholic Central (5-0), Saturday

Both teams are off to 2-0 starts in the Catholic High School League Central, but neither has much time to let up the rest of the way. DCC follows this matchup with a road game at reigning Division 2 champion Orchard Lake St. Mary’s in Week 7 and still must face Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice in Week 9. Last week was the first DCC didn’t reach 50 points – scoring a plenty respectable 36 – and it will be interesting to see how matchups translate as TCC is coming off a 49-7 win over Jackson Lumen Christi. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Detroit Martin Luther King (4-1) at Detroit East English (4-1), Dearborn Fordson (4-1) at Northville (5-0), Monroe Jefferson (5-0) at New Boston Huron (4-1), Port Huron (5-0) at Macomb L’Anse Creuse North (4-1).

Mid-Michigan

Pewamo-Westphalia (5-0) at Fowler (5-0)

These two started playing each other annually in 1966, and Fowler is the only league team that’s given the Pirates much trouble over the last several seasons. In fact, the Eagles are the only team that has defeated P-W in Central Michigan Athletic Conference play since 2010 – doing so four times. If last week’s 59-14 neutral-site win over Bark River-Harris is an indication, the Pirates are once again continuing to get stronger as the year goes on. But the Eagles already have three shutouts this fall, and as the teams have traded the last four meetings this would be Fowler’s turn on top after P-W won 37-6 a year ago. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hopkins (5-0) at Belding (5-0), Hartland (4-1) at Howell (5-0), Ovid-Elsie (3-2) at New Lothrop (4-1), Montrose (4-1) at Durand (3-2).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Maple City Glen Lake (3-2) at Oscoda (3-2)

Five teams in the Northern Michigan Football Conference are 3-2 or better, and while neither of these leads the league currently (that’s East Jordan), both have a chance to shake up the standings over the next four weeks. Oscoda has rebounded from two losses to already surpass last season’s win total, while Glen Lake is a reigning league champion but can’t afford a misstep after falling to East Jordan by a point in Week 3. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Elk Rapids (3-2) at Boyne City (3-2), Evart (3-2) at Manton (3-2), Gaylord (3-2) at Petoskey (3-2). SATURDAY Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (2-3) at Traverse City St. Francis (3-2).

Southeast & Border

Clinton (5-0) at Hudson (4-1)

Clinton and Ida are tied for first in the Lenawee County Athletic Association and meet in Week 7. But Hudson could throw a wrench into that matchup deciding a league championship share by extending its winning streak over Clinton to three. While the Redwolves have been impossible to stop so far scoring 43 or more points in every game and holding opponents to a combined 33 over five weeks, Hudson has reached 48 points three times in four games and given up more than six points just once. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Adrian (4-1) at Tecumseh (4-1), Leslie (4-1) at Manchester (4-1), Springport (4-1) at Reading (3-2), Ypsilanti Community (3-2) at Chelsea (5-0).

Southwest Corridor

Decatur (5-0) at Galesburg-Augusta (5-0)

Decatur is attempting to close in on a second-straight Southwest 10 Conference title and has won 14 straight league games over the last three seasons including what’s turned into a significant one in Week 1 this fall, 29-25 over Cassopolis. Galesburg-Augusta is among teams that came over from the Southwestern Athletic Conference for football this season and is enjoying its best run in decades – and a win over the Raiders would be the biggest highlight yet. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Schoolcraft (4-1) at Kalamazoo United (5-0), St. Joseph (4-1) at Portage Northern (3-2), Coldwater (4-1) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (4-1), Dowagiac (3-2) at Berrien Springs (5-0).

Upper Peninsula

L’Anse (3-2) at Bark River-Harris (4-1)

L’Anse is one of three teams in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron chasing Bark River-Harris, which fell last week to Division 7 contender Pewamo-Westphalia on a neutral field but otherwise is undefeated. The Broncos also have won all three recent meetings with L’Anse, but the Purple Hornets bounced back from two straight losses this fall to down Gwinn last week and are working to build on last season’s playoff appearance.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kingsford (5-0) at Hancock (3-2), Negaunee (3-2) at Ishpeming Westwood (2-3), Menominee (5-0) at Gladstone (1-4), Calumet (3-2) at Houghton (1-4).

West Michigan

Middleville Thornapple Kellogg (5-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (4-1)

Middleville has built well on last season’s 7-3 finish, already avenging last year’s one-point loss to Holland Christian and hoping for a similar result in this week’s matchup after falling to Grand Rapids Catholic Central 10-0 a year ago. The Trojans and Cougars are the early leaders in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black, and Catholic Central is coming off a notable 10-point win over East Grand Rapids – with its lone regular-season loss over the last two seasons in Week 2 to Chicago Kenwood Academy. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Rockford (3-2) at East Kentwood (5-0), Zeeland East (3-2) at Zeeland West (4-1), Byron Center (4-1) at Muskegon Mona Shore (4-1), Coopersville (5-0) at Sparta (3-2).

8-Player

Portland St. Patrick (5-0) at Pickford (5-0)

These two won’t meet in the playoffs as they are in different divisions, but they both might end up playing on the last day of the season at the Superior Dome. St. Patrick is a contender in Division 2, undefeated in part thanks to a forfeit win from Blanchard Montabella but also now riding an 18-game winning streak. Pickford is hoping for a title run in Division 1 and like the Shamrocks is annually capable of chasing that high bar.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Bridgman (4-1) at St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic (4-1), Norway (4-1) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (4-1), Kingston (4-1) at Deckerville (4-1), Climax-Scotts (4-1) at Marcellus (4-1).

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PHOTO Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary sophomore quarterback Mason Krager (13) scrambles to elude Fowler senior linebacker Jack O’Hare (52) during the second quarter of their season opener Aug. 28 in Saginaw. (Photo by Kolleth Photography.)